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  • #142,281
  • Aug 11, 2016 3:58pm Aug 11, 2016 3:58pm
Sisse,

Think you missed my sell in post 142249.

Thanks
Andrew
  • #142,282
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:01pm Aug 11, 2016 4:01pm
Flip 1.1230 for me.
  • #142,283
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:15pm Aug 11, 2016 4:15pm
As widely suspected something was cooking in the background in Sterling after the flop in the bond markets this week. Expectations of BOE Nov rate cut jumping to the roof. GU triggering for the third time since Brexit imminent major break down alerts for the roll. Losing 1.294x unlock the cliff one more time for 1.22xx with a intermediate stop on the 1.24xx handle.

All eyes on Sterling as it will carry Euro, Yen and the currency board. Here nothing to do in FX but wait to see if it pans out....

sisse



@ goose bone, PAStalker, Fadhl,CableFx1, Earlobe, Fisher755, goose bone, suntan (I added you in the list) about the flip....

Good very good you are on making this conversation better. We'll go in details in a few, lots of people newbies and not so new will benefit from your contributions in this discussion...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,284
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:19pm Aug 11, 2016 4:19pm
Not really good on flip lines still. I know they represent where price goes a lot and either goes thru or is rejected. I would pick .126x on Monthly chart and .1180 on weekly. If we were not in a Macro FA view of Sell for EU and GU economy, I would have passed on sisse's last iteration. However, we are in Neutral which I should wait for .128x. But, with present situation, I see that I could add at this level as GU could bring it down before it could get squeezed there.
  • #142,285
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:23pm Aug 11, 2016 4:23pm
Flip for me would be a daily close above 1.125.
Bit late yes I know!
  • #142,286
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:28pm Aug 11, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Not really good on flip lines still. I know they represent where price goes a lot and either goes thru or is rejected. I would pick .126x on Monthly chart and .1180 on weekly. If we were not in a Macro FA view of Sell for EU and GU economy, I would have passed on sisse's last iteration. However, we are in Neutral which I should wait for .128x. But, with present situation, I see that I could add at this level as GU could bring it down before it could get squeezed there.
I wont bias the discussion right now. We'll let the markets talk first and then we will get back to review in detail each one of the comments on the flip. That way people will make their own interpretations (right or wrong) in their own words (views) and can look back and say AHHA or fck off ...

Whatever the case i thing the level of the discussion TA wise and proper decision in the iterations has dramatically improve in the last few weeks while two of the most important points in all these iterations are getting across very strong:

-> Don't try to trade to the tick; and
-> Money is in managing risk not in shooting at everything that moves (overtrading),

I have the feeling that these last 5 iterations are going to leave huge positives when we wrap them up ...for now, lets market talk.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,287
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:28pm Aug 11, 2016 4:28pm
I know .108x is a level and .097x is a major one for me. We still get close to it but as of last couple weeks retreated from it and .108X. Thin markets a factor as well
  • #142,288
  • Aug 11, 2016 4:37pm Aug 11, 2016 4:37pm
My guess for Flip would be 1.1180/1.1190 area
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #142,289
  • Aug 11, 2016 7:52pm Aug 11, 2016 7:52pm
Not sure if qualifies for an AHA moment but now that I am starting to get into a rough understanding of flip level and what it means for where and when price is in its flow, and a bit more about how to spot it, it just might qualify. When I had focused on 1160 as the flip, my entry long at 1180 was a very different leap to make with regard to rr and direction than that entry was with a flip at 1190. I'm not sure if either is the flip for this iteration tbh (I can see 1190 now pretty clear compared but still may be missing it) but either way my takeaway has been more about how important an understanding of that one part of the picture is. Might lose a few pennies diving in live with a half baked grasp on this one but I got a feeling it will end up worth it if I can get a (mostly baked) grasp on flip.
  • #142,290
  • Aug 11, 2016 8:24pm Aug 11, 2016 8:24pm
For me, flip is 1.1103
  • #142,291
  • Aug 11, 2016 8:33pm Aug 11, 2016 8:33pm
1.118x and 1.098x are the only lvls in play for reference right now on higher TFs [the current range without clear breakout on any side ie neutral], overshoots over 1.12xx handle are just noise , direction hasn't changed although FED put a complex environment to trade but with BoE Bazooka things should be clearer [NFP also although it's out of context on macro analysis] ,we rolled under 1.118x and made lower high on a neutral distribution, r/r wise Sisse iteration explains it all ...US data tomorrow as mover and shaker , for sterling [cable] any laggers could benefit from a spike [levels were pointed out in previous posts] GL all trading the breakout and next swings for september play ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,292
  • Aug 11, 2016 10:59pm Aug 11, 2016 10:59pm
Quoting CableFx1
To be honest, I have no idea what a flip is or how to spot it. According to Investopedia : {image}
Good point, CableFx1. If you don't know what the flip is then it's pretty hard to find it! As far as I know, Sisse has never told us directly how he finds the flip zone during the last few months on this thread, but he has provided lots of hints and charts to help us find it for ourselves. For instance, the following extract from this post might be useful:

Price action for trading can be summarised in 1 line:

--> Support / Resistance. Break / Fade. Retrace / Pullback / Continuation. Extension / cluster fuck. Volatility expansion / compression .

Try to find the flip. The answer is in one of those...

As far as I'm concerned, the short-term flip seems to be around the 1.108x level at the moment. This coincides nicely with the weekly open too. The reasons I bought at 1.1180 rather than sold are:

- no good reason for USD to become stronger in the short-term
- no good reason for EUR to become weaker in the short-term
- 1.108x held and current momentem is up
- no obvious selling pressure from a VSA point-of-view
- 1.1180 is an attractive place to short for many people so the smart money might try to take advantage of that with a short squeeze

On the other hand, there are a few good reasons to go short or stay out:

- 1.1180 is near the top of the recent range and Sisse's short-term outlook is neutral (but note that there was a daily close above the range on 2nd August)
- the gilts reverse-auction fiasco on Tuesday is a cause for concern, as Sisse has already mentioned (but note that the auction went well the following day)

To summarise I didn't have a strong conviction to go long and probably should have stayed out. But I can't usually particpiate in these exercises because of my timezone so I decided to go for it! And in live trading I kept my position size small due to lack of conviction, which is another important lesson for newcomers. In fact, the most I can lose on this position is 0.5% of my account if price reaches 1.1080, but I'll probably exit before then if things look bad.

Just my opinion on things... I could be totally wrong! (it has been known ). Over to you Sisse...
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,293
  • Edited 11:57pm Aug 11, 2016 11:40pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Good point, CableFx1. If you don't know what the flip is then it's pretty hard to find it! As far as I know, Sisse has never told us directly how he finds the flip zone during the last few months on this thread, but he has provided lots of hints and charts to help us find it for ourselves. For instance, the following extract from this post might be useful: Price action for trading can be summarised in 1 line: --> Support / Resistance. Break / Fade. Retrace / Pullback...
This one is not so true:
- no obvious selling pressure from a VSA point-of-view




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VSA is a part of PVSRA, so here is my view....
So from PVSRA point of view this is most probably short trade, but not confirmed at the time of entry. There was some selling pressure on H4 candle following the high activity at recent swing high bullish candle. It is not coloured, but the volume was higher than average (rejection at SR level) which could indicate some selling ( a sneaky one of course ).
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PVSRA
  • #142,294
  • Edited 11:53pm Aug 11, 2016 11:42pm | Edited 11:53pm
Flip for me is 1.11149/5

From the TA side, no closes below 1.108x or 1.110.

On the FA side, since Draghi put his foot in the ass of QE, then I expect markets to look to NZD, AUD, and other commodity currencies.
  • #142,295
  • Aug 12, 2016 1:32am Aug 12, 2016 1:32am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} This one is not so true: - no obvious selling pressure from a VSA point-of-view {image} VSA is a part of PVSRA, so here is my view.... So from PVSRA point of view this is most probably short trade, but not confirmed at the time of entry. There was some selling pressure on H4 candle following the high activity at recent swing high bullish candle. It is not coloured, but the volume was higher than average (rejection at SR level) which could indicate some selling ( a sneaky one of course ). {image}
So these graphs show 'volume' figures from your 'broker' and your broker alone? What percentage of the market does your broker have 'control' of and how does this compare with other brokers?
TIA
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #142,296
  • Aug 12, 2016 1:51am Aug 12, 2016 1:51am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} So these graphs show 'volume' figures from your 'broker' and your broker alone? What percentage of the market does your broker have 'control' of and how does this compare with other brokers? TIA
% is not important. What is important is relative high volume compared to previous candles. At any decent broker. It shows activity (interest) at certain areas (SR areas) and together with PA it can give you clues of what might come.
Volume alone, or PA alone, or SR level/area alone is not so good in giving clues.
PVSRA
  • #142,297
  • Aug 12, 2016 2:44am Aug 12, 2016 2:44am
Quoting sisse
A v. basic and soft day across the board. Clearing 2nd target in OIL testing the $43.xx handle with Europe going home while ...
Quoting sisse
--> OIL inherit FA starting to play from this week (we haven't have a play since back in June OPEC) via the Saudis and it will hold as long as Equities hold the last free money break (41.1x [check] to complete the leg to 44.xx [check] handle) but we are aligning to trade and close around $35.xx for the fa
Chin Chin Chin... OIL completing the move to the 44.xx handle in nothing but a flawless trade here. Well done to all that rode it from 40.3x.

More importantly inline/marginally better numbers from the EZ (still a few to come) but rather soft numbers from China. All softer numbers from manufacturing and related front across the world this month and for that reason:

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from buy to neutral until further data. US equities holding the highs will decide the faith of Commodities for this month.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,298
  • Edited 3:36am Aug 12, 2016 2:58am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting CableFx1
To be honest, I have no idea what a flip is or how to spot it. According to Investopedia : {image}
A month ago I spent a weekend reading every single post going back at least 100 pages.
It was hard on the eyes to track, and admittedly, I've only absorbed around 50% of the concept.
I started from when IMARICH1 began his journey, which is a very good starting point.

I made a note somewhere (based on something Sisse said) that 'the flip' was a level on the weekly chart
(closest to the current price) that has acted as a magnet for price action, e.g. over the previous 3-6 months.

It usually stands out (to me) because candles repeatedly swing above/below a specific level many many times as if it is a level of interest (for whatever reason).

As of today, candles have crossed (flipped over) the 116x level 16 times going back to jan 2016 (the most crosses within that 6 month period). In the absence of any other definition of a 'flip' I used this as my flip locator.

I'm probably wrong (and have misunderstood Sisse), but without a stricter definition of a 'flip' this is how I chose the 1160 level.

Attached Image
  • #142,299
  • Aug 12, 2016 3:05am Aug 12, 2016 3:05am
Quoting NorthTrader
...the gilts reverse-auction fiasco on Tuesday is a cause for concern, as Sisse has already mentioned (but note that the auction went well the following day) ...
Indeed but what we are tracking is not the complete inability of CBs in the bond market but rather the strong and v.scary fact that monetary policy and CB effectiveness are fading awayfast and showing very clear signals that macro structural factors are short-circuiting in the core.

The UK case was very telling given the circumstances (BOE outlook, Brexit and all that) as its not about bastards screaming for more free money (US) or desperation measures to revive a comatose patience (BOJ) or because of short term economic factors (RBA, RBNZ , ETC) but was about urgent measure to avoid a major financial shock in the upcoming months which by default/theory is where CBs policies in the Bond market should be 100% effective....

What is more dangerous a dull or a sharp knife? ...the analogy below exemplify the main problem right now with CBs across the world.

===== & =====

A tale of two knives (from a fellow trader email, taken from somewhere in the inter-webs)


"Sharp knives and dull knives damage in different ways and which is ultimately safer for you depends on a number of different factors. Sharp knives damage from poor knife handling skills, leading the knife to go not where the cook intended, leading to knicks and slices. The more inexperienced you are, the faster you are working and the less attention you are paying, the more likely this is to occur.

Dull knives injure when resistance suddenly gives way, leading to large pent up energies accelerating the knife into flesh, leading to deep cuts and gouges. This occurs, largely independent of the knife skills of the cook.

More importantly, knife injuries occur far more frequently when knife sharpness changes dramatically as established muscle pathways are no longer valid. You should take extra care when cutting with a newly sharpened knife as this is a very common source of kitchen injuries.

For cooks who do everything "by the book", a sharp knife is dramatically safer than a dull knife. For cooks familiar with cutting with sharp knives, sharp knives are also safer as the muscle pathways have been established. Cooks who are only used to dull knives will frequently injure or nearly injure themselves early on when handling sharp knives but, subsequently, with good technique, sharp knives will be safe."

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,300
  • Aug 12, 2016 6:14am Aug 12, 2016 6:14am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} This one is not so true: - no obvious selling pressure from a VSA point-of-view
Hi Fisher,

Well, VSA is open to interpretation I guess, and it doesn't help that we're all using different volume proxies and different charts (4 hour bars starting at different times, for instance). I mostly rely on my own version of volume spread analysis using a home-made indicator. Maybe I shouldn't call it "VSA", but I don't know what else to call it! It attempts to quantify the accumulated buying and selling pressure at a granular level, but applied to a higher timeframe (e.g. the volume spread calculation is done on each minute bar of a daily bar and plotted on a daily chart). Sometimes it alerts you to "hidden" buying or selling, and sometimes it doesn't. At the moment it isn't showing much of anything on 6E, so that's why I didn't feel compelled to go short. But you can't rely on it much of course, it was just one reason of several.

Thanks for your views and charts!

Cheers,
NT
You reap what you sow.
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