My trades by Dave

Thanks for the tip.

I am pure tech trader and my pointing out that neg US news didn't make the dollar fall (yet)

I have this custome made indacater that calculates over all trend direction, and counts 5/3 wave patterns. The purple signals tend to mean nothin in this chart but the white tend to be accurate. Top left is pivot and support resistance calculations.

When waves are hard to determine I look to this. As it cann't give a 1,2 lable to something that don't fit a certian structure.
The rule is that a 5 wave followed by a 3 wave correction, will give way to another 5 waves in the origonal 5 waves direction. And since this is almost a 100% correction of 3 waves down and wave 2 can retrace 100% of wave one, this make it a prime entry spot and high probility of a wave 3 or c up.

If its a wave b down than it can extend past the previous low befor rising. So a break to the down side a little still won't be reason to sell.

Sell at the top of the range and buy at the bottom. I have posted a chart showing the current range. Its now at the bottom. I would need to see a break of this range because I don't know what its gonna do just what I see it doing.

Not saying your wrong, as I type price falls to 1.2860(only 5 pips against me) Its a very small risk to take at 25 pip s/l. And if 1.2754 support is breached again I will pull it early and wait for ewocci signal. But it could go for that top trend line and reward will be 150+ pips.

Dave

edit: one more thing about waves. Even if the trend is down there has been 3 waves down established. There will need to be a 4th wave up correction befor a 5th wave down can happen. So either way we should see a rise from this level.

Dave

1 more thing yardie, not to rip your opinion rather to help you understand market mentality.

picking a breakout is like picking tops and bottoms. Not a good idea. The support here I am not picking rather it was already established on several differant levels of higher time frames. I know theres support so I trade what I know. The higher probility assumption would be support and trend lines will hold untill the market shows us something different.

All opinions are welcome but beware I will return my own thoughts too.

Dave

looks like you might be right yardie,

but i'd do the same as befor if given another chance. Gotta take the good with the bad

exit after bottom broke on the pull back to 1.2764

-1 pip

I'll wait for long signal should it bounce but waching for now

Dave

price is in an expanding flat. widening on both top and bottom. very hard to judge a trade here.

dave

I think it needs to make a clean break of 2750 to set the tone for the continued downtrend.

yea i agree. Seems the price is having a hard time getting past the 1.2745 support and 1.2785 pivot.
I took 8 pips earlier and am up about 10 now. but its pulling back

currently holding short from 1.2770

s/l 1.2785

I will pull it if support holds

Dave

all ma's on 1 hr crossed down. So if it is gonna break support I got no signal sept the break itself. And a break might not be sustained or it might drop like a rock

If it's gonna go up i'll get all kind of signals for entry, 5/8 cross then 5/8 crosses 13, then all 3 cross 21, then ewo and cci will signal.

If theres gonna be a move down it could go into upper 1.2600 range or lower.

remember I said 1.2550/2600 buy the months end.

Dave

Here is a 5 pip scalp I just got on a wedge. I have posted on wedges befor. They almost always go to the widest part. this one was perfect. And since resistance is there I exited

Dave

edit: once you can lable 5 waves in the wedge....a,b,c,d,e it will jump in the direction d would be.

Well the price did dip to 1.2725 range but quickly went right back to were it started at 1.2750/70 range.

The price met with the 55 day ema and bounced. Forming a doji on the daily charts. And cci is nearing the 0 line on daily.

I expect a rise in price on a cci 0 line bounce along with 55 day ema bounce first of next week. But the 8 ema has crossed the 21 sma on daily giving bearish signal on daily so any bounce will probly be small and eventually should break below 1.2700 next week.

21 sma (middle bolli) on daily is at 1.2801 while the 55 day ema is holding support at 1.2722. I expect the price to be stuck between this range for a couple of days befor going on to new lows.

Dave

Here is the daily chart with the possible overall wave count.

We could be at the bottom of a wave C in a wave 2 sideways correction.

This is one of those times that just when you think its going to go down it suddenly goes up and catches every one off guard.

There could still be a rise and dip befor the over all wave goes back up. I cann't really find a valad bear count to this although I will keep trying to find one. Don't wanna get caught by suprise.

Untill 1.2700 is well broken I would be more likely to buy on dips.

Dave

EDIT: since wave b extended past wave 1 top wave C can still goto 1.2550/1.2600. If 1.2700 is broke this is the support level. Then we should see a large up swing.

On the above there is a buy order in. I left it over the weekend with a 10 pip s/l. Now market opened above the close of fri. so I moved s/l to 1.2745.

New daily pivot is 1.2756

entry was 1.2765

Bouncing off pivot test I will PT if it breaks the pivot.


Dave

Price is near buy signal and in a wedge. I ignored the wipsaw from fri.

5/8 ema has crossed 21 sma on 1 hr chart.

A move above 55hr ema should give rise to a buy signal from ewo and cci.

Dave

I think its only a BUY if the EURUSD can manage to break the 1.2790/2800 level.

yea but i'm gonna make the 20-30 pips between here and there. And will already be in if it breaks. And exit with profits if it reverses.

Dave

ewo/cci has signaled long price is not testing weekly pivot(blue line)(1.2798)

and the break happened on cross of 55 ema holding current long from 1.2765 s/l b/e

Dave

heres the wave chart again

Dave

current price 1.2812

moving s/l up to 1.2795 keeping it under 8 ema and weekly pivot for now.

Dave

trailed s/l hit



+30 pips.



ewo and ci is nearing 0 line again. Could get a sell signal or 0 line bounce.

The move up wasn't strong and weekly pivot break didn't hold.

Dave

working on a re-entry method for already signaled trends.

Had an inverted cliffhanger but waited for the 21 sma(middle bolli) break to the buy side for entry. Allways on a 1 hr chart.

long 1.2797

s/l 1.2780

1st target 1.2817 resistance. And top of last wave up. Looking for a break to hold position and will pt on reversal.

ewo is bottoming out in green and looks to turn up, cci is above 100 again

Dave

the 15 min chart seems to have a good handle on the retrace and subwaves count with this wave count indacater.

Dave