Confusion over upcoming NFP data and technical indicators | Forex Factory

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Confusion over upcoming NFP data and technical indicators

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 5, 2016 4:27am Aug 5, 2016 4:27am
So I was doing my research today and well of course saw the 180k stated figure for the NFP which, if it does turn out to be the case, will increase the value of the dollar. This being said therefore should entail that going long on the EUR/USD for...say...the next few hours is stupid, not so? However after having had a quick glance at the technical indicators on Investing.com they all seem to showing "Buy" or "Strong Buy". How is this going to be a profitable investment? Surely going short on the EUR/USD is a lot more smarter if you intend on closing your trade, say, before the weekend. I am somewhat of a newbie and your help explaining this would be greatly appreciated!
  • #2
  • Aug 6, 2016 6:09am Aug 6, 2016 6:09am
The NFP is a fundamental high impact event. Technical indicators don't take fundamentals into consideration, they're purely based on math, not on human reaction and as such they are useless during such events.
  • #3
  • Aug 7, 2016 1:08am Aug 7, 2016 1:08am
Quoting xaviergoby
So I was doing my research today and well of course saw the 180k stated figure for the NFP which, if it does turn out to be the case, will increase the value of the dollar. This being said therefore should entail that going long on the EUR/USD for...say...the next few hours is stupid, not so? However after having had a quick glance at the technical indicators on Investing.com they all seem to showing "Buy" or "Strong Buy". How is this going to be a profitable investment? Surely going short on the EUR/USD is a lot more smarter if you intend on closing...
1) The NFP is a key event
2) It is popular and widely followed
3) The hype and "news" before the event is a circus
4) The purpose is to cause the maximum financial damage to the maximum number of accounts.
  • #4
  • Aug 7, 2016 9:38pm Aug 7, 2016 9:38pm
Quoting xaviergoby
So I was doing my research today and well of course saw the 180k stated figure for the NFP which, if it does turn out to be the case, will increase the value of the dollar. This being said therefore should entail that going long on the EUR/USD for...say...the next few hours is stupid, not so? However after having had a quick glance at the technical indicators on Investing.com they all seem to showing "Buy" or "Strong Buy". How is this going to be a profitable investment? Surely going short on the EUR/USD is a lot more smarter if you intend on closing...
Maybe you can take this 2 pictures and figure it out yourself.

Tuesday - Spanish Unemployment data pushed it up
Wednesday - It retraced back to where it spiked from Spanish Unemployment and await ADP. Then ADP employment change data push it lower.
Thursday - Not much change in economic events, consolidate awaiting NFP. (Forecast:180K vs Previous:292k > Keeping Eurusd afloat as forecast price in weak US data)
Friday - NFP data beat forecast bringing the Eurusd down.

Hope this help. Good luck.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 33 KB
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #5
  • Last Post: Aug 8, 2016 4:09am Aug 8, 2016 4:09am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Maybe you can take this 2 pictures and figure it out yourself. Tuesday - Spanish Unemployment data pushed it up Wednesday - It retraced back to where it spiked from Spanish Unemployment and await ADP. Then ADP employment change data push it lower. Thursday - Not much change in economic events, consolidate awaiting NFP. (Forecast:180K vs Previous:292k > Keeping Eurusd afloat as forecast price in weak US data) Friday - NFP data beat forecast bringing the Eurusd down. Hope this help. Good luck. {image} {image}
Nice visual explanation. You've showed me how to analyse weekly impact of high news on market. thanks once again.
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