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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,301
  • Aug 12, 2016 6:27am Aug 12, 2016 6:27am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hi Fisher, Well, VSA is open to interpretation I guess, and it doesn't help that we're all using different volume proxies and different charts (4 hour bars starting at different times, for instance). I mostly rely on my own version of volume spread analysis using a home-made indicator. Maybe I shouldn't call it "VSA", but I don't know what else to call it! It attempts to quantify the accumulated buying and selling pressure at a granular level, but applied to a higher timeframe (e.g. the volume spread calculation is done on each minute bar...
NP, we only have clues and probabilities anyway and the market doesn't care about that, becouse this is all lagging anyway..
PVSRA
  • #142,302
  • Aug 12, 2016 6:27am Aug 12, 2016 6:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed but what we are tracking is not the complete inability of CBs in the bond market but rather the strong and v.scary fact that monetary policy and CB effectiveness are fading awayfast and showing very clear signals that macro structural factors are short-circuiting in the core.
Yes, this certainly is a worry mate! And thanks for the "tale of two knives" - very interesting! I think we have to ask ourselves two important questions about this impending CB meltdown:

1) When is it likely to start? Next week? Next month? Next year? Obviously an impossible question to answer, but will it really affect this short-term iteration we're trading now?

2) What affect will it have on EUR and USD? Which one will be bought (or sold) more? In recent times the euro seemed to carry more demand than the dollar as a risk-off currency, but in this case (Brexit, falling GBP and the state of Europe) maybe it won't? I really don't know.
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,303
  • Aug 12, 2016 7:16am Aug 12, 2016 7:16am
A soft European morning but more importantly YEN starting to struggle with the 102.xx handle. We are pretty much (and scarily) with the perfect and copy/paste storm on top as the day of the UK vote (Sterling -> Yen -> Euro -> the rest in a domino) but this time with a gloomier environment in the global economy.

Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Yes, this certainly is a worry mate! And thanks for the "tale of two knives" - very interesting! I think we have to ask ourselves two important questions about this impending CB meltdown: 1) When is it likely to start? Next week? Next month? Next year? Obviously an impossible question to answer, but will it really affect this short-term iteration we're trading now? 2) What affect will it have on EUR and USD? Which one will be bought (or sold) more? In recent times the euro seemed to carry more demand than the dollar as a risk-off currency,...
--> I personally 'don't like' what I am seeing both in FX and Bonds after the BOJ pseudo flop and BOE bazooka. Failure to take 102.3x in the next few sessions will leave the floor naked in UJ. Sterling triggering the capitulation move will not only put a hard end to European equities rally (btw all eyes 687x for those looking for the mid term swing in FTSE) but will trigger a WTF moment in UJ in a clean sweep 102.xx -> 94.7x for the fall.

Sterling, Yen and Euro one more time all aligned for sharp breaks. Dollar hanging still as a 'lone ranger' against all US macro numbers pointing to hike and every single country in the world devaluing its currency.

--> Fx markets are aligning for fast, sharp and very deep moves rather than soft and nice trend waves. Commodities are better position to hold the moves, Equities especially europeans are completely dislocated from macro numbers and outlook and are only riding free money while the doldrums of the summer. A sharp correction will cause them to cover on a rush (and I think thats is what is cooking in the background right now) for a +/-15% correction in the upcoming weeks.

--> Dollar as mentioned is hanging but the last 6 months or so has created a decent 'mattress' for the next round of hikes, making it only a matter of time [as early as today or Minutes next week ?] for FED to allow dollar to strengthen for the fall.

--> On Euro, 1.098x is the FA level on rates. That should be a fairly no brainer benchmark to gauge FED hikes expectations and European/world risk (more QE more cuts) in currencies. Meaning we will know exactly if and when we enter into the next macro wave ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,304
  • Aug 12, 2016 7:31am Aug 12, 2016 7:31am
Flop in all US numbers .... je je je ...

Eyes on the open and Consumer numbers. A flop there will leave us in the cluster fck in currencies until next week but will put US Equities in play for a fadable sucker rally by the close today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,305
  • Aug 12, 2016 7:32am Aug 12, 2016 7:32am
Quoting sisse
Flop in all US numbers .... je je je ... sisse
Data comes with FED mood , talk about rigged numbers from time to time...je je je .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,306
  • Aug 12, 2016 7:38am Aug 12, 2016 7:38am
Sorry late again but meant to say 10 mins ago I want to close my short for Iteration 17 early Thanks sisse
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #142,307
  • Aug 12, 2016 8:07am Aug 12, 2016 8:07am
Here we go for NY with a promising session in the making until Europe goes home. Eyes on OIL losing the 43.xx handle to put a final end to the rally, US equites for a sucker rally and more importantly YEN which is tripping down the 102.xx handle this time from the dollar front soft knee jerk reaction on reports.

Here flat in commodities, actively looking for positions in equities and same levels, same trades, same all in currencies....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,308
  • Aug 12, 2016 8:42am Aug 12, 2016 8:42am
Quoting hoom
1.118x and 1.098x are the only lvls in play for reference right now on higher TFs [the current range without clear breakout on any side ie neutral], overshoots over 1.12xx handle are just noise , direction hasn't changed although FED put a complex environment to trade but with BoE Bazooka things should be clearer [NFP also although it's out of context on macro analysis] ,we rolled under 1.118x and made lower high on a neutral distribution, r/r wise Sisse iteration explains it all ...US data tomorrow as mover and shaker , for sterling [cable] any...
Good post. Clear analysis. Used that spike to get in short gu @3022 this morning. More data to come and I guess I'll see if I made a good call with that or jumped the gun.
  • #142,309
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:10am Aug 12, 2016 9:10am
Slightl miss in US numbers. Happy days of free money in global equities are counted.

On the UK front as widely expected since before the vote. The first domino to fall was construction, we just got official confirmation that the sector entered in recession levels.

Nothing really major but facts confirming expectations. Sterling is still the one to trigger the next leg with Dollar pulling the last minute hand break every time we get closer to the cliff....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,310
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:30am Aug 12, 2016 9:30am
Quoting sisse
Slightl miss in US numbers. sisse
I don't get how non fundamental data could have such impact on the outlook! The strong NFP last week was enable to break 102.3 (UJ) and today we might have a drop to 96!? Any explanation?
  • #142,311
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:23am Aug 12, 2016 11:23am
Europe going home with Sterling on the brink. Not much to do except wait if we get a very late Black Friday session on thin air.


Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I don't get how non fundamental data could have such impact on the outlook! The strong NFP last week was enable to break 102.3 (UJ) and today we might have a drop to 96!? Any explanation?
You haven't been following the conversation. There have been massive fundamental game changers in play we have discussing all week. Bond markets are short-circuiting and CB policies are having zero impact in the underlyings they supposed to. Only bastards and very large investment banks riding free money in Equities are 'enjoying' the ride (not for much longer) on air.

Especially scary is the flop came from the UK (which is in a very particular case after Brexit), triggering Nov cuts expectations (check back posts)and more importantly unlocking the capitulation leg in sterling (imminent break down since earlier this week). Yen have also pretty much 'ignored' BOJ (which is also very scary) and now is on the launching platform via risk. ( sterling -> yen -> euro -> dollar -> the rest....)

In simple words, massive mover and shakers. You may getting blur by the headlines of the reports today. Which are important for the general macro trend especially inflation but there are bigger fishes in the pond in play right now and more importantly for the US, the Minutes next week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,312
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:54am Aug 12, 2016 11:54am
...and that was pretty much it for the day. 1.24xx on sight and trading range in GU. Only a 'miracle' will save Sterling but for this week all seem to be over. Only a last clearing up in equities in the closing range (not really expected) will carry the FX board as collateral of the Dollar.

Same in Euro we got the high and low of the week set already and we are ready to close the week on the top of next hour...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,313
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:25pm Aug 12, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting sisse
-> Fourth update from the BOE:

Changing short term outlook in EG from soft buy to buy. Eyeballing 0.88xx[in play] as main target before unlocking parity for the mid and long term.
Sterling keep getting hit, really active and getting hammered at key levels across the board. EG confirming the break 0.86xx and GJ losing the 131.xx handle for the week also triggering imminent break down alerts to soft and last soft support 126.0x. Below there is literally air and very little in between till the 116.xx lows but that will imply a panic leg.

Rather big and scary the moves cooking this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,314
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:43pm Aug 12, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with Sterling on the brink. Not much to do except wait if we get a very late Black Friday session on thin air. {quote} You haven't been following the conversation. There have been massive fundamental game changers in play we have discussing all week. Bond markets are short-circuiting and CB policies are having zero impact in the underlyings they supposed to. Only bastards and very large investment banks riding free money in Equities are 'enjoying' the ride (not for much longer) on air. Especially scary is the flop came from the...
Thanks so much! But why the market didn't really react when the news on bonds came for example, which directly related to Sterling whereas today's news was on US? I'm just expressing my view. No need for an answer.
  • #142,315
  • Aug 12, 2016 3:10pm Aug 12, 2016 3:10pm
Slightly bearish close in US equites for the first time in 7 consecutive non stop manic weeks. Good time for the 'traditional' US pre election chart update from +/- the same summer 2012 time which bizarrely looks extremely close TA formation at the top especially with this week close ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} ... only my: who should you vote for if you were one of the bastards? chart for my previous comment. sisse {image}
--> who should you vote for if you are trader, investor or if you care about the economy? ... sometimes market as so telling about the false perceptions we have in the political parties.

Shouldn't be the colours of the chart the other way around?, shouldn't be the steady and consistent rallies on the so call 'pro' business party and the choppy and retraces on the so call 'socialist' (from an american perception)party?...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MarektsandPolitics.png Size: 164 KB


In any case, US election will enter in full motion after the Minutes/in September.

Things hasn't changed much yet, very low political risk in play expected and as long as the gap is wide between Clinton and the other 'random' guy, markets would ignore political risk in general. However expecting real and large money to start slowly withdrawing from supporting stocks at the highs by the end of the summer until at least Q4 when things will be clearer in all fronts.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,316
  • Aug 12, 2016 3:34pm Aug 12, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Good post. Clear analysis. Used that spike to get in short gu @3022 this morning. More data to come and I guess I'll see if I made a good call with that or jumped the gun.
yep it was a good move direction wise , thx.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,317
  • Aug 12, 2016 3:52pm Aug 12, 2016 3:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> but will trigger a WTF moment in UJ in a clean sweep 102.xx -> 94.7x for the fall.
Where do get a target of 94.7x from if you don't mind me asking?

Are you looking back to April/May 2010?
If so why this area specifically?

Just trying to understand your thinking?
Why not for example 95.2x which I can also see looking left?

Thanks
  • #142,318
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:07pm Aug 12, 2016 4:07pm
...and we rolled. No surprise in the FX board. Dovish close in Euro and Sterling. Yen barely held but held at the end. It wont hold any risk leg. More importantly Dollar on a very bullish close aligning for a hawkish Minutes + Sell off across the FX board but the short-circuit on inflation numbers today will not be taken lightly.

Quoting suntan
{quote} ...Why not for example 95.2x which I can also see looking left? Thanks
Come on mate, do you really think a handful of ticks will make any difference in a 600 ticks play?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,319
  • Aug 15, 2016 2:04am Aug 15, 2016 2:04am
Just bellow 1330 mark is where Gold bulls will show their hand...
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