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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,181
  • Aug 7, 2016 5:10am Aug 7, 2016 5:10am
Quoting fti
{image}
this was not my post!

it was santos post

i was just confused on your 813 post, but you gave me the answers already.

Ruben
  • #55,182
  • Edited 5:31am Aug 7, 2016 5:18am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} this was not my post! it was santos post
hahahaha noted.
now you csn understand when i saying i weak energies.
sorry.

regards


ok for you.
do you know what the fibo is used for?
don'e explain.
just yes or no is ok.


is not 813 is 2B = double bottom

ok let me see what post 813 is.
  • #55,183
  • Aug 7, 2016 5:26am Aug 7, 2016 5:26am
Quoting fti
{quote} hahahaha noted. now you csn understand when i saying i weak energies. sorry. regards ok for you. do you know what the fibo is used for? don'e explain. just yes or no is ok.
yes

no not 2B, post 813, on page 41 of this thread if im correct.

"Many analyst uses the this spiral ( some use fibonacci retacements) on price and although this is an accepted branch of TA. It builds blind reliance on "hope" factor. I use it as true to initial research basis and use it on size of position as in Money management."

that was the part of the confusion, but you already gave me the answer, thereby i am having a clearer view of your foundation of how to trade.
  • #55,184
  • Edited 6:14am Aug 7, 2016 5:41am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} i am struggling to what you use by reading the market, you say many times in your tread that you use the wave counting part, but isn't there a possibility to only use chart, and strenght of her moves. only use the power of her moves (that is what you call waves), and just reading that. but i,m getting confused, because i've also readed you use the golden ratio as an initial base for the research. i just want to focus on price without all the hodgepodge. maybe it is just the chaos in my mind, but i want a confirm that what i am doing (completely...
ok lets see if my mind is still alive.

ok you are wrong to assume i use fibo on prices.
The wave counts is Elliott wave count.

The strength of the moves is determined by the gradient of the volitility. ATR.(average true range) visually determined.
example.
If i trade a triangle. if triangle is abc wave complete. The time window will be abc on symmetrical volitility gradient.
If is a wave 5 traiangle, will be wave 5 time window which is will be longer than abc time window , because the mother pattern congested, That why is 5 wave triangle. So position will have more tolerance and non time window symmetry is acceptable.

Fibo is used on the money management. ie position exposure VAR(value at risk)
never used to determine retracement pivots.
What the retracement market does , tells me, how aggressive my next position impliments.
which i engage , within the general time window allowed.
If it exceeds time aspects i square out regardless of pattern expectations.

clear?

regards
try find study fibo mass and extentions stability .
i DO NOT do fibo prices PREDICTIONS.
i NEVER PREDICT ANYTHING IN PRICES.
markets determines what these should be by supply demand.
and she tells me , what she saw how big they are, and i respond to that.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS, thats big fallacy.
no VOODOO stuff.
  • #55,185
  • Edited 6:45am Aug 7, 2016 5:54am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok lets see if my mind is still alive. ok you are wrong to assume i use fibo on prices. The wave counts is Elliott. The strength of the moves is determined by the gradient of the volitility. ATR.(average true range)
yes the assumpion of fibo on prices was indeed wrong, that was were the confusion was mostly about.

yes the wave counts.

that was the thing it keeps going around in my head.

namely, the waves are just bearish/bullish legs i believe,

and what i get out of this thread is that price is everything, follow, never anticipate/predict.

so why not forget all the waves, and go with the bullish/bearish legs, because all one need is what the price is showing.

thanks for the fibo info, i vaguely knew that you used it for MM, take profit and rescue L-size, but that was just vaguely, you gave me a clearer picture of that now.


yes thanks i've got a better grip on it now.

really appreciated!

Ruben
  • #55,186
  • Edited 3:50pm Aug 7, 2016 6:38am | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} so why not forget all the waves, and go with the bullish/bearish legs, . Ruben
wave counts gives you the sense, where price is , sitting "now".
whether its within stable progression or is in utter unbalance state.
If is in unbalance state, it tells you that something is happening in the fundamental front, one may not be aware of, creating the unbalance.
Recognising that allows one to strategise to capitalise on the unbalance with appropraite positioning and sizing.
Unbalance with higher than ave volitility indicates market panic, ie shock.
In shock state, strategies need be more aggressive. responsive and proactive, esp if caught on the wrong side of the curve.
In balance state one can wait. bargain entry, with smaller packages.

lay men language, tells you if you can wait , or you have to go/flip.
if unbalance is in abc wave, is nothing to worry yet.
unbalance in wave 4 is tsunami/trend.
hesitation is dangerous.

regards

in other words, wave count advices you possible nature of terrain you navigating.
YOU need find appropriate strategies , take the bull by the horns.
  • #55,187
  • Edited 4:00pm Aug 7, 2016 3:05pm | Edited 4:00pm
ok for those who knows about the nic story.
The wrong turn was.
MINDSET.
His trade strategies tools were not wrong.
His mindset.
Believing when caught against trend, that if he held on long enough, it will come back.
Actually it will, but not before taking your trades out.
This was also the case in nelson bunker hunt story , when cornered the silver market.
This the dangers of margining trades.

Nic's falsification of documentation , i cannot comment, because that is fraud. Which he went to jail for.
The bank's mistake was that it allowed nic to head both trade and back office operation.
Which allow him opportunity hide things under carpets/phantom accounts.

For retail traders the lesson is that if trader ever takes on position that over extends your financial capacity in leveraged positions, it can send you into very dark corners. Always mark profit or losses to "marked to market VAR"(value at risk).
To the mind is not big sin, just risk. To the book, it can create unrecoverable spirals.
There fore be adviced , greed kills books. Never take on positions more than one's book can handle. If that risk taking becomes habit. The destruction comes. Is not a matter of, if it will come, is when it will come.
You are traders, your job is to manage and stir the book safely.
Safety first before ROI.

Learn from others mistakes. And never allow it to happen to YOU.
And also remember, the market is bigger than any trader. Have humility , even if one is very profitable, Do not slip, or be rigid and arrogant.
However successful, ego still can kill.


regards

And i no energy advice you about position locking. Have been discussed umteen times on thread.

during meditation , these points came to visit me.
Be adviced.

oh another thing, never trade with debt money. YOU becomes very unstable mentally. Will lack mind robustness.
  • #55,188
  • Aug 7, 2016 4:52pm Aug 7, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting fti
ok for those who knows about the nic story. The wrong turn was. MINDSET. His trade strategies tools were not wrong. His mindset. Believing when caught against trend, that if he held on long enough, it will come back. Actually it will, but not before taking your trades out. This was also the case in nelson bunker hunt story , when cornered the silver market. This the dangers of margining trades. Nic's falsification of documentation , i cannot comment, because that is fraud. Which he went to jail for. The bank's mistake was that it allowed nic to...
regards
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #55,189
  • Aug 8, 2016 12:52am Aug 8, 2016 12:52am
i don't have time machine

http://www.investors.com/how-to-inve...t-these-bases/

just lucky.... happy monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 time machine.png Size: 22 KB
  • #55,190
  • Aug 8, 2016 1:16am Aug 8, 2016 1:16am
Quoting Soekarno
{quote} regards


regards
  • #55,191
  • Edited 1:31am Aug 8, 2016 1:20am | Edited 1:31am
Quoting Santoso777
i don't have time machine http://www.investors.com/how-to-inve...t-these-bases/ just lucky.... happy monday {image}
noted.
neither do i, nor all traders.
So we can only trade what comes up on the right side of the charts.


happy monday.

regards

Your hourly chart is indicating trade spread is 100 pips. when the dealers comes into the markets.
Without the 5 mins charts is difficult determine where the duck ponds. Market ducks reach is about in test of 50 pips serachlights.
Market is in broadening pattern southward extensions. Non aggressive stance.
Chances is dealers are easing markets down cautiously. Whenever they can find good bids.
i am not in market, so i cannot tell you whats driving the markets,
  • #55,192
  • Aug 8, 2016 1:35am Aug 8, 2016 1:35am
vic.
Its monday?

have a nice week.

In any trades?

regards
  • #55,193
  • Aug 8, 2016 3:17am Aug 8, 2016 3:17am
[quote=fti;9069786]
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Follow. The strategy , is because , only the mm and bb( big boys) can lead. Unless one has the overview of markets, or the size to impact market, LEAD will not be your arsenals. I do not believe, retail has clout to impact market, retail cannot influence market unless there is market moving fundamentals. Timing is key to profitabi;ity. If timing is out then, size scaling rescues is critical for survival. I had discovered no other way. regards


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,194
  • Aug 8, 2016 3:40am Aug 8, 2016 3:40am
Quoting fti
vic. Its monday? have a nice week. In any trades? regards

Na chief,

soon though .... may be saying Bye bye to titan, after that may be



V
  • #55,195
  • Aug 8, 2016 3:58am Aug 8, 2016 3:58am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Na chief, soon though .... may be saying Bye bye to titan, after that may be V
understood.

regards
  • #55,196
  • Aug 8, 2016 3:59am Aug 8, 2016 3:59am
[quote=alexandria;9072191]
Quoting fti
{quote} Alex


regards
  • #55,197
  • Aug 8, 2016 8:17am Aug 8, 2016 8:17am
Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,198
  • Aug 8, 2016 1:41pm Aug 8, 2016 1:41pm
for chief eyes only

Inserted Video
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #55,199
  • Aug 8, 2016 4:08pm Aug 8, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting Jacque
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBcqria2wmg


regards
  • #55,200
  • Edited 4:28pm Aug 8, 2016 4:10pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting priceaction1
for chief eyes only https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aFckbGH0sI
wah, for my eyes only.
ok noted.

eeeeer what was the problem?

if there's a nail sticking out of the floor, it should be hammered in?
if the nail is sticking out of the floor, don't use hammer, hammer it?
put a carpet over it?
create a problem, make a product to solve it?

To me, the old sun is new everyday.

regards

i get it.
marketing?
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