RelaxRay Journal

almost became a slaughtered pig today

uj

hop on the jpy when i saw yen getting sold through crosses mid asian, before boj stimulus noise hog the wire.. and then became a pig

uc

missed the initial target, did not get any more, unsettled i guess? or tired? anyway, mind was not as quick or nimble.. or a greedy pig

felt like i was scrapping the barrel, or trying to juice rocks.



did not trade since and was relaxing nd reading thread

prices too choppy and very compressed and jerky.
i would believe they are loss as well.

FOMC is soon

nothing much to update today, rather messy. letting dust settle

rgds

what we have so far
dollar been soft
yen been bought

london in session, trying to get rythm for dance and if it continues

oh sorry, forgot to add
gold bought, up almost 20$ odd
dxy down

ah heck, i'll do my daily report..
thought of keeping it light today

280716 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
dollar sold



Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - < $97
Index overnight happenings: slowing



Commodities
Gold - bought
Oil - <45 $
Copper - rest -> trying LL?
Iron Ore: finding base 50-60?


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.762 - 0.73 (interesting)
CAD 2-y yield 0.595 - 0.578
Gilt 2-y yield 0.175 - 0.133 [ a rate cut very much on the cards ] ------ first higher attempt sighted, still way below prebrexit
JGB 2-y yield -0.344 (insane)
Aus 2-y yield 1.598 - 1.545
NZD 2-y yield 1.92 - 1.865
sp500 vix 13.05 - 12.43

Overnight News
fomc


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today



Thoughts​

fri
BOJ mps
jpy core cpi
CAD gdp
usd employ cost
usd uom infla

220716
all except fed showing positive yields, slowly shifting to usd buy fundamentally for the quarter as i get more data

reading thread

260716
jpy getting bought, selling the fact?
market very edgy in the morning
liquidity feels low
bank holiday yesterday, euro open to have movements?
usdjpy one to watch

270716
BOJ surprise today
ABE to announce package, or so it seems
Yields rotating higher, signs of some sunny days? or bluff before plunging lower?
FOMC day
All eyes BOJ-MOF-ABE

280716
dollar soft
yen chf gold bought
market prepping for boj tomorrow?
or calling fomc a bluff
personally felt this was the first positive statement of year, and one that highlights that near term risk have been diminished
which in my view would be prepping for a hike
still waiting for more dust to settle or more price equilibrium before moving anything, had a silly uj scout sent yesterday now bathing in blood


Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

yen got dumped samne with gold
chf still odd
usd is up

oil hanging by thread

whole day been watching odd prices
now time its time to move

uj in green and out



ok yen still looking soft in fact, very fishy.
whats going on?? some guy moving in thin mkt?

will check back tomorrow


Oh ! its cause of MOF draft statement
Sign of whats to come from JPY?

yen got bid, in wellington.
no reason sighted
anyones guess

mad house

if anything, usd still looking soft, just like in azn ytd.
sentiment echo ed along w gold n dxy

290716 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
dollar sold - messy



Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - < $97
Index overnight happenings: slowing



Commodities
Gold - bought
Oil - <45 $
Copper - rest -> trying LL? - ll
Iron Ore: +3.5% to $US60.70 tonne finding base 50-60?


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.73 - 0.703 (interesting)
CAD 2-y yield 0.578 - 0.586
Gilt 2-y yield 0.133 - 0.131 [ a rate cut very much on the cards ] ------ first higher attempt sighted, still way below prebrexit
JGB 2-y yield -0.344 -0.330(insane)
Aus 2-y yield 1.545 - 1.508
NZD 2-y yield 1.865 - 1.845
sp500 vix 13.05 - 12.43 - 12.72

Overnight News



Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
fri
BOJ mps
jpy core cpi
CAD gdp
usd employ cost
usd uom infla


Thoughts​

220716
all except fed showing positive yields, slowly shifting to usd buy fundamentally for the quarter as i get more data

reading thread

260716
jpy getting bought, selling the fact?
market very edgy in the morning
liquidity feels low
bank holiday yesterday, euro open to have movements?
usdjpy one to watch

270716
BOJ surprise today
ABE to announce package, or so it seems
Yields rotating higher, signs of some sunny days? or bluff before plunging lower?
FOMC day
All eyes BOJ-MOF-ABE

280716
dollar soft
yen chf gold bought
market prepping for boj tomorrow?
or calling fomc a bluff
personally felt this was the first positive statement of year, and one that highlights that near term risk have been diminished
which in my view would be prepping for a hike
still waiting for more dust to settle or more price equilibrium before moving anything, had a silly uj scout sent yesterday now bathing in blood

290716
late day yesterday
but fine day
big day today
using too many "day"
on this day
but still a fine day
as every day

oops.
ANyway, yen acting today
her stage
been fuzzy since wellington, in fact on open yen got bid
no know why
oh crap here she goes
a bazooka of buy jpy
better stop typing
someone calling boj bluff?
oh yea last night, MOF have had a draft

over and out



Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

usd looking very soft
dance turn on bear

am away for most of august

cheers all
good fortune, great dancing



PS
felt that most miss this on boj today
3. The Government is undertaking fiscal and structural policy initiatives, including a large-scale "stimulus package," which is currently being compiled. The Bank will pursue "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with a Negative Interest Rate" including measures decided today and provide highly accommodative financial conditions. The Bank believes that these monetary policy measures and the Government's initiatives will produce synergy effects on the economy.

IMO this was what drove the sell yen before, and although todays BOj action was weak, and below expectation, it can change quickly when ABE unveils that.

dollar so far been smash by the gdp
gold enjoying
oil taking relief too

Just thought I would let you know - as have read more - Reading Price Charts..... is a great book - really really good - and in line with FTI stuff - think this is best book I have read now. Covers evolving patterns too a bit.

Just wanted to let you know - it does not conflict with what we do and is great on the traps that I have been seeing.

I know you are not trading but wanted to let you know.
Alex

Hey Alex

Much thanks and duly noted.
Will check it out when I finish my current book.
Thanks

Rgds

150816 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.
Fight a good fight!


Currencies
Overnight happenings:




Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - messy, <96
Index overnight happenings: slowing



Commodities
Gold - LH
Oil - ~45 $
Copper - rest -> trying LL? - ll
Iron Ore: tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.706
CAD 2-y yield 0.526
Gilt 2-y yield 0.178 [rate cut !]
JGB 2-y yield -0.195 [trying to balance?]
Aus 2-y yield 1.452 [still edging lower?]
NZD 2-y yield 1.75 [on cards]



Overnight News



Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today



Thoughts​

mon
jpy prelim gdp
tue
aud monetary minutes
gbp cpi + core
eur german zew
cad manuf sales
usd cpi + core
nzd gdt
wed
nzd employ
gbp claimant
gbp unemploy rate
usd crude invent
early thu, fomc
thu
fomc
aud employ
usd philly
usd claims
fri
cad cpi + core
cad retail

150816
1st trading day of august, to tune and watch before play



Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

No probs - just remember it is always evolving pictures & take what is useful from what you read and dump what is not.

Alex

160816 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.
Fight a good fight!


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
usd messy - weak



Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - messy, <96, coiling
Index overnight happenings: slowing, but hh



Commodities
Gold - LH, narrowing
Oil - ~45 $ , about 50% retracement of prev leg down
Copper - rest/conjestion
Iron Ore: -0.3% to $US60.22/tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.706 - 0.726
CAD 2-y yield 0.526 - 0.549 [holding steady]
Gilt 2-y yield 0.178 - 0.146
JGB 2-y yield -0.195 -0.183 [trying to balance?]
Aus 2-y yield 1.452 - 1.411 [still edging lower?]
NZD 2-y yield 1.75 - 1.775 [on cards]



Overnight News



Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
tue
aud monetary minutes
gbp cpi + core
eur german zew
cad manuf sales
usd cpi + core
nzd gdt


Thoughts​

wed
nzd employ
gbp claimant
gbp unemploy rate
usd crude invent
early thu, fomc
thu
fomc
aud employ
usd philly
usd claims
fri
cad cpi + core
cad retail

150816
1st trading day of august, to tune and watch before play

160816
very dry yesterday
was thinking to myself, remember reading boj is in jp225, and they just expanded their program, shouldnt this make it go higher and 'inflate/create another bubble' yet again? either way, when they buy, it be logical to see a reflection in bid there, but, its not reflected much in the jpy.
UJ looking in a make or break zone, around price time period as well.
same with gu, make or break, net shorts on cftc at crazy level, market very lopsided, giving increase probability for sharp short cover
oil at 50% go retrace, usdcad been bearish for 5 straight days, nevertheless, it made lower low. so this ones a pickle.
eurgbp also > .86 eyeing 2013 highs, should gu cover, this will move too, as i believe the weakness in gbp gave a bump to breaking the .86 resistance.
eu as of now, trading inside week, sellers showing at 1.12, but hl sighted, very much in no mans land

i keep thinking, what is jpy plan, whats her motive. it cant be just risk off sentiment to drive it, at moment, it looks like jpy been doing lots of M&A and brexit given them a very good bargain.



Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

uj

just following with this one, felt that there was usd buying across the board, and decide to jump onto the "cheapest" one.
possibly out too soon with her, but i havent been trading and still havent really gotten fully on board with the market flows

eu

was first trade on mon, only manage to square today morning. at be

gu

elaborated on chart



usdcad making attempts
personally find it easier for cad & oil to sell, then buy. however BOC and bond movements holding firm.

eurgbp breached .87 again today, but finding sellers quickly. possibly an early lower high? but region around there, bound to have option stops.. so who knows.

oh, usd got dumped in Asian today.

170816 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.
Fight a good fight!


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
usd weak
gbp strong



Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - messy, <95, coiling
Index overnight happenings: slowing



Commodities
Gold - LH, narrowing
Oil - ~45 $ , about 50% retracement of prev leg down
Copper - rest/conjestion
Iron Ore: +3% $US62.03 tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.726 - 0.75 [futures pricing too]
CAD 2-y yield 0.549 - 0.567 [holding steady]
Gilt 2-y yield 0.146 - 0.144
JGB 2-y yield -0.183 -0.191 [trying to balance?]
Aus 2-y yield 1.411 - 1.447 [still edging lower?]
NZD 2-y yield 1.775 - 1.79 [on cards] - maybe?



Overnight News
gdt +ve
usd earnings +ve


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
wed
nzd employ
gbp claimant
gbp unemploy rate
usd crude invent
early thu, fomc


Thoughts​

thu
fomc
aud employ
usd philly
usd claims
fri
cad cpi + core
cad retail

150816
1st trading day of august, to tune and watch before play

160816
very dry yesterday
was thinking to myself, remember reading boj is in jp225, and they just expanded their program, shouldnt this make it go higher and 'inflate/create another bubble' yet again? either way, when they buy, it be logical to see a reflection in bid there, but, its not reflected much in the jpy.
UJ looking in a make or break zone, around price time period as well.
same with gu, make or break, net shorts on cftc at crazy level, market very lopsided, giving increase probability for sharp short cover
oil at 50% go retrace, usdcad been bearish for 5 straight days, nevertheless, it made lower low. so this ones a pickle.
eurgbp also > .86 eyeing 2013 highs, should gu cover, this will move too, as i believe the weakness in gbp gave a bump to breaking the .86 resistance.
eu as of now, trading inside week, sellers showing at 1.12, but hl sighted, very much in no mans land

i keep thinking, what is jpy plan, whats her motive. it cant be just risk off sentiment to drive it, at moment, it looks like jpy been doing lots of M&A and brexit given them a very good bargain.

170816
usd earnings increase, positive
dollar showing some bottom feeding
fomc day



Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

uc


nu



picking scraps today... day before FOMC day..

180816 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
Relax and Dance reminder.
Fight a good fight!


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
usd weak




Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - broken, <95
Index overnight happenings: slowing



Commodities
Gold - narrowing
Oil - >45
Copper - rest/conjestion
Iron Ore:


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.75 - 0.718
CAD 2-y yield 0.567 - 0.572 [holding steady]
Gilt 2-y yield 0.144 - 0.160
JGB 2-y yield -0.191 -0.193 [trying to balance?]
Aus 2-y yield 1.447 - 1.434 [still edging lower?]
NZD 2-y yield 1.79 - 1.765 [on cards] - maybe?



Overnight News
fomc and the cow


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
thu
fomc
aud employ
usd philly
usd claims


Thoughts​

fri
cad cpi + core
cad retail

150816
1st trading day of august, to tune and watch before play

160816
very dry yesterday
was thinking to myself, remember reading boj is in jp225, and they just expanded their program, shouldnt this make it go higher and 'inflate/create another bubble' yet again? either way, when they buy, it be logical to see a reflection in bid there, but, its not reflected much in the jpy.
UJ looking in a make or break zone, around price time period as well.
same with gu, make or break, net shorts on cftc at crazy level, market very lopsided, giving increase probability for sharp short cover
oil at 50% go retrace, usdcad been bearish for 5 straight days, nevertheless, it made lower low. so this ones a pickle.
eurgbp also > .86 eyeing 2013 highs, should gu cover, this will move too, as i believe the weakness in gbp gave a bump to breaking the .86 resistance.
eu as of now, trading inside week, sellers showing at 1.12, but hl sighted, very much in no mans land

i keep thinking, what is jpy plan, whats her motive. it cant be just risk off sentiment to drive it, at moment, it looks like jpy been doing lots of M&A and brexit given them a very good bargain.

170816
usd earnings increase, positive
dollar showing some bottom feeding
fomc day

180816
uj <100
disorientating



Reminder to self: sit easy, relax, and dance. Tango. Trust yourself, send scouts, wait feed back. Dont rush. If theres nothing, read a book.

feeling abit out of money today

or this week

finding self to be taking opposite of overnight abit more then healthy


well, need to slow things down and balance

gu


on going
uc
nu

Hi Ray

way to go.... those last few trades have been taken much better my friend .... .

regards

Phil.