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AUD/USD

  • #98,121
  • Aug 1, 2016 8:44am Aug 1, 2016 8:44am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Imho your chart looks more disposed southwards than northwards. Trade safe. KP
Was looking for a rounded retest of the .754x handle, clear support in the yellow boxed area, pulled the order because the way it slowly drifted towards my buy price. Looks like we may be seeing a small bounce now.
  • #98,122
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:26am Aug 1, 2016 9:26am
Does anyone else think that we may not see a cut tonight as this is Stevens' last meeting as Governor? He could very well hold off on the rate cut but suggest one is coming soon under Lowe. This should send the pair up in the short term, right? This is just pure speculation by me.
  • #98,123
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:33am Aug 1, 2016 9:33am
Quoting Bushi-pips
Does anyone else think that we may not see a cut tonight as this is Stevens' last meeting as Governor? He could very well hold off on the rate cut but suggest one is coming soon under Lowe. This should send the pair up in the short term, right? This is just pure speculation by me.
I'd go out in a blaze of glory and drop them to zero if I was him.
  • #98,124
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:55am Aug 1, 2016 9:55am
Quoting fxtrader18
{quote} I'd go out in a blaze of glory and drop them to zero if I was him.
Attached Image
  • #98,125
  • Aug 1, 2016 11:01am Aug 1, 2016 11:01am
This is what I see as being some possibilities.
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  • #98,126
  • Aug 1, 2016 11:27am Aug 1, 2016 11:27am
Steven's not cutting is deffo a possibility, there has been a recovery in the price of iron ore, one of AUD's largest exports.

Bloomberg today: Iron Ore Storms Higher as Futures Top Close During April’s Boom

Never know, the consensus has been wrong multiple times recently.
  • #98,127
  • Aug 1, 2016 11:30am Aug 1, 2016 11:30am
Keep an eye out for the other data points tonight.building permits and trade balance could both easily move AUD 50+ pips.


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  • #98,128
  • Aug 1, 2016 12:57pm Aug 1, 2016 12:57pm
Something been leaked?
  • #98,129
  • Aug 1, 2016 1:17pm Aug 1, 2016 1:17pm
this is dilemma, the preceding fundamental indicator before the cash rate seems to be good..... AU can go up +50 pips before they announce the rate.
want to close my short position now but i think i ll leave them with SL BE +1.......
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making money is easy in forex, losing money is even easier...
  • #98,130
  • Aug 1, 2016 1:29pm Aug 1, 2016 1:29pm
Fundamentally the Aussie is overvalued. So the more probable direction is southwards.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98,131
  • Aug 1, 2016 1:42pm Aug 1, 2016 1:42pm
will be trading my local currency aud today. Rba should cut Interest rates. Most likely audusd , expect a 200 plus pip movement on gbpaud after the news , don't get caught out if they cut
  • #98,132
  • Aug 1, 2016 2:05pm Aug 1, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting gugun555
this is dilemma, the preceding fundamental indicator before the cash rate seems to be good..... AU can go up +50 pips before they announce the rate. want to close my short position now but i think i ll leave them with SL BE +1....... {image}
Yeah, my sentiments also. Strong moves during late NY session have, in my estimation, been followed by good retraces during Asian session up to the announcement period. I am leaning towards no cut so opened a long on A/J. Even if I'm wrong I can still hold on with positive carry until I recoup any possible losses due to a rate cut. Unless of course I decide to exit my long before hand if my anticipated retrace is quite strong.
Enter Signature
  • #98,133
  • Aug 1, 2016 3:36pm Aug 1, 2016 3:36pm
Everyone and their dog thinks RBA will cut, but RBA is very unpredictable.

In reality they should, and the iron ore rebound is very temporary and only serves to push the AUD up, which is yet another good reason to cut. Building approvals will weigh heavily (RBA gets forward access to this data).
  • #98,134
  • Aug 1, 2016 4:29pm Aug 1, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting Bushi-pips
Does anyone else think that we may not see a cut tonight as this is Stevens' last meeting as Governor? He could very well hold off on the rate cut but suggest one is coming soon under Lowe. This should send the pair up in the short term, right? This is just pure speculation by me.
I didn't know it was Stevens last meeting as Governor. Loved fxtrader18's suggestion. If Stevens & Lowe work closely / are like minded then I expect they will make a decision on current data rather than delay a month.

Data overnight (http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/TargetRateTracker.htm) suggests 68% chance of a cut so solid move down if they do cut, larger move up if they don't is what I'm expecting.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #98,135
  • Aug 1, 2016 5:36pm Aug 1, 2016 5:36pm
Whats everyone lookin' like tonight? Lots going on
  • #98,136
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:53pm Aug 1, 2016 7:53pm
Quoting san99
{quote} Yeah, my sentiments also. Strong moves during late NY session have, in my estimation, been followed by good retraces during Asian session up to the announcement period. I am leaning towards no cut so opened a long on A/J. Even if I'm wrong I can still hold on with positive carry until I recoup any possible losses due to a rate cut. Unless of course I decide to exit my long before hand if my anticipated retrace is quite strong.
Not retracing as much as I was expecting. Maybe more to come in next couple of hours leading up to announcement but with Yen news apparently on tap too content with my +20.
Enter Signature
  • #98,137
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:11pm Aug 1, 2016 9:11pm
Surely the RBA has more credibility than to 'leave it to Lowe so he can stamp his mark'...

With interest rate futures pricing in a 75% chance of a cut and the market obviously short, the risk is to the upside. Bigtime.

Sneaky AUD/USD level that's been in play today:
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  • #98,138
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:37pm Aug 1, 2016 9:37pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
will be trading my local currency aud today. Rba should cut Interest rates. Most likely audusd , expect a 200 plus pip movement on gbpaud after the news , don't get caught out if they cut
I took 100pips nice and quick too
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,139
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:44pm Aug 1, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I took 100pips nice and quick too
I took 3
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #98,140
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:48pm Aug 1, 2016 9:48pm
Held up well on previous channel support.
I think buyers will start coming in. will see after London open.
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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