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Forex Made Millionaire Thread for Blog Swing Trades

  • #2,641
  • Aug 4, 2016 10:04pm Aug 4, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting teton
Interesting thread! I don't have the patience for swing trading, most of the trades I do are much lower time frame. The E/U trade I'm in I hope I have entered on the swing high but am looking for a retrace to build a right shoulder, then move lower. Will have to see if this happens! E/U 1h chart {image}
Hey teton, you could very well see a higher entry in EUR/USD. The 4-hour is right on SMA support, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run at the highs, at a minimum:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,642
  • Aug 4, 2016 10:04pm Aug 4, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting FSUtrader
I'm flat all trades.. Probably waiting for the new week
Nice, man. Seems like a good move.
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  • #2,643
  • Aug 4, 2016 10:25pm Aug 4, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey teton, you could very well see a higher entry in EUR/USD. The 4-hour is right on SMA support, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run at the highs, at a minimum: {image}
Nice chart, and very possible to run back to 1.13xx which I think it will eventually , like FSU I'm going to close my trades before NFP
  • #2,644
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:03pm Aug 4, 2016 11:03pm
Hi Geppy,

Do you have, any reasoning for holding the USD/CAD longs still..
  • #2,645
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:34pm Aug 4, 2016 11:34pm
he has explained his position and is holding (as am I) just reread his reasoning and I'll add 1.298 hasn't been touched
  • #2,646
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:37am Aug 5, 2016 7:37am
hey geppy, your usdcad long is doing fantastic.
  • #2,647
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:58am Aug 5, 2016 7:58am
Quoting mamalujo
hey geppy, your usdcad long is doing fantastic.
Yes, as people start to see the fundamentals more clearly it's heading higher. Be back later to talk more about it. Catching a bit more seep for now but planning to hold still.
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  • #2,648
  • Aug 5, 2016 8:10am Aug 5, 2016 8:10am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Yes, as people start to see the fundamentals more clearly it's heading higher. Be back later to talk more about it. Catching a bit more seep for now but planning to hold still.
sad i couldn't catch it as i was already holding GU and AU positions. seeing that long green candle just makes me jealous.
  • #2,649
  • Aug 5, 2016 8:54am Aug 5, 2016 8:54am
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} sad i couldn't catch it as i was already holding GU and AU positions. seeing that long green candle just makes me jealous.
Haha, there will be plenty of time and pips to catch this trade my friend.

I'm going to try and do a deep dive on USD/CAD on the blog later today. But what we saw today only adds to the story.

Canadian private payrolls came in at NEGATIVE 31.2k while US NFP came in at +255k. That's more divergence in economic environments. More reason that the US will, at a minimum, keep rates on hold and potentially hike while Canada is more likely to cut.

Most traders here on FF don't want to be bothered with these facts though. They don't understand or enjoy fundamentals, and it's really to their detriment.
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  • #2,650
  • Aug 5, 2016 9:10am Aug 5, 2016 9:10am
The 1HR 100 SMA seems to have held price held price on the AUDUSD, therefore holding my longs despite the big jobs number. Thoughts, geppy?
  • #2,651
  • Aug 5, 2016 9:14am Aug 5, 2016 9:14am
Quoting pipmaster77
The 1HR 100 SMA seems to have held price held price on the AUDUSD, therefore holding my longs despite the big jobs number. Thoughts, geppy?
Sure. I have some friends that are longing Aussie from the 0.7600 level, but I don't agree yet. They've been citing the pair's recent resilience, especially in the face of the RBA rate cut.

But here's the real deal breaker for me:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We're in a big consolidation range and we still have yet to break out. If my current USD/CAD trade has taught you only one thing it's that we need to stay patient with these sorts of trades especially.

Aussie could break higher, but it could also come down another 100-200 pips and still be stuck in the range. I prefer waiting on the sidelines until that range is broken one way or another.
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  • #2,652
  • Aug 5, 2016 9:30am Aug 5, 2016 9:30am
If you dive deeper into the report, the underemployment rate rose and the number of folks leaving the labor force rose to a 5 month high. These are the figures they try to "hide" to make everything look all great.
  • #2,653
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:05am Aug 5, 2016 10:05am
Quoting pipmaster77
If you dive deeper into the report, the underemployment rate rose and the number of folks leaving the labor force rose to a 5 month high. These are the figures they try to "hide" to make everything look all great.
I'm not saying the US is completely healthy from an economic viewpoint. It's not.

But that's not the trade here.

The Canadian economy is worse off than the US economy. That's fact, and largely the basis for the USD/CAD long I'm in.
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  • #2,654
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:13am Aug 5, 2016 10:13am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm not saying the US is completely healthy from an economic viewpoint. It's not. But that's not the trade here. The Canadian economy is worse off than the US economy. That's fact, and largely the basis for the USD/CAD long I'm in.
Yes, completely agree, US healthier than Canada. My comment was simply my own justification for holding AUD longs. I also trade alot of the cross currencies, so while USDCAD may be going up, I may be shorting EURCAD or GBPCAD.
  • #2,655
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:17am Aug 5, 2016 10:17am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Yes, completely agree, US healthier than Canada. My comment was simply my own justification for holding AUD longs. I also trade alot of the cross currencies, so while USDCAD may be going up, I may be shorting EURCAD or GBPCAD.
Ah, gotcha. Tricky part about this thread is you really need to state which pair you're talking about, otherwise it can get confusing fast!

In regards to Aussie fundamentals... I'd say there's a reason the RBA cut rates this week. I'll admit, I'm not as up on the Aussie economy as I am on most others, but it can't be great if you're cutting rates.
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  • #2,656
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:17am Aug 5, 2016 10:17am
Possible retest of yellow area for a long next week
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  • #2,657
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:17am Aug 5, 2016 10:17am
Quoting fxtrader18
Possible retest of yellow area for a long next week {image}
Interesting, not a pair I trade but looks like a nice setup.
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  • #2,658
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:25am Aug 5, 2016 10:25am
Couple of potential outcomes for UJ for a big pay off. Drawing a trend line from the 2 upper highs gives a possible retracement back to the 105 area..... maybe..... Or continuation to the downside if we don't break the ascending trend line
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  • #2,659
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:57am Aug 5, 2016 10:57am
Quoting fxtrader18
Couple of potential outcomes for UJ for a big pay off. Drawing a trend line from the 2 upper highs gives a possible retracement back to the 105 area..... maybe..... Or continuation to the downside if we don't break the ascending trend line {image}
Nice, man. I'm watching USD/JPY for a short setup too. But like you, wouldn't be surprised to see more upside. Definitely not getting into a trade for that pair today, but hope to see something develop next week.
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  • #2,660
  • Aug 5, 2016 11:18am Aug 5, 2016 11:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No more than that for now, but implications are interesting (to say the least) for USD/CAD.
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