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AUD/USD

  • #98,041
  • Jul 21, 2016 1:53am Jul 21, 2016 1:53am
Will short from 75660
  • #98,042
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:24am Jul 21, 2016 9:24am
Here´s my view on the $audusd
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  • #98,043
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:43am Jul 22, 2016 3:43am
Quoting polonoon
After all these analysis anybody can covince me that when the employment rate went up from 5.7 to 5.8 and when the employment change went down to 7.9k less than expected , there are somebody bought the aud usd after these data ???????
i normally avoid A/U as plague but being funny overpriced currency I'm buying E/A. Any thoughts? Surely AU must go way down
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #98,044
  • Jul 22, 2016 1:49pm Jul 22, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting GqOrlando
Heres my view on the $audusd {image}
sorry,i cannot see it .because it is not obvious.maybe give mae some number ,it is better.
  • #98,045
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:20pm Jul 22, 2016 7:20pm
Trending down from 0.7676 top on a wave c yellow, part of 5th leg (5) of ending diagonal
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  • #98,046
  • Jul 24, 2016 1:28am Jul 24, 2016 1:28am
only my view, what you say guys ?

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  • #98,047
  • Jul 24, 2016 1:49am Jul 24, 2016 1:49am
Quoting keep4x
only my view, what you say guys ? {image}
It could be we have to wait for CPI data later this week and also fed policy.

COT are now net long by 15000 so if data is in favor of aussie I think it will be heading up for a while. https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/757024171855482881
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,048
  • Jul 24, 2016 4:07am Jul 24, 2016 4:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,049
  • Jul 24, 2016 9:08am Jul 24, 2016 9:08am
Bearish, the pair broke support at 0.7460.
  • #98,050
  • Jul 24, 2016 6:16pm Jul 24, 2016 6:16pm
Monthly forming inverted hammer. Weekly has completed bearish evening star on close. Daily has broken short term uptrend. 4 HR closed Friday below trend line, and below 200 MA of 74.79. PA on Friday could not maintain attempt to breach .75. I don't think we will regain .75 short term. I have dropped my limit on shorts today to 74.84. Have pending also at at 75.06 in unlikely event it regains that level. Weekly evening stars in past on this pair have been followed by significant drops. A lot of bear signs, and rate drop anticipated by banks and other lenders currently dropping rates on fixed term loans.
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  • #98,051
  • Jul 24, 2016 7:11pm Jul 24, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting wallstreetd
{image}
  • #98,052
  • Jul 24, 2016 11:00pm Jul 24, 2016 11:00pm
Quoting keep4x
only my view, what you say guys ? {image}
I totally agree with your view!
  • #98,053
  • Jul 24, 2016 11:27pm Jul 24, 2016 11:27pm
The hourly shows what seems to be a bit of an equilibrium level. Zoom out and you can see that it is basically the midpoint of a range and a visual representation of a market full of traders not willing to position themselves heavily one way or the other.

We've also thrown in the 15 minute chart as it is a little intra-day confluence of resistance to begin the week on. These short term channels seem to never break and hold. All about the re-activation level to carry on in the original direction after sucking people in.
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  • #98,054
  • Jul 24, 2016 11:57pm Jul 24, 2016 11:57pm
imo the AUD is still trending in the mid-70cents as it has been for nearly a year with a few extremes above and below.
in the past week the USD appeared to have been driving all major currency pairs in its direction. what happens from here will probably depend largely on the FOMC's rhetoric later this week. yield play. higher aussie interest rates vs US. should support the AUD, whilst any change to that may push it down.
AUD fundamentals otherwise seem not so convincing for movement in either way (well, if the "bad" economy was to drive the AUD, it should have brought it down a long time ago). the technicals meanwhile will just work as the usual S/R. may even see some ding-donging below and above the 4hr 200ma where it's hovering near atm.
  • #98,055
  • Jul 25, 2016 12:13am Jul 25, 2016 12:13am
Quoting ell3
imo the AUD is still trending in the mid-70cents as it has been for nearly a year with a few extremes above and below. in the past week the USD appeared to have been driving all major currency pairs in its direction. what happens from here will probably depend largely on the FOMC's rhetoric later this week. yield play. higher aussie interest rates vs US. should support the AUD, whilst any change to that may push it down. AUD fundamentals otherwise seem not so convincing for movement in either way (well, if the "bad" economy was to drive the AUD,...
Seems spot on.

I would say thought that the "bad" economy is seen by all except RBA and the government, they repeat their rhetoric - "its not growing as quick as expected, but it's growing". Meanwhile manufacturing is dead, farming is being sold off, retailers are closing regional branches, house prices unsustainable etc

The 'growth' they speak of is supported by the higher than excepted price of iron ore (and other commodities) this year, with miners already exceeding their 2016 forecast. If the price of ore had held at its January price this pair would be 0.60.

Put it this way they thought it would be $40 a ton at this time of year, and its sitting around $56.
  • #98,056
  • Edited 2:32am Jul 25, 2016 12:27am | Edited 2:32am
Lets see what happened in AU weekly chart,Bear take control with confirmation bearish engulfing(also evening star formation)
enjoy your trade
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  • #98,057
  • Jul 25, 2016 2:05am Jul 25, 2016 2:05am
Between 0.75 and 0.75178 would be a great place to short if price can get up there. Both weekly and monthly pivots, plus the psychological 75 level are in that zone.
  • #98,058
  • Jul 25, 2016 2:14am Jul 25, 2016 2:14am
Quoting Blackopal
Monthly forming inverted hammer. Weekly has completed bearish evening star on close. Daily has broken short term uptrend. 4 HR closed Friday below trend line, and below 200 MA of 74.79. PA on Friday could not maintain attempt to breach .75. I don't think we will regain .75 short term. I have dropped my limit on shorts today to 74.84. Have pending also at at 75.06 in unlikely event it regains that level. Weekly evening stars in past on this pair have been followed by significant drops. A lot of bear signs, and rate drop anticipated by banks and other...

Short 74.84 triggered
  • #98,059
  • Jul 25, 2016 4:13am Jul 25, 2016 4:13am
Predominantly a ranging market on AUDUSD imho.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98,060
  • Jul 25, 2016 4:15am Jul 25, 2016 4:15am
Quoting KeenPips
Predominantly a ranging market on AUDUSD imho. KP
That will probably continue until the FOMC statement on Wednesday.
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