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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,981
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:06pm Jul 22, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Somehow I show up two places in the table at position 5 and position 24. Correct username is earleone.
Got it ... was the Caps ... corrected for the next one. Well done btw. I hope you are riding some live too....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,982
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:20pm Jul 22, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Got it ... was the Caps ... corrected for the next one. Well done btw. I hope you are riding some live too.... sisse
Thank you . Learning a lot from you here and are grateful for your contributions to us. Running the trades live.

Have a nice weekend.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,983
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:55pm Jul 22, 2016 3:55pm
We are rolling rather neutral this week in the Euro but we are clearing all maps for next week FED.

No surprises given the context [for those following euro since last year conversation should be a no brainer] and as widely expected 1.097x confirmed in the short term map [one more time we have triple rain maker long, mid and short term] for the rest of the year. All maps crystal clear in the Euro.

More importantly DOLLAR closing in a fresh break up unlocking one more time 100.xx and beyond ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,984
  • Jul 22, 2016 5:05pm Jul 22, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting sisse
We are rolling rather neutral this week in the Euro but we are clearing all maps for next week FED. No surprises given the context [for those following euro since last year conversation should be a no brainer] and as widely expected 1.097x confirmed in the short term map [one more time we have triple rain maker long, mid and short term] for the rest of the year. All maps crystal clear in the Euro. More importantly DOLLAR closing in a fresh break up unlocking one more time 100.xx and beyond ... sisse
There was an ignorant trader known in this forum asking ignorant questions to sisse and trading recklessly and aimlessly. His handle is IMARICH1. If you want to learn what not to do and what to do read up this guys posts! He was lost and one day may be found! Here we go again, .097x close! I filled up boat at .1075 and still have my horrible position at .0845 when everything went backwards on me. Round 2! Great teaching this week sisse and glad your back!
  • #141,985
  • Jul 23, 2016 7:01am Jul 23, 2016 7:01am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Quoting gatorinla {quote} yep.. take the heaven and virgins out of jhid. and u take away the jhid motive. bury the terrorist parts found head down wrapped in a pigskin blanket. the west alias should make this s.o.p. in law through geneva. terrorist bodies should not be released back to family. the should go to pig soaked blood graveyards. je je je ...gator gator ...well every time the cowards hit, we all cannot help but think like that. Fcking cowards... The worst...
Im politely asking u to just stop. Just stop this here and leave. I dont care about any contradiction that u pointed out, ur post right doesnt contribute anything to trading but only like a child screaming moaning about ur own point of view
  • #141,986
  • Jul 23, 2016 7:37am Jul 23, 2016 7:37am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Quoting gatorinla {quote} yep.. take the heaven and virgins out of jhid. and u take away the jhid motive. bury the terrorist parts found head down wrapped in a pigskin blanket. the west alias should make this s.o.p. in law through geneva. terrorist bodies should not be released back to family. the should go to pig soaked blood graveyards. je je je ...gator gator ...well every time the cowards hit, we all cannot help but think like that. Fcking cowards... The worst...
just joining TuTang, your posts dont really contribute to trading (as the main topic here) or even to the political/socio stuff discused here. Instead of just pointing at others I encourage you to either present some rational complex argument on trading or politics related trading or it may be better to just give it up have a great weekend everyone!
  • #141,987
  • Jul 25, 2016 5:59am Jul 25, 2016 5:59am
A dull european summer session across the board with nothing in play until CBs decision later the week.

-> G20 and talking heads, in their own very soft version promising 'whatever it takes' to keep the global economy afloat. We are starting to see some minor cracks in the effectiveness of monetary policies (as its expected) and we are starting to slowly explore options in the fiscal front if things get nasty from Q3 onwards. Standby confirmed on the political front in Europe for the summer making risk fade for the summer.

-> On sharp contrast on the economic brexit front, major negative flows keep coming and very fast under the main headlines and more importantly [and alarming] away from the initial knee jerk reaction. First we had all property funds and now a major clean sweep of UK funds and Pension funds (this will have very long 'tail' and repercussion in the upcoming weeks).

Dominos keep falling. Real and conservative money pulling out very fast from the UK to avoid getting caught in a potential storm that is expected both in the economic and especially political front from Q3 and beyond.

--> Keeping a very very very close eye here as we get closer and closer of passing probably the last effective round of CB intervention in the next few week. Structural macro financials starting to look rather shady in the UK, with all eyes in Banks as contagion agent to Europe and the global economy.

Not much to see or do across the board with a double FED/BOJ combo as main dishes for the rest of the month.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,988
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:43am Jul 25, 2016 6:43am
Hi Sisse,

What is your assessment of the DAX lately?

It has risen nearly 1000 points since start of July (retracing the huge UK referendum down spike), seemingly on no strong fundamental drivers other than some mildly good German numbers (and speculation of cheap rates/free money for longer?)

DAX is now approaching upper range (10,3XX) for the 5th time in four months and I'm wondering if there are any fundamentals to sustain this particular rally, or is it simply ranging once again until a strong enough driver/comment/tweet shakes up the investors.

Cheers.
  • #141,989
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:21am Jul 25, 2016 7:21am
Quoting bullionman
Hi Sisse, What is your assessment of the DAX lately? It has risen nearly 1000 points since start of July (retracing the huge UK referendum down spike), seemingly on no strong fundamental drivers other than some mildly good German numbers (and speculation of cheap rates/free money for longer?) DAX is now approaching upper range (10,3XX) for the 5th time in four months and I'm wondering if there are any fundamentals to sustain this particular rally, or is it simply ranging once again until a strong enough driver/comment/tweet shakes up the investors....
--> Europe was slowly starting to pick up some pace on the macro front especially Germany before the UK vote (on top we had a triple ECB Bazooka plus further negative rates).

--> Since then we had a short-circuit in Europe via the UK in general and with initial impact on economic confidence and political uncertainty that automatically trigger the banking jitters one more time (Italian banks and all that...We have stress test results coming btw).

--> Macro numbers in Germany haven't been affected yet (obviously is only 4 weeks and neither is a reason to as the impact only would come from contagion and political disintegration via Brexit 2017 and beyond), however the political outlook and the short term impact in the UK economy will weight heavier in Europe.

--> Market are eyeballing Brexit political soap opera and instability (hopefully not) but Germany (and France) have very problematic elections next year with the raise of populism, nationalism and protection and the European market and union fracturing in crumbs on the background ...which as you can expect is a major deterrent for markets and the economy to grow.

--> On your more short term question. Knee jerk reaction after Brexit was done quickly as expected and hours after the results all CB's activated contingency plans (BOE) or flooded the market with money and cuts triggering the now usual 'ride the pig on free money, ask the questions later'.

Bastards have been doing this every single time since 2008 when they discover how easy is to pressure government and CBs to [over]react. It's basically a Pavlov reflex [for those who don't know] and by now we are all use to.

--> Also US numbers have held very strong and we have been printing good numbers from employment to earnings in the doldrums of the summer and risk fading short term. Rally it's/was a 'no brainer' since early July.

--> On DAX 1031x is the one I am aiming for this leg which is also the rain maker for the short term swing. A break above unlocks the highs of the year on low risk and US equites playing ball via FED. Failure to hold above unlock extend mid term chop zone for the next couple of Quarters until Brexit clears up or blow.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,990
  • Jul 25, 2016 8:22am Jul 25, 2016 8:22am
A very understandable and thorough explanation.

Thanks Sisse!
  • #141,991
  • Edited 2:41am Jul 26, 2016 2:24am | Edited 2:41am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post9043342
Quote
Yen to short-circuit short ... will only get more on the QE front. Meaning ZigZag in play (tradable btw) in UJ and especially GJ till the BOJ so watch out for soft hands getting wiped out (103.8x [check] and 136.0x [check] respectively) so:

--> Changing short term outlook in YEN from buy to neutral till the BOJ

...and I will take that in the Yen. Simple and easy ride for those who caught GJ/UJ from 141.xx and 106.5x (Thanks again to the moron that flagged that post).

Right on time before the BOJ/FED combo. Clearing final target in GJ on the test 136.0x and UJ manually a dozen ticks away from final target 103.8x (the handle is protected and is worthless to fight it for the BOJ so 'don't be a dick for tick rules apply').

Quoting sisse
...and I will take that in GU. Clearing fresh first short term target on GU on the test 1.327x. Nothing to be excited about so far with such a wild range in Sterling...well done all shorts from 1.34xx handle...
...I will take that in Sterling too. Clearing second soft target on the opening range after the test GU 1.305x (also protected for the FED) while we get Dollar side solved this week.

On the opening range:

--> Soft underlying numbers and flows keep coming in the UK this week GDP is the last official number pre Brexit. Lots of noise in the street is that the BOE is expecting a soft number [which IS/was NOT expected] meaning the economy was already weakening before the vote, forcing them to consider very aggressive actions in case this Quarter numbers confirm what it seem unavoidable in the short term.

--> On a side note, one of the untradables for this year (CHF) making some noise via the SNB. Swiss CB is starting to worry (as it always does) of a fresh capitulation leg in Sterling and sharp breakdown in Euro. GU and EURO losing 1.30xx and 1.097x for the summer as it will unlock SNB watch out mode. Things could get nasty and very fast for CHF and knowing the SNB ...they wont hesitate to pull the trigger.

Lots of movers and shakers in the currency board for the rest of the summer. Yen, Dollar and Sterling all in play this week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,992
  • Edited 3:34am Jul 27, 2016 2:58am | Edited 3:34am
--> Japan sinking without a trace with its Monetary and Fiscal Policy, unable to find a rational path to follow and revive an inert economy. I mentioned before but Japan is aligning to be the next big bad thing on global markets from 2017 and beyond and BOJ is screaming to get the 'traditional' worst CB award in the thread this year.

Politicians are too involve in the BOJ decisions and they are officially in 'soap opera' mode (very unusual for a country like Japan) and every second comment, they jump from one side to the other, and the range now extends from doing nothing to free money forever and everything else in between.


--> BOJ lost the plot and more importantly they just broke the most important rules for monetary policy effectiveness: strong, clear and decisive. (check FED first QE, ECB whatever it takes, SNB bands and lately BOE bazooka, etc x examples). From a market perceptive things are clear since they shoot themselves in the foot with expectations as everybody knows 'unlimited' QE with 'never-ending' bonds are on the table so anything else will be a 'flop' so ride the pig and ask in a few months for more while Japan economy stay comatose ....rinse and repeat until it blows....

Long post on Japan as its a major mover and shaker for this week and more importantly its implications run well beyond the current market circumstances. For those in the YEN zigzag played flawlessly in the first part but today's gossipy asian session triggered a sharp reaction on noise that is now fade away as the talking heads backpedal only a few hours later. In simple words, we are on track with same levels, same plays, same all for the BOJ this week.


--> Today main dish is obviously the FED but before we have a short stopover with UK numbers that could be more important that they should have been without Brexit. Eyes on GDP as it's the last picture of the economy before the vote. +/- inline or better are irrelevant but any undershoots (NOT EXPECTED) will send shockwaves across the board as it will trigger BOE major bazooka expectations for the upcoming weeks.

In trading terms, Sterling for a fresh break and Equities topping up for the summer (we need FED rates today to actually form a more solid top).


Lots of action this week starting today, both Equities (via rates and QE) and Currencies in play (via Yen, Dollar and Sterling).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,993
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:24am Jul 27, 2016 3:24am
...here we go for the numbers.

Only a short-circuit is tradable in direct flows via sterling specially for (obvious reasons) in GJ -> 135.xx to clean sweep soft hands one more time, OIL for a late and last ticket to 40.3x , FTSE for a choppy 6800.xx till FED roll the dice on Equities and the most difficult to crack but potentially the largest play if pans out in GU, to take the handle and current lows to trade deep in the 1.2xx.

Lets see otherwise session is over till NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,994
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:30am Jul 27, 2016 3:30am
Inline/ slightly better....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,995
  • Jul 27, 2016 4:23am Jul 27, 2016 4:23am
Quoting sisse
...here we go for the numbers. Only a short-circuit is tradable in direct flows via sterling specially for (obvious reasons) in GJ -> 135.xx to clean sweep soft hands one more time, OIL for a late and last ticket to 40.3x , FTSE for a choppy 6800.xx till FED roll the dice on Equities and the most difficult to crack but potentially the largest play if pans out in GU, to take the handle and current lows to trade deep in the 1.2xx. Lets see otherwise session is over till NY. sisse
I wouldnt be surprised if the FED decides to raise rates symbolically today (numbers are supporting that and it might be the only opportunity without affecting the elections till Nov) and if this happens, psychologically at least this act will provide a top for the market, causing the partial deflation of the bubble.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,996
  • Jul 27, 2016 6:21am Jul 27, 2016 6:21am
Just a thought! Even with strong US economic data, I don't think FOMC will rise the rate today. Actually, USD is strong and hiking will just strengthen it further, which is not good for US exports as well as not good for the world economy: Strong US versus Weak across the world. Unchanging FOMC policy will give some breathes/break to the rest of the world, at least, for short term and may absorb the uncertainty around the US election.
  • #141,997
  • Jul 27, 2016 6:25am Jul 27, 2016 6:25am
fuk....I like this thread....uhuyyy
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #141,998
  • Jul 27, 2016 7:28am Jul 27, 2016 7:28am
As expected since the UK numbers a very dull european summer session but wont last for much longer as we have FED/BOJ in play.

A moving opening range expected for NY until Europe goes home as we enter into the FED flows. Eyes on US equities taking the highs to 2185.x for the FED play and for those trading (or aiming to complete the leg) in OIL to 40.3x.

GOLD starting to look very heavy as we cleared risk form Europe early this week and now FED can trigger the rates play. 1320.xx is the rain maker for today as it unlock a very tradable swing to 1168.xx.

Europe officially on the back seat for the rest of the week. All eyes on US and the FED today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,999
  • Jul 27, 2016 7:31am Jul 27, 2016 7:31am
Flop ...status quo confirmed till the FED later today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,000
  • Jul 27, 2016 7:51am Jul 27, 2016 7:51am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I wouldnt be surprised if the FED decides to raise rates symbolically today (numbers are supporting that and it might be the only opportunity without affecting the elections till Nov) and if this happens, psychologically at least this act will provide a top for the market, causing the partial deflation of the bubble.
I am not sure if you are reading this right. First I don't think a hike is in play for today (odds are near zero to none) under most, if not all, scenarios.

--> Markets have a very strong hand now over CBs. Macro fundamentals are diverging (and importantly) from financial markets. CBs are flooding the markets short term with liquidity so like always you ride the pig short term and ask the question later.

As long as CBs are flooding the markets with liquidity and free money, markets will 'ignore' all negative news until the trend exhaust itself and all the announcements are cleared hijacking and limiting the FED policy scope.

--> If the FED pulls the trigger with rates, bastards are threatening to trigger a major correction and raise the bid and move to ignore all good news and just sell on risk and global jitters. If it doesnt, we keep the status quo. The longer we stay the current diverging circumstances, the worst for the FED and the US economy in terms of monetary policy but the better and more $$$ big hands will squeeze on a rally made on air.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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