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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #18,081
  • Edited 5:13am Jul 27, 2016 4:18am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting Brockenstein
Hey guys, New to this thread. I don't know about you guys but Im still shaking my head about this weeks moves. I may not be as seasoned as you guys but... WTH?? Really expected a hard short this week...
Between BoJ (disappointing) later this week and BoE probably cutting rates at their August meeting, that should ultimately come.

I read a Goldman Sachs analyst last year in early October, who said that the GJ was the most overvalued pair in the spectrum. He said it doesn't ultimately matter what the Fed, the BoJ or the BoE do, the pair WILL fall in the medium to long term, perhaps even halving in value (90-95) At that date it was trading at 183. After that it went up to 188, and thereafter has only declined since. Hmmm, wise words!! How low can it go??? I would think Brexit can only exacerbate this move, as it certainly wasn't in the author's thoughts at the time of penning his article.
  • #18,082
  • Edited 10:21am Jul 27, 2016 6:14am | Edited 10:21am
Does anyone think this is possible as much as i do?
Looking at GJ since brexit, it usually pullback from 61.8 Fib on every Move it made.
Now Following the rejection of the breakout this morning (still on 61.8 Fib on 4Hrs Timeframe) i think this may happen in a long time.
I maybe wrong.

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  • #18,083
  • Jul 27, 2016 7:54am Jul 27, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Pip-Miner
out reload {image}
My 139 was out. I reload on 139.50 and out at 138.10. Reload at 139.10 and out again at 138.20. Reload 139 and out at 138.20. Reload 138.60 and out 138.30. Now on counter trade TP 139.30 .
  • #18,084
  • Jul 27, 2016 7:56am Jul 27, 2016 7:56am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} That might survive. Not sure though, still holding my longs.
Your long were superb. Din expect GJ was making a U turn. Anyway, my major trade still with short now although current time is my counter trade small lot.
  • #18,085
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:19am Jul 27, 2016 9:19am
it's to early to say something about price behavior. We have 2 more days till end of the week. I'm sure that tomorrow we'll see big move. We just need to wait for this action.
God, i love, how i'm trade!!!
  • #18,086
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:25am Jul 27, 2016 9:25am
Quoting FxBreath
it's to early to say something about price behavior. We have 2 more days till end of the week. I'm sure that tomorrow we'll see big move. We just need to wait for this action.
Yup. After FOMC
  • #18,087
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:03am Jul 27, 2016 10:03am
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} Yup. After FOMC
Does FOMC have much effect on this pair? I'd imagine if it's hawkish, GJ will go risk on and rise. Does that tend to be the case?
  • #18,088
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:23am Jul 27, 2016 10:23am
Quoting lancedes
{quote} Does FOMC have much effect on this pair? I'd imagine if it's hawkish, GJ will go risk on and rise. Does that tend to be the case?
Yup. You are correct. Let see what the news be. I am still on long for GJ and exit before FOMC. Hopefully later can place a short on GJ.
  • #18,089
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:53am Jul 27, 2016 10:53am
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} Yup. You are correct. Let see what the news be. I am still on long for GJ and exit before FOMC. Hopefully later can place a short on GJ.
Thanks gg. So you're obviously anticipating a dovish fomc then.
  • #18,090
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:58am Jul 27, 2016 10:58am
Quoting lancedes
{quote} Does FOMC have much effect on this pair? I'd imagine if it's hawkish, GJ will go risk on and rise. Does that tend to be the case?
FOMC is usually a USD driven event. That creates a tug-of-war in GBP/JPY as GBP/USD and USD/JPY are the main drivers.

That said, a risk-off environment would send GBP/JPY down. And, in my opinion, a hawkish Fed may result in a risk-off mode because the markets will be pouting that the free ride is over.
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  • #18,091
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:19am Jul 27, 2016 11:19am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} FOMC is usually a USD driven event. That creates a tug-of-war in GBP/JPY as GBP/USD and USD/JPY are the main drivers. That said, a risk-off environment would send GBP/JPY down. And, in my opinion, a hawkish Fed may result in a risk-off mode because the markets will be pouting that the free ride is over.
Isn't it about which currency would fall faster? I mean it has to be GBP loosing value faster than JPY (which should be the case) for this pair to fall..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #18,092
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:29am Jul 27, 2016 11:29am
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} Isn't it about which currency would fall faster? I mean it has to be GBP loosing value faster than JPY (which should be the case) for this pair to fall..
Yes, and that's the whole point of tug-of-war. Two side pull opposite of one another. It could be a stalemate or one could overcome the other. It doesn't "have to be" anything.

It's all going to come down to risk-on/risk-off. If things go risk-off there will be a move into USD, a drop in equities, and a drop in USD/JPY.
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  • #18,093
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:00pm Jul 27, 2016 12:00pm
Anyone else trading through the FOMC? I have trades in EU and GJ both short. I'm thinking hawkish with a .25 rate hike promised by the end of the month. Guess we will find out in an hour. Hope everyone is having a good day and catches some green pips here shortly
  • #18,094
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:14pm Jul 27, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting FSUtrader
Anyone else trading through the FOMC? I have trades in EU and GJ both short. I'm thinking hawkish with a .25 rate hike promised by the end of the month. Guess we will find out in an hour. Hope everyone is having a good day and catches some green pips here shortly
Hey, yeap i am in trade i hold longs from 105,03 and i dont see any clear view of cutting rates. i think that it wil stay at 0,5. Today we will touch 1,0673. Stop loss at 104,40
  • #18,095
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:14pm Jul 27, 2016 12:14pm
Up from here and down we goWaiting for 2mr's London to decide
One Punch, One Kill
  • #18,096
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:17pm Jul 27, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting FSUtrader
Anyone else trading through the FOMC? I have trades in EU and GJ both short. I'm thinking hawkish with a .25 rate hike promised by the end of the month. Guess we will find out in an hour. Hope everyone is having a good day and catches some green pips here shortly
They won't hike today. At least it's highly unlikely.

I do think they want to rejigger expectations of a potential hike this year (e.g. at least slightly hawkish).
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  • #18,097
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:34pm Jul 27, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} FOMC is usually a USD driven event. That creates a tug-of-war in GBP/JPY as GBP/USD and USD/JPY are the main drivers. That said, a risk-off environment would send GBP/JPY down. And, in my opinion, a hawkish Fed may result in a risk-off mode because the markets will be pouting that the free ride is over.
Thanks, I see your logic now behind a GJ short
  • #18,098
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:08pm Jul 27, 2016 1:08pm
And now we can get on to speculating about the BoJ.
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  • #18,099
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:28pm Jul 27, 2016 1:28pm
EU all over the place right now
  • #18,100
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:45pm Jul 27, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting FSUtrader
EU all over the place right now
Yeah, overall a "meh" event which is usually the case.

Still holding all positions. I'm not bailing on GBP/JPY shorts unless we see a clear break of the 50-bar SMA on the 4-hour chart.
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