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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,161
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:09am Aug 5, 2016 7:09am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} No, i know iT is probably the bias, expactations and fear That is hinder me to use the knowledge of this thread, iT Goes a little bit better, but iT is still a very difficult work in progress. thanks for your help, and nice video btw
Hi

May I also advise a little - think of the story of those darn pigs in that darn swamp - and think of AOW ---- as you trade think about who is getting trapped in and out of situations - where do they put stops/breakouts/breakevens/entries - do you not think others think this cannot go on much more and peeps will use those thoughts- maybe review your trades and fears and see where the signs were. FTI tells us market always lets us know - just we often do not listen - we need to follow not lead.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,162
  • Edited Aug 6, 2016 6:37am Aug 5, 2016 11:51am | Edited Aug 6, 2016 6:37am
[quote=alexandria;9069044]{quote} Hi May I also advise a little - think of the story of those darn pigs in that darn swamp - and think of AOW ---- as you trade think about who is getting trapped in and out of situations - where do they put stops/breakouts/breakevens/entries - do you not think others think this cannot go on much more and peeps will use those thoughts- maybe review your trades and fears and see where the signs were. FTI tells us market always lets us know - just we often do not listen - we need to follow not lead.

Follow.
The strategy , is because , only the mm and bb( big boys) can lead.
Unless one has the overview of markets, or the size to impact market, LEAD will not be your arsenals.
I do not believe, retail has clout to impact market, retail cannot influence market unless there is market moving fundamentals.

Timing is key to profitabi;ity. If timing is out then, size scaling rescues is critical for survival.
I had discovered no other way.


regards
  • #55,163
  • Aug 5, 2016 4:02pm Aug 5, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Vic i am good thanks, hope things are well with you my friend, good to see you here again . regards Phil.

I am good Phil,

making some changes to life, if all goes to plan will join you guys soon.


Thanks
V
  • #55,164
  • Edited 8:56am Aug 6, 2016 5:46am | Edited 8:56am
The secrets. formation & strategies. extensions , mobility. sunbing

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biggest lesson.
No one however big should depend only on 1 , however trustworthy.
therefore it behoves trader , however skillful should never depend on only 1 access to markets.
remember , this is very important lesson.


regards
  • #55,165
  • Aug 6, 2016 6:30am Aug 6, 2016 6:30am
Inserted Video
  • #55,166
  • Edited 9:57am Aug 6, 2016 9:03am | Edited 9:57am
Y
hahahaha why you ask?
I am YX no XX. some is XO?xoxo

Inserted Video


eeeer can i ask is lion related to gangkiss kan?
hahahah test my mouth . get dna of my food?
ai ya get seaman sample la.


regards

ok retest retest.
everyone , please bring out your ancestry? hahahahahahaha
girls no necessary. lulu also no need. hahahahaha
and don't ask Y. checking Y.
  • #55,167
  • Edited 9:56pm Aug 6, 2016 12:36pm | Edited 9:56pm
hahahahahaha choice.

Inserted Video


We have a choice to be MAN or we can choose to be MONKEY.
Choose wisely, your training.

we can choose to be MAN, but the monkeys will always be around us. That we no choice. Seems they in charge of the zoo.
nonono, cannot change zoos, you are born in this zoo.
after you died , if you want to change zoo?
well , we can discuss that after you are dead.
For now, you have a choice.

regards

Be Prepared, new species of monkeys on the way.
We their gods.
Be fore warned.
we evil gods. Driven by commerce and little morals. mainly deceived.
bm installments due yet?

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/08/0...usaolp00001357
  • #55,168
  • Aug 6, 2016 3:53pm Aug 6, 2016 3:53pm
Hello to everyone. When it goes to the technical analysis, I think that the critical fallacy is that most of the tools of TA are based on nothing (like indicators that actualy are nothing but the results of math operations with price data). Each moving of the prices has some reason in it. Some of them can be found during the researches. When you find it, you will have the edge that may become the fundament for building the strategy. But most of the traders prefer to combine 50 moving averages with oscillators and then become wondered when their money go to the zero point.
  • #55,169
  • Aug 6, 2016 9:39pm Aug 6, 2016 9:39pm
http://www.stock-trading-infocentre....dlesticks.html
  • #55,170
  • Aug 7, 2016 1:01am Aug 7, 2016 1:01am
Hi, fti.... what do you think, about this article?

"How did famous traders like George Soros, Jesse Livermore, and Warren Buffet make their millions (and billions) in the markets? Not through complicated trading software or lagging indicator based trading methods, but through a discretionary market perspective that was developed through an awareness of price dynamics and market conditions in the various markets they traded."
  • #55,171
  • Edited 1:56am Aug 7, 2016 1:07am | Edited 1:56am
Quoting Santoso777
Hi, fti.... what do you think, about this article? "How did famous traders like George Soros, Jesse Livermore, and Warren Buffet make their millions (and billions) in the markets? Not through complicated trading software or lagging indicator based trading methods, but through a discretionary market perspective that was developed through an awareness of price dynamics and market conditions in the various markets they traded."

In I breath you named.
broke the back of iron lady, bucket shopper and coca cola.
and you ask me how?
eeeer what are you expect me say?

all have very dynamic brain. and they market movers.
Try remember, you are trading retail.
By the way, do you know what happened to jesse?

regards

ok just for education.
the difference between success & failure, a thin thread, ante...... eeer just look below.
This also very dynamic, took 1 wrong turn.
look below.
Was pit counterparty trader, good man, so no judgement. just took 1 wrong turn.
just for you to think. ok.
Buy his book? buy the dvd?

all it takes is , wrong mindset.
the tools in the bag, they are not so different.
  • #55,172
  • Aug 7, 2016 1:45am Aug 7, 2016 1:45am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_Trader_%28book%29

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_Trader_%28film%29
  • #55,173
  • Aug 7, 2016 1:58am Aug 7, 2016 1:58am
Quoting fti
{quote} In I breath you named. broke the back of iron lady, bucket shopper and coca cola. and you ask me how? eeeer what are you expect me say? all have very dynamic brain. and they market movers. Try remember, you are trading retail. By the way, do you know what happened to jesse? regards ok just for education. the difference between success & failure, a thin thread, ante...... eeer just look below. This also very dynamic, took 1 wrong turn. look below. Was pit counterparty trader, good man, so no judgement. just took 1 wrong turn....
ok, i tried to understand.... i'm also contribute a song....

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  • #55,174
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:09am Aug 7, 2016 2:09am
Quoting Santoso777
{quote} ok, i tried to understand.... i'm also contribute a song.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-di...2SWP1I&index=4
okok since you retail.
here.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #55,175
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:24am Aug 7, 2016 2:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} okok since you retail. here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B8fGmKjNEM regards
i thought you know nick lesson personaly, or you ever meet him in trading floor, correct?
  • #55,176
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:40am Aug 7, 2016 2:40am
this is very long thread, but i read in page 1, you said:
"I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion."

you = Psychology
capitalisation = money management

market structure is how to read the market, dance, follow the trend, like this chart.... is that correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: downtrend.png Size: 37 KB
  • #55,177
  • Edited 3:47am Aug 7, 2016 2:45am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting Santoso777
this is very long thread, but i read in page 1, you said: "I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion." you = Psychology capitalisation = money management market structure is how to read the market, dance, follow the trend, like this chart.... is that correct? {image}
no

you=YOU.

you learning from book.
its not so complicated.

hind sight, is not tradable.
unless if you have time machine.

regards


yes

if you do not manage your risk prudently.
some one takes $$$ from you.
in trading pit , is the one who's shouting at you and showing his fingers.
you show wrong finger and you in trade arbitration.
in computerised trade matching, its beep. you're order is executed.

eeeer structure is the trade flow hierachy. Has many tiers.
Thats why i tell you , if you try to trade like jorge, or buffet, you will burnt.
Try remember , you are trading retail ticket.

and reading chart is not so simple as you plotted.
otherwise everyone will be billionaire.
so easy meh.
higher high , lower low? no terrain?

what do you do if higher high , you buy the offer and the bid gets hit?

In studies you can guess if you a man or a monkey ancestry.
In trading , you need to know. cannot guess.
know what to do. when and how big is safe for you.
Is same as drink tequila pop. YOU choke, trade dies.
  • #55,178
  • Aug 7, 2016 4:11am Aug 7, 2016 4:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} no you=YOU. you learning from book. its not so complicated. hind sight, is not tradable. unless if you have time machine. regards yes if you do not manage your risk prudently. some one takes $$$ from you. in trading pit , is the one who's shouting at you and showing his fingers. you show wrong finger and you in trade arbitration. in computerised trade matching, its beep. you're order is executed. eeeer structure is the trade flow hierachy. Has many tiers. Thats why i tell you , if you try to trade like jorge, or buffet, you will burnt....

i am struggling to what you use by reading the market, you say many times in your tread that you use the wave counting part, but isn't there a possibility to only use chart, and strenght of her moves. only use the power of her moves (that is what you call waves), and just reading that.

but i,m getting confused, because i've also readed you use the golden ratio as an initial base for the research.

i just want to focus on price without all the hodgepodge.

maybe it is just the chaos in my mind, but i want a confirm that what i am doing (completely focussing on her movements) is right, so i can build in that direction.

because now i am doubting i am missing the part of the spiral, then i am back to the drawing table, and end a thousand directions.

i hope you can confirm purely focussing on price is al it matters.


ruben
  • #55,179
  • Edited 5:00am Aug 7, 2016 4:36am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} i am struggling to what you use by reading the market, you say many times in your tread that you use the wave counting part, but isn't there a possibility to only use chart, and strenght of her moves. only use the power of her moves (that is what you call waves), and just reading that. but i,m getting confused, because i've also readed you use the golden ratio as an initial base for the research. i just want to focus on price without all the hodgepodge. maybe it is just the chaos in my mind, but i want a confirm that what i am doing (completely...
struggling is correct.
i already detected.

to help you along.

1.wave count must curve fit.
if curve cannot fit. must do fast damage control. esp if time windows skews. The more experienced you are, the more nimble will be your damage control.
if you robot/biased, then i am sorry.
BUT if they got you by the horns.
CUT the dang loss already. esp if near 3X daily pee average.

2. i do not do fibo series on prices.
i do not know where you got that idea.
just because other analysts does it on price, you cannot assume that i do also.
Anyway if you read thread you will know what i do. Others have given me feedback that they understand.
So i don't know how help you understand.

3. Is easier train thinking minds, less assumptions.

Sorry to be very blunt, but you I detect you learning by reading only.
The way, is learning by reading, DOING and learning from markets.
The books gives you concept.
After learning concepts, you must learn to apply. how to apply. and under what condition cannot apply. seek safety.
these can only learn from doing.

example your chart.
1. you mark the pins but you already fixed channels lines. so your trades will mostly be late.
2. your trade decision process will be bias by the lines.
3.Your channel lines have no basis, Trendlines have basis/conditions. I look at your lines i cannot see fulfill any TA criterias.

Again sorry to be too blunt.
Normally i would try show you.
Already done many times on thread. Mostly becaus e my energies too low.
May be someones on thread can try help you. sorry.

regards

PS: i can see, the down trend you marked had already ended.
But you didn;t analysed. So you picking on what you want to analyse.
so you have position bias.
thats not following market. You are deciding your prefered bias.
you are telling markets what you want. correct?



regards
  • #55,180
  • Aug 7, 2016 4:48am Aug 7, 2016 4:48am
Quoting fti
{quote} struggling is correct. i already detected. to help you along. 1.wave count must curve fit. if curve cannot fit. must do fast damage control. esp if time windows skews. The more experienced you are, the more nimble will be your damage control. if you robot/biased, then i am sorry. BUT if they got you by the horns. CUT the dang loss already. esp if near 3X daily pee average. 2. i do not do fibo series on prices. i do not know where you got that idea. just because other analysts does it on price, you cannot assume that i do also. Anyway if...

no i've readed it, but it was mostly the part where i thought you said you used the spiral as part of your reasarch. (post 813)

but i have my answer, thanks for that.

Ruben
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