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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,201
  • Aug 4, 2016 7:34am Aug 4, 2016 7:34am
All over after a rather fully charged conference. Inline on rates, inflation and Monetary measures. Very dovish on the economic outlook and Brexit impact.

Eyes on the open with equities in full control after another massive free cake for the bastards to ride...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,202
  • Aug 4, 2016 7:42am Aug 4, 2016 7:42am
-> Seven and final key update from the BOE:

Changing mid term outlook in UK equities from Sell to Strong Sell leaving the short term the same riding the fumes of another CB bazooka....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,203
  • Aug 4, 2016 7:58am Aug 4, 2016 7:58am
...and here we go Gilts making fresh all time lows !!! ....and you know what usually happens when bonds play ball with the rest of the market...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,204
  • Aug 4, 2016 8:41am Aug 4, 2016 8:41am
Quoting sisse
....
Inline / nothing new BOE for a direct play 1.331x [check]-> 1.293x with momentum 1.322x[check].... Finally a BOE bazooka for a direct and sharp leg 1.331x [check]-> 1.246x with a stopover on the brexit lows [check]
Simple ride and right on time for the open, brexit lows tested clearing first target in GU 1.312x making a lot easier for managing remaining... Well done all shorts from the 1.33xx handle ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,205
  • Edited 8:57am Aug 4, 2016 8:47am | Edited 8:57am
how about eurgbp? what do you think is the rally over? .849 is still "holding"


update: it seems not
  • #142,206
  • Aug 4, 2016 9:10am Aug 4, 2016 9:10am
What about Eur/usd ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,207
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:45am Aug 4, 2016 11:45am
Quoting sisse
.... OIL triggering40.3x
...and I will take that in OIL clearing first target on the test 41.8x. Well done all that took it from the lows of the $40 handle.

That was it with Europe going home with simple continuations across the board after BOE. Expecting US markets to softly follow through until the close when Dollar will take the driver seat for tomorrow NFP...

@KGP read update post above ...."Fourth update from the BOE: Changing short term outlook in EG..." EG is the classical two ugly sisters tale. Right now Sterling is the uglier for the rest of the year but they always alternate between each other in the booms and busts. So its a rally based on a race to the bottom not a rally on strength ....

@primejarvis what about it? ... what were you expecting in euro?

We have one of the most if not the most important report of the year in the FX board !!!! that will have huge consequences beyond currencies and is causing major shocks in Bonds, Currencies and Equities ....and you are looking at one of the instrument that has almost nothing to say or do for the news flows !!!!.

My 2 cents, you seem to be looking at the wrong instrument, at the wrong time with the wrong reports, and more importantly at an awful/irrelevant timing for trading it expecting some major moves ... Dollar will enter in play from the closing session today, there you will have something to see for tomorrow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,208
  • Aug 4, 2016 9:27pm Aug 4, 2016 9:27pm
Edited: Sorry for the question I got your answer in previous post alr
  • #142,209
  • Aug 5, 2016 4:16am Aug 5, 2016 4:16am
...and that was it for the european open. Soft numbers and thin session expected until NFP. Not much to see until then.

---- ---- o ---- -----


It's getting harder and harder to manage this iterations on the thread. In the last few weeks a few people has offered to help with the information and managing the tables and info/tips etc because they are interested in the concepts behind and have it clean to learn or explore some tricks. However I decided to do something very very different.

--> Instead of keep doing the same thing, I decided to do a very unique live 'trading experiment' for the next few weeks that I am not sure if it ever has been tried. Before going into details, I want to complete the 20 iterations planned to cover all the points we started discussing a few months ago and select/invite the top 20 traders at the end to participate in this experiment....

I will give more details later but for now a quick update on the iterations as we get ready for NFP.


Quoting sisse
... Iteration 13 ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.111x++++ "Panic" (Elapsed Time 12 hours 2 days) -> LMT BUY 1.102x -> TP1 => 1.122x | TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* Fadhl

Iteration 13

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++

"Panic"

(Elapsed Time 12 hours 27 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.102x [check] -> TP1 => 1.122x [check]| TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl


Just one and only one comment here @Fadhl. Sure a winner but does it really make sense fading against a major trend?

I mean that was the point of these previous iterations about mapping a trade and outlooks. Sure you got a first target (but most of the time you wont as per your stop and risk) but do you think waiting for 27 days for a trade against make sense?.

In any case, as always ===opening iteration 13a only for Fadhl ====: How would you manage the position:

a. Stay put for final target, 'the heat has passed',
b. Clear all (1.112x), 'choppy or not choppy got what I need and now the map is different'
c. 'No way, the party is just going to get started'. I am adding longs (1.112x) for a double TP2.


Quoting sisse
.===Table Closed=== Iteration 16 ++++Currently EURO is trading 1.121x++++ (Elapsed Time 2 days 12 hours) "arghh revenge, calm or I am done with it"
On iteration 16, well done Vorex, eborn, PAStalker for taking the low volatile and chop play for the BOE.

Iteration 16

++++Currently EURO is trading 1.114x++++

(Elapsed Time 4 days 12 hours)

"arghh revenge, calm or I am done with it"


-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP2 => 1.155x TP1 => 1.138x | STP => 1.1080 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

manosk

Ghandi


-> No touch 1.125x / 1.105x (till BOE) [check] -> TP2 => No touch 1.1350 | 1.095x [check](till NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Vorex

eborn

PAStalker


-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.078x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

primejarvis

Fadhl

Fisher755

IMARICH1

Pharm0r

Replicant

pmmebids

glassblower

Earleone


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,210
  • Aug 5, 2016 5:31am Aug 5, 2016 5:31am
"Clear all" is my choice to be coherent with "Iteration 16".
This said, I agree I went against a solid trend, but my rationale was and still that Central Banks intervened after Brexit to stop the collapse of UK and to some extend EU and they did and faded the panic. Lasting 27 days for skinny reward is a bad decision. My choice should had been "Out of Market".
Thanks so much Sisse for all what are you doing for this community!
  • #142,211
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:29am Aug 5, 2016 7:29am
here we go for NFP.....no summary or iteration today as its too late.

Not expecting much from NFP. +/- Inline with expectations expected for uneventful report. A overshoot unlocks the continuation floodgates in all Dollar pairs, commodities and Equities.

We are coming from major GDP flop last Quarter so a flop will trigger the start of the end of the happy day for Equities with fumes on CBs artificial pumping holding for the rest of the summer, short-circuiting Dollar and sending Euro, Cable and Yen to test highs/lows.

1.116x Euro is the rain maker as discussed. 1.129x to the top 1.098x to the floor.

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,212
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:32am Aug 5, 2016 7:32am
...and boom goes the dynamite again ...overshoots, good revisions and solid in the minor numbers. Unemployment inline.

Equities to blow the highs and ride a double play (CB and good numbers) to close August....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,213
  • Aug 5, 2016 7:39am Aug 5, 2016 7:39am
--> Only update from NFP.

Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to neutral.

Here manually clearing all GOLD positions @1345.xx

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,214
  • Aug 5, 2016 8:02am Aug 5, 2016 8:02am
Hi sisse,
Iteration 15a, would also want to clear gold positions based on

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...Same for NFP. Quickly same thing: NFP a huge overshoot. Markets are expecting +/- inline/slightly softer numbers. A overshoot will caught markets on the wrong side creating a short-circuit and game changer. Gold means shortcuit via monetary policy (hikes sept) putting lots of pressure to the down side ... e
and change in outlook, think neutral will more likely go to 1330 than 1360
  • #142,215
  • Aug 5, 2016 9:01am Aug 5, 2016 9:01am
Quoting PAStalker
Hi sisse, Iteration 15a, would also want to clear gold positions based on {quote} and change in outlook, think neutral will more likely go to 1330 than 1360
This looks like good thinking to me as well. Not sure how it works with the iteration but I would clear too if I could.
  • #142,216
  • Edited 11:39am Aug 5, 2016 11:27am | Edited 11:39am
..europe going home with Equities flying high as expected after the huge NFP. Right only time testing ATH one more time and ready to take it. Here clearing soft and only position on the ATH test in S&P as sadly don't have enough positions to ride it further.

Day far from over, Extension 2200.xx on sight today with a quick breach on the naked and feeble highs in play. Only magic lines at these levels and a break above unlocks the 'moon' TAwsise (+/-2340.xx) for the rest of the summer.

On the FX board Sterling and Euro, hanging on air but without Europe support there will find very little appetite from the US to help them. More importantly and as widely expected 102.xx in key roll in play today in Yen (UJ).

All on track expecting a one more attempt today to blow the highs in Equities and carry the rest of the board so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,217
  • Aug 5, 2016 11:29am Aug 5, 2016 11:29am
Quoting sisse
...and boom goes the dynamite again ...overshoots, good revisions and solid in the minor numbers. Unemployment inline. Equities to blow the highs and ride a double play (CB and good numbers) to close August.... sisse
UK100 is really stretching its limit right now. Would be a no brainer around 6870 or max 7100. We are heading for a huge storm cause bastards are overdoing it
  • #142,218
  • Aug 5, 2016 11:36am Aug 5, 2016 11:36am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} UK100 is really stretching its limit right now. Would be a no brainer around 6870 or max 7100. We are heading for a huge storm cause bastards are overdoing it
Yeap, simple ride in FTSE from the BOE ...no brainer really. I hope you got some ....

Quoting sisse
...

.....BOE will trigger Equities to keep riding the pig on free money 659x ->687x for the summer with momentum with US tomorrow not flopping in NFP.

A major bazooka will trigger a one way WTF leg in Sterling, sweeping the lows to the test the Brexit lows cracking the floor and leaving Sterling 'floor-less' for September while on Equities .... for a play 659x->687x->6000.
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,219
  • Edited Aug 6, 2016 3:24am Aug 5, 2016 12:50pm | Edited Aug 6, 2016 3:24am
Quoting sisse
...will trigger Equities to keep riding the pig on free money 659x ->687x for the summer..
On the weekly chart I can see the 687x peak (followed by the 71xx ATH).

Other than the BoE 'free money bazooka', is there any other driver(s) pushing the FTSE up?

I am curious about the dynamics of how this rally might exhaust itself (and, as you say - 'start coughing at the highs').

As such, I am wondering if the riders of the pig will simply keep riding it purely dependent on whether the BoE:
- continues to feed the pig (more free money = equities higher?)
- cuts back on the feed (reduce the free money = equities loose steam and range?)
- stops the feeding the pig completely (no more free money = equities reverse direction and trend?)

Is the 'feed' analogy the main driver (albeit oversimplified) or are there stronger factors to consider, e.g. company earnings?
  • #142,220
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:18am Aug 8, 2016 6:18am
A decent and light european morning but markets look rather tired after the last few weeks of CB hyperactive mode and look ready to enter in full holiday mode for the next couple of weeks.

--> We are aligning for chop zone across the board on thin and last summery days. Very light calendar on the FA front too making the whole board a choppy affair for trading.

--> More importantly in the FX board, Dollar in need of a short term pullback after BOE/BOJ/RBA combo before charging for September onwards for the FED / UK/EU circus for the rest of the year. DX failure to clear 96.7x in the next few sessions will kill Dollar side for the next weeks in choppiness.

Here the relatively bullish last W close in the Euro is adding for a sluggish environment in the next few days. Tracking 1.107x for NY today, failure to take it will make me clear all short term positions in Euro from last week and more importantly for strictly timing and TA reasons will make me change short term outlook from sell to choppy neutral until we pass the doldrums of the summer.....

...until then, same levels, same trades, same all across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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