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  • #98,181
  • Aug 2, 2016 7:56am Aug 2, 2016 7:56am
Quoting radical
{quote} ​that's it for cuts, no more down side rate risks.
That's it for cuts? I must be reading this graph wrong then as I thought it implied greater than 50% chance of a further cut in 3 months time. http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_ex...urve_graph.pdf
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #98,182
  • Edited 8:21am Aug 2, 2016 8:09am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting dab
{quote} That's it for cuts? I must be reading this graph wrong then as I thought it implied greater than 50% chance of a further cut in 3 months time. http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_ex...urve_graph.pdf
​I'm in mining recruitment in WA the worst is over 6 months ago... we have been busy all this year. that's an indicator for you.
  • #98,183
  • Aug 2, 2016 8:28am Aug 2, 2016 8:28am
Cuts are definitely not finished, the rate will go to 0.5% at least.
  • #98,184
  • Edited 11:36pm Aug 2, 2016 8:43am | Edited 11:36pm
Sell the rumor, buy the fact.

The statement does not indicate any more cuts are needed and FOMC is on hold for a while so smart money is banking profits. There may even be some long side accumulation at these levels.

I repeat from previous post. That said, cycles indicate that August down month for AUDUSD so buying here a mugs game. Either let it come down for long, or short with tight stop. Some back and forth until we get the seasonal cycle "stay long until Christmas" signal
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #98,185
  • Aug 2, 2016 8:52am Aug 2, 2016 8:52am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Sell the rumor, buy the fact. The statement does not indicate any more cuts are needed and FOMC is on hold for a while so smart money is banking profits. There may even be some long side accumulation at these levels.
Don't forget FED has one more rate hike this year. For now, it might go to 1.78. But not sure.
  • #98,186
  • Aug 2, 2016 8:53am Aug 2, 2016 8:53am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Sell the rumor, buy the fact. The statement does not indicate any more cuts are needed and FOMC is on hold for a while so smart money is banking profits. There may even be some long side accumulation at these levels.
Statement means nothing, it changes like the weather in Hobart. The rate cuts will resume after the next quarter CPI figures that would be negative again. Have you seen today's petrol prices? Well I have. They are f...cking 93 cents, haven't seen that in more than 10 years.
There are more cuts at least to 0,5 in the future.
  • #98,187
  • Aug 2, 2016 8:56am Aug 2, 2016 8:56am
Quoting radical
{quote} ​I'm in mining recruitment in WA the worst is over 6 months ago... we have been busy all this year. that's an indicator for you.
That is not an indicator. The rent and property prices in Perth are an indicator and they are falling and there is no end in sight.
  • #98,188
  • Aug 2, 2016 9:10am Aug 2, 2016 9:10am
Quoting frx_trader
{quote} Don't forget FED has one more rate hike this year. For now, it might go to 1.78. But not sure.
Markets are not priced for rate hike this year. I personally don't think this Yellin led FOMC will go without telling the trade because panic buying of USD. FOMC does not want that.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #98,189
  • Aug 2, 2016 9:17am Aug 2, 2016 9:17am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Markets are not priced for rate hike this year. I personally don't think this Yellin led FOMC will go without telling the trade because panic buying of USD. FOMC does not want that.
Looks like the trade can take rate hike at Feb 1, 2017 but expecting it at March 15, 2017
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #98,190
  • Aug 2, 2016 9:21am Aug 2, 2016 9:21am
This is a speculative rise guys, so be careful with your longs, thanks
  • #98,191
  • Aug 2, 2016 9:31am Aug 2, 2016 9:31am
Uptrend broken, going short. Massive rise in 12 hour, needs some correction I reckon.
  • #98,192
  • Aug 2, 2016 11:27am Aug 2, 2016 11:27am
RBA cuts but AU moves higher? Alright, looks like the squeeze is on. I imagine that they're gonna try and push it to 1.7650 at least. I had a long get trigger at 1.75466 that is now at breakeven, and those July highs seem like they're in play.
  • #98,193
  • Aug 2, 2016 11:40am Aug 2, 2016 11:40am
I will take facts as they are -

1) the yield proposition the Aussie dollar presents is a lot more attractive than that of most other currencies
2) the RBA removed any mention of future rate cuts, which suggests the value of the aud can be seen constant in the immediate horizon
3) price action wise, there was a clear rejection at the 7480 level post-RBA and the price simply rose. The current pullback (from 7640 to 7600) appears shallow

It appears quite clear that the way to go is up. However, the immediate hurdle is today's high at 7640, then 7650 where the price last failed and then 7700 where there were multiple failures between March-may this year. I think those levels will be strongly defended. But until anything changes on the fundamental horizon (eg the fed actually raising rates), or data that suggests a serious decline in Australia's economic situation (note: the "bad" economy has been consistent for awhile already and that hasn't moved the aud down) there's really nothing to support a case for the aud to decline at this point.

Just sharing my two cents worth
  • #98,194
  • Aug 2, 2016 11:57am Aug 2, 2016 11:57am
Quoting ell3
I will take facts as they are - 1) the yield proposition the Aussie dollar presents is a lot more attractive than that of most other currencies 2) the RBA removed any mention of future rate cuts, which suggests the value of the aud can be seen constant in the immediate horizon 3) price action wise, there was a clear rejection at the 7480 level post-RBA and the price simply rose. The current pullback (from 7640 to 7600) appears shallow It appears quite clear that the way to go is up. However, the immediate hurdle is today's high at 7640, then 7650...
Nice wrap up, bro. I like the cut of your jib.
  • #98,195
  • Edited 12:13pm Aug 2, 2016 12:01pm | Edited 12:13pm
Crude oil takes a dive. Hmmm.......
  • #98,196
  • Aug 2, 2016 1:39pm Aug 2, 2016 1:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,197
  • Aug 2, 2016 10:35pm Aug 2, 2016 10:35pm
Short AUD/USD 7610 SL 7652 TP OPEN
  • #98,198
  • Aug 2, 2016 10:39pm Aug 2, 2016 10:39pm
Quoting Vantage FX
Surely the RBA has more credibility than to 'leave it to Lowe so he can stamp his mark'... With interest rate futures pricing in a 75% chance of a cut and the market obviously short, the risk is to the upside. Bigtime. Sneaky AUD/USD level that's been in play today: {image}
Yes, playing from the long side on an interest rate cut may seem crazy on the surface, but when interest rate futures markets are pricing in a 2 in 3 chance that the RBA cuts and the Aussie Dollar has been hammered off its highs in expectation of a cut, expectations were extremely stretched to the one side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 160803_audusd_1hour.png Size: 49 KB
Australian Forex Broker - Try a Vantage FX RAW ECN Account Today.
  • #98,199
  • Aug 2, 2016 11:45pm Aug 2, 2016 11:45pm
Quoting Vantage FX
{quote} Yes, playing from the long side on an interest rate cut may seem crazy on the surface, but when interest rate futures markets are pricing in a 2 in 3 chance that the RBA cuts and the Aussie Dollar has been hammered off its highs in expectation of a cut, expectations were extremely stretched to the one side. {image}
Some cashing in profits for sure as August normally a down month for AUDUSD. Feels like the money is starting to build longs for the year end push so may be a flat August trade (ranging)
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #98,200
  • Aug 3, 2016 2:12am Aug 3, 2016 2:12am
Whatever happens to the prediction that it will dive towards 7300s by so many fortune tellers?
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