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  • #142,061
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:40am Jul 28, 2016 8:40am
B. Nay
  • #142,062
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:46am Jul 28, 2016 8:46am
I am absolutely bearish. And think this is a good opportunity to add shorts.

c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,063
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:51am Jul 28, 2016 8:51am
c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3

I prefer B as it is more conservative approach; however, we are aligned for Short, Mid and Long Term Leg in my opinion due to Hawkish Fed and Inline numbers. Our Outlook in EU is SELL and GU Aggressive Sell. BOJ can have a huge impact in EU if it crosses the Line of no return with Helicopter Money and basically print money as you go which devalues CB's and EU outlook even more.

If you are considering (b. Nay I stay put for final targets) "FED will hike sooner or later"the targets are the same and reasoning of FED Hikes are in play for next quarter why would you not double down?

With this all is in play, I would double down my position here as sisse has said before, if you know your Outlook, then any instrument you use to trade will be right. I have waited for this to develop for many months and am sticking with this MAP. In a SELL Outlook you SELL from the INSIDE OUT.

C. is my final answer

GL to everyone!
  • #142,064
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:05am Jul 28, 2016 9:05am
Quoting IMARICH1
c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3 I prefer B as it is more conservative approach; however, we are aligned for Short, Mid and Long Term Leg in my opinion due to Hawkish Fed and Inline numbers. Our Outlook in EU is SELL and GU Aggressive Sell. BOJ can have a huge impact in EU if it crosses the Line of no return with Helicopter Money and basically print money as you go which devalues CB's and EU outlook even more. If you are considering...
Agreed, C until Europe sorts out its issues with brexit and of course the other ____exits that are bound to come around sooner or later. Input terrorism, etc etc etc

and US doing relatively well in comparison.
  • #142,065
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:09am Jul 28, 2016 9:09am
c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell terra incognita sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3
  • #142,066
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:39am Jul 28, 2016 9:39am
C. Short
  • #142,067
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:50am Jul 28, 2016 9:50am
Thanks all...decisions updated. Quality comments and reasons...proper trading / market talk. GL all 'walking the talk'.

Europe going home will kill the day as we approach the BOJ and US markets are expected to stay sidelined in a thin summer afternoon session leaving Tokyo rule the board later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,068
  • Jul 28, 2016 9:53am Jul 28, 2016 9:53am
I am with option c , extreme bearish
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,069
  • Jul 28, 2016 10:10am Jul 28, 2016 10:10am
I would prefer to clear my real positions and trade something else, as EU is too dull. But I gotta admit, seeing so many bears kinda influence my will to risk.
C for me.
  • #142,070
  • Jul 28, 2016 10:10am Jul 28, 2016 10:10am
c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3
Let the market come to you, patience is the key !
  • #142,071
  • Jul 28, 2016 12:05pm Jul 28, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> There are bigger things in play than the already more powerful QE expected. Japan could cross a MAJOR NO TRESPASS line in modern economics and monetary policy. Helicopter money and monetising all, is a line that hasn't been crossed in a very long time (19th century) in major develop economies (a few failed, banana republics and poor countries have done in the last 30 years. Zimbabwe being the latest remarkable disaster) because the results has been CATASTROPHIC !!! in every single case in the history of Economics. --> If they cross that...
Totally agree here, i'm just not sure if BOJ is really pulling the trigger on Helicopter money. THe last time they did it, WW2 happened. TMR is one of the most important risk pivot event of the year (last one was brexit) i'm going to buy in UJ move on spot as it has a large range above it and sell GJ in case BOJ miss market expectation
  • #142,072
  • Jul 28, 2016 12:59pm Jul 28, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting sisse
Thanks all...decisions updated. Quality comments and reasons...proper trading / market talk. GL all 'walking the talk'. Europe going home will kill the day as we approach the BOJ and US markets are expected to stay sidelined in a thin summer afternoon session leaving Tokyo rule the board later. sisse
thx to you
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,073
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:03pm Jul 28, 2016 2:03pm
--> Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from sell to Aggressive Sell
I think the best time to sell sterling is tonight/tomorrow just after BOJ release (just after the pick!).
  • #142,074
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:13pm Jul 28, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting Fadhl
--> Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from sell to Aggressive Sell I think the best time to sell sterling is tonight/tomorrow just after BOJ release (just after the pick!).
BoE on August 4th , Carney has to deliver ...last time he didn't ... sterling[cable] spiked up few hundred ticks then faded...expectations is that he would act this time....we're in the same range since the last couple of weeks ...you pick the lvl(s) and direction then wait ...GL
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,075
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:24pm Jul 28, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} BoE on August 4th , Carney has to deliver ...last time he didn't ... sterling[cable] spiked up few hundred ticks then faded...expectations is that he would act this time....we're in the same range since the last couple of weeks ...you pick the lvl(s) and direction then wait ...GL
BOE will further decrease the pound; so it's now to sell it.
This said, the latest and recent Central Bank statements/announcements (BOJ, BOE, CBE, FOMC) deceived the markets with unchanged policy. Is it possible that tonight BOJ deceives again the market? To be in the safe side, I will wait and sell GJ after the release. GL to everyone!
  • #142,076
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:47pm Jul 28, 2016 2:47pm
Interesting to read: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...r-snag-emerges
Thanks to Geppy who shared it!
  • #142,077
  • Jul 28, 2016 4:19pm Jul 28, 2016 4:19pm
Quoting sisse; ===============OPENING Iteration 14c ============== ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++ "Knee jerk reaction or a trend change" ONLY FOR SHORTS -> LMT SELL 1.108x [check
-> TP1 => 1.098x [check] | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* After the FED and before the BOJ we are back to square one , How would you manage the remaining position? If you don't reply is assume you stay put... sisse
A bit late as can't get much screen time at moment, but was staying put anyway.

b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "FED will hike sooner or later"

Thanks sisse
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #142,078
  • Jul 28, 2016 4:36pm Jul 28, 2016 4:36pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Totally agree here, i'm just not sure if BOJ is really pulling the trigger on Helicopter money. THe last time they did it, WW2 happened. TMR is one of the most important risk pivot event of the year (last one was brexit) i'm going to buy in UJ move on spot as it has a large range above it and sell GJ in case BOJ miss market expectation
If not now, then it will come soon. The BOJ hold (off the top of my head) 40% of all JGBs - these will never be sold back to the open market, meaning a de-facto monetising of debt has already occurred. Helicopter money will be a more open and upfront way of tackling the dire problems facing their economy. With or without immigration (which is badly needed to offset the dreadful demographics, but to which the Japanese are totally adverse), some serious fiscal expansion is needed to inject some demand into the economy.
  • #142,079
  • Jul 28, 2016 4:43pm Jul 28, 2016 4:43pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on US equities taking the highs to 2185.x for the FED play and for those trading (or aiming to complete the leg) in OIL to 40.3x.[clearing]
All eyes on the BOJ tonight. Before that a quick update for those in OIL, manually cleared all on the test of the handle @41.0x before final target, I am not interested in managing it with BOJ in play overnight.

On the rest Equities worldwide ready to take the highs, Nikkei (key for today) in the launching platform for a very tradable and sharp leg to 18000 on aggressive QE and even stronger with helicopter money and all that, GOLD sitting in flip area, EURO and Dollar just on the very backseat for tonight and the key for today YEN in full control of the whole board:

=> For the macro flows:
All micro and short term levels will be raised for today play in UJ with 106.4x as only rain maker

 

  1. A QE on steroids, rates with helicopter money for a direct play 105.5x -> 106.4x ->114.xx with intermediate stop 110.4x.
  2. Flop on size of QE or in rates, scope and extension for a direct move 105.5x -> 103.8x and play the zigzag back to 106.4x for the summer.
  3. A major flop [not expected at all] 105.5x -> 100.71 with a intermediate stop 103.8 and unlock TAwise [only]the extension 94.8x

For those in GJ will be the widow maker. I know GJ lately is attracting a lot of newbies and gamblers because the wide volatility intraday and thin market but today if you don't know exactly what you are doing (and even if you do and don't have a proper entry) is not recommend to trade it spot and worst in a small retail shop. 139.2x is the rain maker.

-> 138.4x -> 148.6x direct with a full bazooka or 137.x -> 148.6x with intermediate stop 142.0x with a half one. To the other side, a flop is direct trade in a lighting fast move 132.2x with intermediate stop 134.6x ... If you are going to trade it, take it in the way out with a LMT stop with momentum (expensive tickets) and avoid at all cost looking for cheap tickets....

GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,080
  • Jul 28, 2016 5:10pm Jul 28, 2016 5:10pm
C for me.

c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3
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