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AUD/USD

  • #98,101
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:46am Jul 27, 2016 9:46am
Quoting redalert
Australia's lowest inflation since 1999. Rate cut will come. Especially if 0.75 holds. I know I harp on about it but iron ore is saving this pair from imminent collapse.
Just saw the iron ore price and can't help thinking price rises there have been all that's stopped CPI data having a bigger fall on A/U. If so, then lookout when ore takes it's next move down!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #98,102
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:58am Jul 27, 2016 11:58am
AUDUSD still in sideways mode, largely.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98,103
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:26pm Jul 27, 2016 1:26pm
Fed rate unchanged
  • #98,104
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:34pm Jul 27, 2016 1:34pm
the ​0.7450 Fib is key to the next range
  • #98,105
  • Jul 27, 2016 8:05pm Jul 27, 2016 8:05pm
Anyone actively trading the news in 25 minutes? What we got going on tonight?
  • #98,106
  • Jul 28, 2016 1:40pm Jul 28, 2016 1:40pm
Man, this thing has been ugly the last week or so, unless you like to scalp and trade tight ranges. AUD pairs always seem to look so clean to the left but can be a real pain to trade sometimes.

Right now price is below both the weekly and monthly pivot, so I'm suspecting that this pair may drop. But I'm just gonna sit on my hands for a while and see what happens.
  • #98,107
  • Jul 30, 2016 1:36am Jul 30, 2016 1:36am
Quoting attilafx
I usually hate this pair. {image}
Crucial right now. We are back in the longer channel IMO.
If it moves higher from here we will see 0.7970 ~ 0.80 on the boards.

Else, follow the red one :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,108
  • Jul 30, 2016 3:30am Jul 30, 2016 3:30am
Hi Guys just thought I'd add this chart. Been posting updates on twitter on this last week anyone caught this would of made a nice easy 50 pips.

I think we will see .78 this week and I cant wait for it to go higher hopefully we see a .79 to .80 before placing long term shorts.
https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/758586481417916416
https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/759011211073589248
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 46 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,109
  • Jul 30, 2016 3:53am Jul 30, 2016 3:53am
I think that AUD/USD asset will go down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,110
  • Jul 30, 2016 3:58am Jul 30, 2016 3:58am
Quoting SpaceYacht
Anyone actively trading the news in 25 minutes? What we got going on tonight?
Aussie had a strong Bullish uptrend as it managed to cross 0.7600 and i do not expect further gains during the weekly closing.
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #98,111
  • Jul 30, 2016 7:18am Jul 30, 2016 7:18am
Quoting PaulDaemon
Hi Guys just thought I'd add this chart. Been posting updates on twitter on this last week anyone caught this would of made a nice easy 50 pips. I think we will see .78 this week and I cant wait for it to go higher hopefully we see a .79 to .80 before placing long term shorts. https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/758586481417916416 https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/759011211073589248 {image}
Didnt realize cash rate meeting on Tuesday forecast for .25% cut, this may be the big mover for AUD this coming week.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,112
  • Jul 30, 2016 6:29pm Jul 30, 2016 6:29pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
Hi Guys just thought I'd add this chart. Been posting updates on twitter on this last week anyone caught this would of made a nice easy 50 pips. I think we will see .78 this week and I cant wait for it to go higher hopefully we see a .79 to .80 before placing long term shorts. https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/758586481417916416 https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/759011211073589248 {image}

Hey Paul you've been one of the most consistent long term bears on this thread for ages. Now you have suddenly reversed and made the most bullish prediction I've ever seen here... "I think we will see .78 this WEEK" What rationale do you have for this forecast? Or as Pauline would say "Please explain"
  • #98,113
  • Edited 8:33pm Jul 30, 2016 8:04pm | Edited 8:33pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hey Paul you've been one of the most consistent long term bears on this thread for ages. Now you have suddenly reversed and made the most bullish prediction I've ever seen here... "I think we will see .78 this WEEK" What rationale do you have for this forecast? Or as Pauline would say "Please explain"
I am still long term bear on AUD but with the USD turning bearish again and a fed rate hike for this year is looking out of the question AUD COT are holding longs so its a high possibility of it going up for the short term. I still remain a short on the highs trader because the AUD has a tendency to crash at anytime. Even if RBA cut rates this week it could still climb higher as it did when they cut rates last year.

So I am being precautious on shorting at this point in time Im not one to use a sl when trading AUD and dont want to be caught in a negative equity again for weeks or months.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,114
  • Jul 31, 2016 6:04am Jul 31, 2016 6:04am
Quoting Flieldel
I think that AUD/USD asset will go down. {image}
maybe ...
  • #98,115
  • Edited 7:32am Jul 31, 2016 7:21am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I am still long term bear on AUD but with the USD turning bearish again and a fed rate hike for this year is looking out of the question AUD COT are holding longs so its a high possibility of it going up for the short term. I still remain a short on the highs trader because the AUD has a tendency to crash at anytime. Even if RBA cut rates this week it could still climb higher as it did when they cut rates last year. So I am being precautious on shorting at this point in time Im not one to use a sl when trading AUD and dont want to be caught...

It's tempting to place a short around 76 based on previous rejections here, but I agree that this week could see U.S. dollar weakness across the board. Coupling that with uncertainty about the rate cut, and I'll leave it alone. If we don't get a rate cut, and U.S. dollar weakness continues, I see a good short opportunity at 78.5

There's another interesting line in the second chart coming down from the weekly lows which intersects this week around 77.
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  • #98,116
  • Jul 31, 2016 3:55pm Jul 31, 2016 3:55pm
Market opening in 5 mins. 0.7586
  • #98,117
  • Jul 31, 2016 10:19pm Jul 31, 2016 10:19pm
consolidation today pre-RBA tomorrow. could swing any level up or down, though not far.
interesting to see that 93% of the top traders on my broker are in short trades, an 11% increase from friday.
  • #98,118
  • Edited 10:03am Aug 1, 2016 9:43am | Edited 10:03am
Will long AU for 20ish pips at 0.754x

EDIT: Order pulled
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,119
  • Aug 1, 2016 10:05am Aug 1, 2016 10:05am
I got short around .7595 looking for this cup handle to form, but I was stopped out at .7610 like a chump. Lesson Learned. Food for thought for the rest of you though. Perhaps it rebounds to .76 and flies from there......
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  • #98,120
  • Aug 1, 2016 10:25am Aug 1, 2016 10:25am
Quoting fxtrader18
Will long AU for 20ish pips at 0.754x EDIT: Order pulled {image}
Imho your chart looks more disposed southwards than northwards. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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