AUD/USD

I think Australia's CPI q/q tomorrow will be the biggest indicator. If it's poor (below prediction), certainly opens the door for two more rate cuts.

Been looking for the volumes indicator as on your chart.
Do you have it available to share for MT4?

if the Fed turns hawkish again, yea probably downwards for the AUD, and it will begin its gradual depreciation until the Fed again swings the dovish way. then it will climb. Seen that happen so many times in the past year. all the major swings in trend were triggered by the Fed more so than domestic events (the one exception being when the RBA cut rates once). if no change in the Fed's view then expect the ranging to continue between 74-76cents i suppose.

Does anyone know of any news that caused that spike? Just had my shorts eaten!

Probably this:

"US Elections: Trump is now ahead of Hillary Clinton by 44% to 39% - Rabobank"

some comment by the japanese finance minister that sent the yen surging. im guessing that led to a kneejerk USD sell off (USDJPY pair)...and so you'll see the result in all the USD pairs.

i went short at 7489 just a moment before the spike too. how annoying. took a second short from 7530, expecting that to hold well. if not some kind of intra-day retracement to help me out, otherwise i'm just gonna stop out at 7540.

"How annoying" indeed. Knee jerk reactions suck. I had loaded up with a few more shorts than usual. I can see that if Dickhead Trump got his hands on the joysticks to the nukes markets would crash, but it's hard to budget that a little non-eventful comment from Japan could just knock me out like that.

Guys just be careful shorting aussie, I have been staying out of it because COT is net long on aussie by around 30,000 contracts, However these big players have been holding longs in the red for the past two weeks. The CPI data will lead the way....

not too worried about the net longs part, but more concerned about this ending up in a short squeeze pre-CPI and pre-Fed. therefore the stop. looks like i may have to be prepared to take a loss on this one today. annoying. made only 12 pips profit so far this week but still in a net loss over the first two days.

What you guys think?

This is my take on Aussie



Aussie slowly is making its way up. After 0.78 back in April it declined towards 0.71 in late May.
As I mentioned in Commitments of Traders report

We know that speculators turned NET LONG in AUD futures last week.
This week, non-commercial traders carried on adding to their long exposure.
They opened additional 12K long positions. At the same time, they added 830 new shorts.
Despite the bullish bias, the price might correct to the downside before resuming the uptrend.
Huge volume of long contract suggests the bullish outlook among smart money and the prices should climb higher in the coming weeks.

Based on the above and despite rather dovish outlook on Australian currency, I remain bullish in mid to long term.
The current price action presents an opportunity to enter long position.
During the last Asian session the pair made higher high above 0.75.
I expect the price to pull back towards 0.75 or lower once again. This will serve as a support/former resistance and should find some buyers.
There is AUD CPI q/q is coming out tomorrow at 2:30am.
April’s read disappointed printing less than expectation. Many traders are eyeballing this report as an indication of RBA’s stance on interest rates later on this year.
If the report prints below expectation, the price could see some further decline below 0.74.
Anything within or above the expectation will see AUDUSD rally.
This will be a catalyst for near term price direction.
I will be looking to enter long position around 0.75 given the CPI q/q prints positive figure.
Date: 07/26/2016
Pair: AUDUSD
Price: 0.75
Trade: Buy Limit
Lot Size: 0.03
Stop Loss in Pips: 70
Take profit in pips: 270
Risk of Equity: 2%

My Trading Checklist

ARE THERE MAJOR RISK EVENTS TODAY/THIS WEEK: Yes
Is the market risk off or on? SP500, DAX, NIKKEI. Are the down or up: Risk On
Is this trade with the trend?: Reversal
Did I see it yesterday?: Yes
Is this a pullback measured by Fibs?: Yes
Am I buying support?: Yes
Am I selling resistance?: N/A
Is this entered during London’s session?: Not sure. Its a pending order
Did the price pulled back from 200MA on 15Min?: Yes
Are stochs extreme on multi charts?: Yes
Where is the price in terms of Pivots Points?: Support

I agree any positive numbers the aussie puts out will spark rallies, however the aussie has tendencies to drop like a stone whenever it wants so will be waiting for the next short entries.

I am long term bearish on aussie and will continue to be until fundamentals and the economy tells me. ( what we need is a solid government to start with )

I think figures will be green this time around.

I think that the price will reach 0.757595 level. After that, the price will go to the level of 0.744248 or further.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Im bearish in AUDUSD with SL at 7550 and TP 7190,
lets see tonight

Aussie GDP data tonight.

Forget COT, CPI, elections, GDP it's all fuzz, here is the real controller of the AUD:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...-higher-2016-7

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...-higher-2016-7

Look like aussie will go up from my best bet.. will see.. shortly

This pair seems bullish above 75 and bearish below. We'll see how the Aussie CPI figures shakes it up.

I currently have a small short open @ 75 and will add if price drops or reverse my trade if 75 stands up.

What kind of speculation do we have going on in here tonight? 29 minutes out.

I'm long and following the PA.