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NZD/USD

  • #11,901
  • Jul 16, 2016 7:36am Jul 16, 2016 7:36am
#NZDUSD So far looking good trailing my stop just in case I'm wrong i have some pips locked in..... Kudos to those that are short
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #11,902
  • Jul 17, 2016 5:19am Jul 17, 2016 5:19am
Out of this for now.
  • #11,903
  • Jul 17, 2016 6:41pm Jul 17, 2016 6:41pm
down over 70 pips on miss of CPI from .5% to .4%.

A miss is a miss but the reality is a sustained .4% would produce inflation close to 5% per year. Not going to trade this pair as fundamentals and technicals are at odds. There will be some wild moves next few months, I don't like to trade wild moves
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #11,904
  • Jul 17, 2016 8:14pm Jul 17, 2016 8:14pm
Quoting newbegger
down over 70 pips on miss of CPI from .5% to .4%. A miss is a miss but the reality is a sustained .4% would produce inflation close to 5% per year. Not going to trade this pair as fundamentals and technicals are at odds. There will be some wild moves next few months, I don't like to trade wild moves
Oh, bother. That's not a month to month but a quarter to quarter. So even sustained .4% won't get them to 2% per year. 70 pip drop makes sense.

Still, I am sidelined after getting stopped out on longs. Waiting to exhale when the Fedspeak resumes, not sure if they will raise into Brexit, coup d'état attempt in Turkey, China devaluing yuan, elections in November, yikes.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #11,905
  • Jul 17, 2016 8:25pm Jul 17, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Oh, bother. That's not a month to month but a quarter to quarter. So even sustained .4% won't get them to 2% per year. 70 pip drop makes sense. Still, I am sidelined after getting stopped out on longs. Waiting to exhale when the Fedspeak resumes, not sure if they will raise into Brexit, coup d'tat attempt in Turkey, China devaluing yuan, elections in November, yikes.
Sometimes can just be bots trading the news. I think it will have a bounce up later today.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #11,906
  • Jul 17, 2016 10:33pm Jul 17, 2016 10:33pm
The NZDUSD drops again and it may try to reach the 0.7000 level, which could act as a good support.
  • #11,907
  • Jul 17, 2016 11:14pm Jul 17, 2016 11:14pm
Quoting newbegger
down over 70 pips on miss of CPI from .5% to .4%. A miss is a miss but the reality is a sustained .4% would produce inflation close to 5% per year.
Sellers have paused at this support level. Not sure if you should be too keen to catch this falling knife here though. There feels like a lot of momentum behind last week's Kiwi selling.
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  • #11,908
  • Jul 18, 2016 1:04am Jul 18, 2016 1:04am
Quoting Vantage FX
{quote} Sellers have paused at this support level. Not sure if you should be too keen to catch this falling knife here though. There feels like a lot of momentum behind last week's Kiwi selling. {image}
I think it will head up to around .71800 levels possibly back up to 4h trend around .72300 to .72600. There will be a resistance at around .71400 so watch this price.

Will be waiting for short entries at these levels.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #11,909
  • Jul 18, 2016 1:46am Jul 18, 2016 1:46am
My shorts got stopped out this morning on my trailing SL just before today's drop. Still closed with small profit, but disappointed I missed today's dip. On sidelines again dammit.
  • #11,910
  • Jul 18, 2016 2:03am Jul 18, 2016 2:03am
Quoting Blackopal
My shorts got stopped out this morning on my trailing SL just before today's drop. Still closed with small profit, but disappointed I missed today's dip. On sidelines again dammit.
Im missed out also, slept in haha. so yeah im on sidelines too, just waiting for a right short entry. Not 100% how high it will go?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #11,911
  • Jul 18, 2016 4:54am Jul 18, 2016 4:54am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Looks almost look the perfect sell setup, will be watching 0,7607 next week. If you look at the monthly, you have a double top. Quartely also looks down, talking about AU here. Weekly also an inverted hammer. So for me, all timeframes align now. All this coupled with dollar strength after all the positive data the US is printing lately. Maybe NU is ready for an even bigger drop since AN is ripping higher.
0,7607 could be enough for the drop, could possibly be the weekly high
  • #11,912
  • Jul 18, 2016 6:54am Jul 18, 2016 6:54am
#NZDUSD kiwi could retrace now but if my calculation are correct it should be short lived..... I'm still holding on to my shorts trailing my stops. it has found a short term support @ the gann grid angle.... but I see more selling in the future.
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #11,913
  • Jul 18, 2016 6:20pm Jul 18, 2016 6:20pm
Any talk from RBNZ causes substantial losses to the NZD. Traders are pounding NZD down with rates cut speculation.

If they don't come out on July 21 with strong language that suggests rate cuts, there will be some fireworks in NZD pairs. Going to be a very interesting Asia session Thursday. I'll keep a chart open with alerts on as I don't normally watch Asia session.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #11,914
  • Jul 18, 2016 9:50pm Jul 18, 2016 9:50pm
Quoting newbegger
Any talk from RBNZ causes substantial losses to the NZD. Traders are pounding NZD down with rates cut speculation. If they don't come out on July 21 with strong language that suggests rate cuts, there will be some fireworks in NZD pairs. Going to be a very interesting Asia session Thursday. I'll keep a chart open with alerts on as I don't normally watch Asia session.
Heard the news from Bloomberg news RBNZ just request for all the new investment property needs to hold 40% deposit!!! sound to me they are prepare to lower the interest rate. So keep short NZD.
  • #11,915
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:32pm Jul 18, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting jimmyqiao
{quote} Heard the news from Bloomberg news RBNZ just request for all the new investment property needs to hold 40% deposit!!! sound to me they are prepare to lower the interest rate. So keep short NZD.
Yep, the RBNZ setting up for a rate cut here. Curb investment property demand by making them unattainable to a huge chunk of the market.

NZD/USD obviously agrees and that support level in our last post in this thread got a short term bounce, but selling momentum soon saw it crumble.

Next we have the RBNZ's 'extra update' on the economy this Thursday. What are they going to say?
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  • #11,916
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:48am Jul 19, 2016 6:48am
#NZDUSD short worked out well getting close to target.....
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #11,917
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:27pm Jul 20, 2016 5:27pm
The BoJ must be gnashing their teeth, green with envy that RBNZ can so easily weaken the currency, lol. This downleg should continue up to the meeting on August 11 where they most likely cut rates, but this big move needs to retrace a bit. In 2 days, the NZD has dropped as much as all of last week. Final Destination around .6700 before meeting
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #11,918
  • Jul 20, 2016 11:48pm Jul 20, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting newbegger
The BoJ must be gnashing their teeth, green with envy that RBNZ can so easily weaken the currency, lol. This downleg should continue up to the meeting on August 11 where they most likely cut rates, but this big move needs to retrace a bit. In 2 days, the NZD has dropped as much as all of last week. Final Destination around .6700 before meeting
Love how clean the technical moves in this pair are. The major SR zones are being respected and we're then seeing plenty of healthy pullbacks into previous support which then acts as resistance as price moves between them.
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  • #11,919
  • Jul 21, 2016 6:48am Jul 21, 2016 6:48am
[quote=Squiggles;9008945]looks like the next pump and dump is setting up on NZD //
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  • #11,920
  • Jul 21, 2016 6:51am Jul 21, 2016 6:51am
#NZDUSD looking in profit Target hit..... was short @ 0.7293 / Target was 0.6992 / Closed my longs @ 0.6958..... if it continues lower I might jump back in again...
but it could retrace now.... Kudos to the shorts
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
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