Today could catch +6 on dax and +1 on dow. I am happy.
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
Hello Traders, Hope everyone is doing ok! I just wanted to day hello and see how you all are getting along? I will be in and out over the next few weeks. The markets have been really generous these last couple of months. I had to step away from the thread as you all know, I am very busy with trading and business ventures and every now and then things slow down and I always find my way back home. Keep up the posting and making this incredible system your own! Talk to you all soon.
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- #20,183
- Jul 19, 2016 1:48pm Jul 19, 2016 1:48pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} After initially going in my direction . PA pull backed and stopped me for - 1 pip. Tried to hold on as long as possible cause I still believe it will test the upper limits again but I didn't want to turn a profit into a loss. {image}
Update:
Uhmmmm. I re - entered. Didn't post it. wasn't sure if it was another revenge trade or confidence. I didn't like that I had to re enter at a more expensive price. But I was about to take +19 (-1 + 20 = +19) . Maybe I just managed it badly.
Its late in the day so I wont participate anymore but I am expecting price to reverse and the upper level to be respected.
- #20,184
- Jul 20, 2016 7:45am Jul 20, 2016 7:45am
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
YM = -8, +10, +11, -8, +5, -5, -13, -2, +2 = -8
ES = +.5, +.25, -1, +3.00 = +2.75
Debated posting these as the YM chart is hard to follow. The bars have updated so now the trade markers are off and some triggers are not showing up the way they were when I initially saw the PA.
This range has had me going for smaller targets but looks like I am still plagued with poor trade management. If i had kept my hands off a few of these instead of closing out early I would have been in a much better position.
I'm still trying to figure out how to best manage these bounce plays once I am in the trade. I'm trying to figure out if it's best to keep the initial stop until the position has gone in my favor a bit, or if it's better to move the stop to just under the newly created swing low once a reversal bar prints.
Also weighing whether or not these are even worth to continue doing. The r:r can be amazing but I am making a lot more trades than I usually do and I am having a lot more losers, so my accuracy is definitely taking a hit.
That said, I've spent the majority of the past few trading days negative for the most part and am able to bring it back so that is reassuring.
ES = +.5, +.25, -1, +3.00 = +2.75
Debated posting these as the YM chart is hard to follow. The bars have updated so now the trade markers are off and some triggers are not showing up the way they were when I initially saw the PA.
This range has had me going for smaller targets but looks like I am still plagued with poor trade management. If i had kept my hands off a few of these instead of closing out early I would have been in a much better position.
I'm still trying to figure out how to best manage these bounce plays once I am in the trade. I'm trying to figure out if it's best to keep the initial stop until the position has gone in my favor a bit, or if it's better to move the stop to just under the newly created swing low once a reversal bar prints.
Also weighing whether or not these are even worth to continue doing. The r:r can be amazing but I am making a lot more trades than I usually do and I am having a lot more losers, so my accuracy is definitely taking a hit.
That said, I've spent the majority of the past few trading days negative for the most part and am able to bring it back so that is reassuring.
- #20,187
- Edited 12:33pm Jul 20, 2016 12:00pm | Edited 12:33pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
- #20,191
- Jul 20, 2016 2:25pm Jul 20, 2016 2:25pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
YM = -10, +2, +11 = +3
ES = +4.25
I'm really starting to dislike this PA over the past week. The afternoons are almost worthless I'm thinking.
Wanted to hold YM for lower target but I grew impatient with the trade and decided to take profits before the market took them for me.
Also wanted to hold ES til we tested 68 but I bailed before #'s.
ES = +4.25
I'm really starting to dislike this PA over the past week. The afternoons are almost worthless I'm thinking.
Wanted to hold YM for lower target but I grew impatient with the trade and decided to take profits before the market took them for me.
Also wanted to hold ES til we tested 68 but I bailed before #'s.
- #20,192
- Jul 20, 2016 2:44pm Jul 20, 2016 2:44pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{quote} I've actually been thinking about cutting back on my posts here as tbh I'm not really sure they are benefiting anyone but myself haha. I feel ya. one of the reasons I post is to keep my ego in check. If I'm reluctant to post a trade then I'm thinking I probable doing something I shouldn't. some times it works sometimes it doesn't. I go tilt sometimes off just one trade so its nice to full back and logically justify my trade to somebody else. Its to easy to lie to yourself. But it doesn't seem like that in your case. Atta boy man! Solid on...
Regarding your question:
There are a couple ways you can do it. If you are following Damian's instructions then your initial stop shouldn't have been touched until just bout where you exited on your second trade. Me personally, I have a hard time sticking to that. Maybe I would be better off trying to keep to that way, something to look over my prior trades to see if it'd be more beneficial.
But if I was in that trade then really I would like to see price come up and close above the blue line that I added. From there, it will either keep going, or it will pull back. Whether that pullback bounces at some point or comes back to create a NSL is something to watch for.
For this example's sake, once it failed to close above that blue line then I would think maybe price is not going to make a NSH and it might be time to remove some risk. From there if you still felt like maybe price had a chance then you could move to just below the swing low at the red line. If you preferred to get something for your efforts or keep the potential loss even smaller then you could move to b/e or small gain.
Do I think you were wrong in doing it the way you did? No. You kept the loss small which was more than made up for on your next trade.
- #20,194
- Jul 20, 2016 5:37pm Jul 20, 2016 5:37pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
Yeah so it's like you are saying 'Ok I want to take this trade and I want price to show me that it has the strength to hit my target.' And you'd use the short term order flow to help you accomplish that.
In this example you see on the short term that price is making nsl's and a lh, so essentially short term is in a bear trend. But you notice that it's coming into the 618 right after the longer term flow just made a NSH (short term is in lowercase, long term is in uppercase).
So even though the short term has bearish order flow, if you want to try and take advantage of the long term pattern by using the short term order flow as a gauge then you'd simply have the mentality that 'OK, I'm going to take this trade out of the 618 (1st circle) and against the short term order flow but I am going to be looking for price to show me that it is ready to resume the uptrend. So I am going to be looking for price to close above the most recent lh.' Which it does and now tells you that the short term is ready to realign with the long term. From then on you would treat it just as Damian has taught us. It made a weak nsh so you can go ahead and expect a pullback of sorts, and after that pullback you now have a great spot to move your stop. Sometimes the pullback doesn't happen, in which case great - you're already in for the ride with excellent trade location. Sometimes the price pulls back and makes another nsl on the short term and takes you out. Nature of the beast lol.
Picture instead that price did not make the nsh on the short term (like the trade example that you posted), you go back to your logic for entering the trade to begin with - "OK I entered this trade with the expectation that price would show me it was ready to resume the up move. That did not happen, so now I re-evaluate.' And at this time you could either:
1. Leave your stop where it is
2. Move it to b/e or b/e1 to capture something
3. Scratch the trade and take w/e profit you have
4. Move stop above / below a swing point or structure zone and ride it out
5. Something that I have not thought of lol
Entering against the short term order flow is what I'd consider a more aggressive trade. If you wanted to be a little more conservative while still taking advantage of the short term then you could just go ahead and wait for the pullback after price proves to you that it's ready to resume the overall trend (2nd circle). While you give up trade location and a little r:r, this is a higher odds and less stressful entry imo. Price made the nsh so now you're just waiting for the pb. You outlined your structure and price came with a nice rotation bar off the zone.
Does this make sense?
I will say that there are times when trying to do this makes reading PA exponentially more difficult. It's not always as clear cut as this and I'm basically cherry-picking an A+ example for educational purposes.
In this example you see on the short term that price is making nsl's and a lh, so essentially short term is in a bear trend. But you notice that it's coming into the 618 right after the longer term flow just made a NSH (short term is in lowercase, long term is in uppercase).
So even though the short term has bearish order flow, if you want to try and take advantage of the long term pattern by using the short term order flow as a gauge then you'd simply have the mentality that 'OK, I'm going to take this trade out of the 618 (1st circle) and against the short term order flow but I am going to be looking for price to show me that it is ready to resume the uptrend. So I am going to be looking for price to close above the most recent lh.' Which it does and now tells you that the short term is ready to realign with the long term. From then on you would treat it just as Damian has taught us. It made a weak nsh so you can go ahead and expect a pullback of sorts, and after that pullback you now have a great spot to move your stop. Sometimes the pullback doesn't happen, in which case great - you're already in for the ride with excellent trade location. Sometimes the price pulls back and makes another nsl on the short term and takes you out. Nature of the beast lol.
Picture instead that price did not make the nsh on the short term (like the trade example that you posted), you go back to your logic for entering the trade to begin with - "OK I entered this trade with the expectation that price would show me it was ready to resume the up move. That did not happen, so now I re-evaluate.' And at this time you could either:
1. Leave your stop where it is
2. Move it to b/e or b/e1 to capture something
3. Scratch the trade and take w/e profit you have
4. Move stop above / below a swing point or structure zone and ride it out
5. Something that I have not thought of lol
Entering against the short term order flow is what I'd consider a more aggressive trade. If you wanted to be a little more conservative while still taking advantage of the short term then you could just go ahead and wait for the pullback after price proves to you that it's ready to resume the overall trend (2nd circle). While you give up trade location and a little r:r, this is a higher odds and less stressful entry imo. Price made the nsh so now you're just waiting for the pb. You outlined your structure and price came with a nice rotation bar off the zone.
Does this make sense?
I will say that there are times when trying to do this makes reading PA exponentially more difficult. It's not always as clear cut as this and I'm basically cherry-picking an A+ example for educational purposes.
- #20,195
- Jul 20, 2016 9:36pm Jul 20, 2016 9:36pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Yeah so it's like you are saying 'Ok I want to take this trade and I want price to show me that it has the strength to hit my target.' And you'd use the short term order flow to help you accomplish that. {image} In this example you see on the short term that price is making nsl's and a lh, so essentially short term is in a bear trend. But you notice that it's coming into the 618 right after the longer term flow just made a NSH (short term is in lowercase, long term is in uppercase). So even though the short term has bearish order flow, if you want...
. I need to reestablish that sort of logical thinking. Thank you for walking me through it. I'll try to post my thought patterns tomorrow in step by step logic. I guess its my turn to junk up, I mean, contribute to the thread. HAHAHA!
I know it takes time to put together quality post like that so it is greatly appreciated.
- #20,196
- Edited 4:18am Jul 21, 2016 2:15am | Edited 4:18am
- | Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,719 Posts
- #20,197
- Jul 21, 2016 11:07am Jul 21, 2016 11:07am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Good morning everyone
US30 - 89T
So what do we got. Price capped out yesterday and overnight pushed back in the consolidation range. Bears struggled (choppy) to take out some of the stronger Support and Supply levels but then did a free fall. The next supply level has been tested so probably isn't that strong. 
US30 - 89T
So what do we got. Price capped out yesterday and overnight pushed back in the consolidation range. Bears struggled (choppy) to take out some of the stronger Support and Supply levels but then did a free fall. The next supply level has been tested so probably isn't that strong.
- L/T - NSL
- Bears looking strong
What I'm expecting.... I'm expecting a shallow retracement to previous lows and the 38.6 level of the move. before trying to push down again. Currently, I'm only looking for shorts
- #20,198
- Jul 21, 2016 11:26am Jul 21, 2016 11:26am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Good morning everyone US30 - 89T So what do we got. Price capped out yesterday and overnight pushed back in the consolidation range. Bears struggled (choppy) to take out some of the stronger Support and Supply levels but then did a free fall. The next supply level has been tested so probably isn't that strong. L/T - NSL Bears looking strong What I'm expecting.... I'm expecting a shallow retracement to previous lows and the 38.6 level of the move. before trying to push down again. Currently, I'm only looking for shorts {image}
I am expecting a bigger PB on the completion of the 3 drives. But Bears still look strong so I'm still looking for shorts
