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USD/RUB

  • #741
  • Jul 26, 2016 4:35am Jul 26, 2016 4:35am
Quoting Earleone
Actually the USD Index and USD/RUB do not have any strong correlation long term. It is Oil that prevail. Correlation table here: {image}
Thanks for that. Something that strikes me in a negative way is all these correlations I see here, because it just seems that RUB is in the basket with "exotic" currencies that all move in tandem although they have vastly different fundamentals...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #742
  • Jul 26, 2016 4:45am Jul 26, 2016 4:45am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks for that. Something that strikes me in a negative way is all these correlations I see here, because it just seems that RUB is in the basket with "exotic" currencies that all move in tandem although they have vastly different fundamentals...
Yes, I actually was surprised that USD Index was not stronger correlated with USDRUB . I been using this correlation table for long time. But just today added USD Index to it. ( My broker Pepperstone started to give feed for USD Index just recently, actually shortly after I was asking for it )
That Nok is correlated is understandable. But that Zar is strongly correlated I do not understand the reason for ( since it is not the USD Index that prevail in the movements in these instruments )

Actually I think some of the reason is that eurusd is weighted to strongly on the USD Index. Not shown on the image I posted but it is correlated with -96 to USD Index. GBPUSD is correlated only +2 to USD Index on same table.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #743
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:13am Jul 26, 2016 5:13am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes, I actually was surprised that USD Index was not stronger correlated with USDRUB . I been using this correlation table for long time. But just today added USD Index to it. ( My broker Pepperstone started to give feed for USD Index just recently, actually shortly after I was asking for it ) That Nok is correlated is understandable. But that Zar is strongly correlated I do not understand the reason for ( since it is not the USD Index that prevail in the movements in these instruments ) Actually I think some of the reason is that eurusd...
Good points, I had the same thoughts. I have personally seen that USD Index has greater correlation with USD/RUB but as you say EUR might be weighing on USD Index. Btw as you pointed out this is a nice level for short USD/RUB. Specifically 66.07. But this is a short for people with balls as this is a dangerous week.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #744
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:21am Jul 26, 2016 5:21am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good points, I had the same thoughts. I have personally seen that USD Index has greater correlation with USD/RUB but as you say EUR might be weighing on USD Index. Btw as you pointed out this is a nice level for short USD/RUB. But this is a short for people with balls as this is a dangerous week.
. I added now at 66.04 . And are in with 40% of my regular position for USDRUB. Average price is 64.7

If oil will continue rally and break out the support I will hedge with shorts Oil to keep DD lower. Positive swaps for both instruments so it can be good even if oil goes down below 30 level again. Strong sell on oil technical on all higher TF and also fundamental. So currently swimming against the stream. I am comfortable with it and can sit all the way to 30 or 20 and even below with hedging. Also saving bullets for turn in usdrub.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #745
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:21am Jul 26, 2016 5:21am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes, I actually was surprised that USD Index was not stronger correlated with USDRUB . I been using this correlation table for long time. But just today added USD Index to it. ( My broker Pepperstone started to give feed for USD Index just recently, actually shortly after I was asking for it ) That Nok is correlated is understandable. But that Zar is strongly correlated I do not understand the reason for ( since it is not the USD Index that prevail in the movements in these instruments ) Actually I think some of the reason is that eurusd...
Another thing as you point out is that some correlations make sense because they are oil based economies but others dont. Like USD/ZAR... And I have seen the pairs moving vastly differently so it is difficult to understand the results in your table.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #746
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:28am Jul 26, 2016 5:28am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Another thing as you point out is that some correlations make sense because they are oil based economies but others dont. Like USD/ZAR... And I have seen the pairs moving vastly differently so it is difficult to understand the results in your table.
I agree to that. But if you see USDZAR lately. It goes completely against USD Index. So I beleive table is correct. ( It is set to daily TF last 300 bars) I can also set to shorter or longer term. But found that a little bit more then last years data is nice to use.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #747
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:28am Jul 26, 2016 5:28am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} . I added now at 66.04 . And are in with 40% of my regular position for USDRUB. Average price is 64.7 If oil will continue rally and break out the support I will hedge with shorts Oil to keep DD lower. Positive swaps for both instruments so it can be good even if oil goes down below 30 level again. Strong sell on oil technical on all higher TF and also fundamental. So currently swimming against the stream. I am comfortable with it and can sit all the way to 30 or 20 and even below with hedging. Also saving bullets for turn in...
Good strategy. To add a couple of points here. On the 4H chart 66.06 is a critical level that we need to watch. If it is broken to the upside it will be the first time since the 9th of March that the pair revisits this MA, when it broke it to the downside. On the daily chart we also have the 100 MA at this level (66.05) so it is quite an interesting level where we are at the moment. Let's see how it plays out. The 2 main forces behind the move is oil and Putin/CB rhetoric which at the moment is contradicting but we will see how it unwinds at the meeting on Friday.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #748
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:31am Jul 26, 2016 5:31am
What I truly find strange at the moment is the behavior of the equity markets and their correlation with oil...For the past months we had oil going up and equity markets cheering and moving together. At the moment there is a complete disconcert with the two assets...Oil crashing and equity markets cheerful.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #749
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:33am Jul 26, 2016 5:33am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good strategy. To add a couple of points here. On the 4H chart 66.06 is a critical level that we need to watch. If it is broken to the upside it will be the first time since the 9th of March that the pair revisits this MA, when it broke it to the downside. On the daily chart we also have the 100 MA at this level (66.05) so it is quite an interesting level where we are at the moment. Let's see how it plays out. The 2 main forces behind the move is oil and Putin/CB rhetoric which at the moment is contradicting but we will see how it unwinds...
. Also Crude at support at 42.80 that is current handle. So with close below on daily for oil and USD/RUB with close above 66.06 I will start my hedging on retracements and collect the swap.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #750
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:38am Jul 26, 2016 5:38am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} . Also Crude at support at 42.80 that is current handle. So with close below on daily for oil and USD/RUB with close above 66.06 I will start my hedging on retracements and collect the swap.
whatever happens I think that we will have a retracement the next few days..Too much too fast even if it is warranted, which btw I dont think it is as far as oil is concerned.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #751
  • Jul 26, 2016 5:47am Jul 26, 2016 5:47am
Quoting manosk
What I truly find strange at the moment is the behavior of the equity markets and their correlation with oil...For the past months we had oil going up and equity markets cheering and moving together. At the moment there is a complete disconcert with the two assets...Oil crashing and equity markets cheerful.
Rig count and filled up storage. Oil fundamental short and middle term is strong short.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #752
  • Jul 26, 2016 7:55am Jul 26, 2016 7:55am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good strategy. To add a couple of points here. On the 4H chart 66.06 is a critical level that we need to watch. If it is broken to the upside it will be the first time since the 9th of March that the pair revisits this MA, when it broke it to the downside. On the daily chart we also have the 100 MA at this level (66.05) so it is quite an interesting level where we are at the moment. Let's see how it plays out. The 2 main forces behind the move is oil and Putin/CB rhetoric which at the moment is contradicting but we will see how it unwinds...
A final point to mention is a horizontal line that is quite important on the daily chart at 66.73. Remains to be seen if it will be respected.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #753
  • Edited 5:39am Jul 28, 2016 5:29am | Edited 5:39am
Started hedging with shorts oil . Approximately 25% of open positions in USDRUB hedged. Technical 0utlook for oil is strong sell shortterm and middle term and even long term. So will scale in/ average down the hedge to 100 % on retracements. Support 42.80 is broken.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #754
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:20am Jul 28, 2016 9:20am
I actually think it is a unique situation where the main carry trade of course has positive swap. But that it can be hedged with another instrument like short crude that is 96 % correlated and also the hedge gives positive swap. What more can we dream about?
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #755
  • Jul 28, 2016 10:44am Jul 28, 2016 10:44am
Quoting Earleone
I actually think it is a unique situation where the main carry trade of course has positive swap. But that it can be hedged with another instrument like short crude that is 96 % correlated and also the hedge gives positive swap. What more can we dream about?
Good point. For those interested in making money overnight every night this is a great trade. I am in general concerned with the USD/RUB rate and tomorrow is a very important date. The information I have is conflicting. So everything depends on oil at the moment
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #756
  • Jul 28, 2016 10:46am Jul 28, 2016 10:46am
Quoting manosk
{quote} A final point to mention is a horizontal line that is quite important on the daily chart at 66.73. Remains to be seen if it will be respected.
USD/RUB reached my targets for retracement. I would not like to see a continuation although I acknowledge a potential overshoot to 67.75 is possible without interruption on the weekly chart. Let's see
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #757
  • Jul 28, 2016 11:17am Jul 28, 2016 11:17am
Quoting manosk
{quote} USD/RUB reached my targets for retracement. I would not like to see a continuation although I acknowledge a potential overshoot to 67.75 is possible without interruption on the weekly chart. Let's see
http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/73430
In Russian

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #758
  • Jul 28, 2016 12:19pm Jul 28, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/73430 In Russian Best D.P.
So there is disagreement internally, the economists cannot agree what will happen tomorrow. Not a good sign. Fact is that as long as oil is falling USD/RUB will be rising.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #759
  • Jul 29, 2016 2:09am Jul 29, 2016 2:09am
At 67.10 USD/RUB reached the 50% retracement of the whole move from 48.90 to 85.XX.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #760
  • Jul 29, 2016 2:23am Jul 29, 2016 2:23am
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...nalysis-352439
Quoting manosk
At 67.10 USD/RUB reached the 50% retracement of the whole move from 48.90 to 85.XX.
temptation to sell continues to be stopped by looking at the Weekly; thank you
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