The Really Useless Thread

...and that was it for a jittery thin European opening. All eyes on the BOE for today with all FX markets entering in no man land till then. Lots in play today from the FA side. Last meeting BOE kicked the can but today action seem unavoidable.

--> On the fundamental side:

Everything on the table for today with 3 main things to track: Rates, Monetary Policy expansion and Economic outlook.

1. On the rate front: Markets expecting a rate cut 0.25, anything larger will be a slight extra and wont affect the general outcome. However a flop (no cuts) will short-circuit a heavily aligned market and send shockwaves both in Sterling and UK Equities.

1. On the monetary policy front: from a fresh bond-buying programs to corporate bond purchases and everything in between on the table. This one is the trickiest part for today and it will trigger the major moves outside of the interest rate headlines for the mass media and general public. Expectations are divided and not clear here and each policy will have different implications.

    

   1. Marketwise a flop (nothing announced in this front) will leave us in the status quo (nothing new) leaving the door wide open for more action in BOE next meeting (high odds on this option),
   2. while any additional measure will trigger a sharp rally reaction in Equities and sell-off in Sterling. The speed and force will depend on the details and scope of the new measures announced.

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2. On the Economic outlook front: Markets expecting a rather calm BOE trying to turn down the heat on Brexit jitters and focus on waiting for further data to avoid panic especially in thin summery markets. Not much expected on the macro front except for caution for the months ahead, However expecting warnings on the inflation front as forecast expect to overshoot for the rest of the year given the massive devaluation Sterling.

    

   1. Marketwise. A cautious BOE on the macro front with highlights of potentials spike in inflation for nothing new but it will start creating a cluster fuck in Sterling in the mid term as soon as inflation start ticking up.
   2. A panicky, aggressive BOE (Not expected at all) triggering a bazooka via the economic uncertainty and initial impact of Brexit will send massive shockwaves across the board triggering risk and panic across Europe. Equities short-circuiting and any policy effect will be very short-lived as economic fundamentals will take markets by storm from Sept onwards while Sterling will trigger a double whammy major capitulation move via QE/rates and poor outlook.

​--> On the technical side:

Things a bit easier and clear 3 main options.

1. An inline/nothing new with expectations BOE will trigger Equities to keep riding the pig on free money 659x ->687x for the summer with momentum with US tomorrow not flopping in NFP. While in Sterling 1.322x is the only level and rain maker in play short term, everything else in the range is noise. Mid term ext and long term swings target in play only at these levels so it will stay in choppy limbo short term until the final push to unlock capitulation leg 1.322x -> to the lows of the 1.2x handle (+/-1.22xx).
2. A major bazooka will trigger a one way WTF leg in Sterling, sweeping the lows to the test the Brexit lows cracking the floor and leaving Sterling 'floor-less' for September while on Equities it will trigger a zigzag play to set the high of the Quarter and this year for a play 659x->687x->6000.x until further data.
3. A flop for profit taking in equities for the summer setting the high of the Quarter in a direct move 670x -> 620.x and in Sterling it will trigger a short squeeze 1.328x -> 1.35xx unlocking but not triggering the extension to the 1.39xx.

--> For the Actual flows (GU only)

All micro levels raised as usual in reports like that.

Inline / nothing new BOE for a direct play 1.331x-> 1.293x with momentum 1.322x. A disappointing BOE unlock a short squeeze taking the current highs to 1.350x and extension 1.390x with a BOE not even cutting rates. Finally a BOE bazooka for a direct and sharp leg 1.331x-> 1.246x with a stopover on the brexit lows.

GL all trading, planning to trade or just tracking a key policy decision in the FX board and beyond.

sisse

Press on lock down in a few for the BOE (watch out for leaks ??...je je wont be a surprise to be honest) and all ready to go ... Sterling train is even more loaded than in the Brexit play as this time there is nobody interested in playing the other side for the next couple of Quarters. Whoever (large speculators i mean) plays a squeeze on a flop will make a killer for the summer...

On collateral markets, Euro on the very backseat for the news with nothing new in play. YEN looks ready and cook for the next leg, GOLD and more interesting OIL on choose your poison time until NFP for those not already loaded.

Plenty of options across the board for every taste. This week will probably set the tone for the rest of August leaving the in between for soft hands and minions getting spank in and out on thin and intraday volatile markets in the doldrums of the summer....

Let see how it goes....


sisse

Back from a mini vacation...BoE you better not disappoint this time . thx for the heads up Sisse !

so lets roll guys ... gl to all

rate cut from .50 to .25 ...

stopped & freezed my mt4 without any volatitlity

Cut as expected, more QE, Corporate Bond program activate ... outlook and comments coming

sisse

Watchout major overshoot in inflation target confirmed as also was expected ...creating a cluster fuck in the mid term in sTerling....

sisse

A full house is my initial reading from the BOE. They are pretty much throwing the kitchen sink on it to avoid Brexit jitters cool down for the rest of the year.

Game changer in my view but not necessarily from the policy announcements themselves (most were pretty much expected one way or the other till the end of the year) but because BOE is officially NAKED now and is the first one to use all ammo alternatives but in a very fck up environment on any failure as inflation will shoot up making monetary policy completely useless to fight both sides of the equation at the same time.

Expecting a shift from monetary measures to Fiscal measures (first time in a major economy since the 2008 collapse) in the upcoming weeks as the main conclusion. Things are looking rather very dark in the economy for the rest of the year in the UK for such an aggressive BOE move and therefore:

-> First update from the BOE:

Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from aggressive Sell to Sell for the foreseeable future.

--> Second update from the BOE comes from my signature on rates:

RATE cuts [check] there is still room for negative rates if things go really bad but mainly rates are off the table for the rest of the year.


sisse

can some1 please explain what is going on with eu

what downside extension lvls do you track for reference ?

edit: short term only

Thank you very much "Professor Sisse". You really nailed it. We followed .

We are witnessing the 'whatever it takes' moment in the UK. Moves are far from over ...Carney on the wires for the movers and shakers...

sisse

Confirming awful outlook forecasted before Brexit, Economic slowdown expected, inflation up....uncertainty triggered and confirmed for the rest of the year. Scary outlook on the real estate sector...major economic sector relocations expected... unemployment expected to shoot up by large margin ...

inflation is out of the equation for the BOE !!! watch out for Sterling losing the 1.30xx for the foreseeable future...

...and that was pretty much it. A very bleak outlook in a super dovish BOE...only a final unexpected comment in the next few minutes, we got pretty much all from today Game Changer Report.

sisse

Changed my tp for GU, gonna let it run into next week- expect IF there's a small bounce it will be sold pretty quickly

Another test of 1.29 handle looks imminent

-> Third update from the BOE:

Changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to neutral.

sisse

Watch-out GOLD for NY as is triggering imminent break up alerts for the NFP combo ....

sisse

it seems there is (or was this is the last time for him being CB governor) a CBanker with rational thinking and....common sense... whatever i read and also whatever heard from him have some logic behind .... and also a clear target....

its not like the others who learned to talk only about "helicopter money", illogically spend QEs and of course.....negative rates

-> Fourth update from the BOE:

Changing short term outlook in EG from soft buy to buy. Eyeballing 0.88xx as main target before unlocking parity for the mid and long term.

sisse

-> Fifth update from the BOE: A bit out of the scope for this thread but important as is the contagion link to Europe and global economy:

Changing mid term outlook in banking/financial stocks in the UK and Europe from sell to aggressive Sell until further data.

sisse

-> Sixth update from the BOE:

Changing short term outlook in GJ from neutral to soft sell.

sisse