My Weekly Decision Bar Trading Direction Journal

I don't have a lot of time to put into a journal, but I thought that if I am sitting and analyzing charts, I might as well make notes of what I am doing, in hopes that I will continue to grow into a better trader. The overall concept here is to evaluate the previous weeks weekly bar and use it to determine a trading direction for the next week. Then, wait for good set-ups in the direction it was decided "best" to trade in.

I will start with the EurUsd. Based on last weeks weekly close, I am looking to make short trades on the pair only. I am thinking that around 1.1075 might be a good place to start looking for short set-ups. I will be looking for good candlestick formations/chart formations/consolidation breakout formations in the direction that I am looking to trade.

I was able to make some nice pips short on Friday and only wish that I was still in the trade. This approach with this journal will hopefully help in my decisions like that when it comes to when to stay in a trade when it is moving in my favor. And, help me stay out of trades that might be good set-ups, but against a stronger direction where I should not be trading. We'll see. I should have more pair ideas to come using this method and ideas.

Here is what my EurUsd work space looks like:

GbpUsd Direction, work space and trading outlook:

I am seeing that the weekly closed strong bullish with an inverse h&s formed on the daily. If I get the opportunity to I may take a chance to take small amount trade at the open on Sunday, but otherwise the move would be to wait for a break of the neck line to go long. Unless something else gave some other nice bullish signal. Stocks are also showing bullish divergence on the 4h to boot!

EurJpy: I have definite bullish sentiment from the weekly candle with a 1hr bullish divergence from the stochs. I will be seeing if I can catch opportunities to go long this week or until sentiment changes to a short one.

UsdCad: Weeky sentiment here is definitely bullish. We ended the week with a nice bullish daily bar and a double bottom on the 4hr with a huge move up with a pull back which is looking rip for an entry. Weekly is showing a consolidation pattern for a long entry at 1.3190 for a TP move of at least 550 pips or so. Going to have to get an order in place for that one. But would be great to get in down where it is and maybe just see it go straight up from here.

Maybe it will open a tad lower and if so, I will be looking to buy immediately! and hold for a very very long time! Or, until my s/l is hit.. but I think it is raring to go higher!

UscChf: I will be looking for long trades this week based on the weekly closed on this pair for the week. There is showing a nice flag formation on the 1hr and 30 m bar that should be good for a goo 40-50 pips once it breaks to begin with as a first trade looking long opportunity for the week. From there, we will have to see what happens. Based on the 4h close, I would expect to see a little lower movement first, but once again. I am not trying to pick a bottom. I am looking for the prime opportunity to go long. Not taking a bunch of losses by trying to guess where the bottom might be. However... taking a long at the lower part of that flag pattern might be nice for a minimal s/ risk. Possible TP on the flag would be up at the diagonal t/l I have drawn on the 4hr. I want to keep in mind that this could be a strong weekly bullish bar based on this last weeks close. So, I will be looking for other long entries and reasons to stay into a long trade.

NzdUsd: Based on weekly close I am going to be looking short. Daily flag has broken. It would be great to see a pull back to .7200, the last area of consolidation. That would be a great place to short from. Not sure it will get there. Lets see what the charts are willing to give us. Perhaps at least a pullback to the break point.

AudUsd: I am looking to trade short this week based on the weekly close. There was h&s and flag breaks all through Fridays trading going south. I think having this journal will really help me slow down and stay more focused and organized. I am hoping for a pull-back up to the break line around .7600-.7625 where I will be looking for something good to short. I will not be shorting just because we get there. Based on some lines I am drawing, I am seeing that there may be a lot of upside left in this pair after this falls a bit lower.

UsdJpy: Looking for long trades based on the weekly close this week. I am thinking that we may see a short rise and then I would like to see a fall down to around or as far as 103.00 maybe even a weekly close down that low. Who knows before thinking about taking any longs at this moment. Maybe the charts will tell me something different in a few days.

GbpJpy: Definitely looking for long opportunities this week based on the weekly close. I would love to see another 100+ pip drop from Friday's close as an excellent place to start looking for a long trading opportunity.

EurCad: Looks like a fantastic opportunity that I am playing long. I am seeing a bullish h&s on the weekly. We are also at the bottom of a wedge formation on the weekly. I also see a bullish h&s on the 1hr. I think the play might be to take the long on the break of the neckline of the 1hr h&s and see if this may be the run up that will also break the neckline of the weekly bullish h&s I called this a couple weeks ago but first saw some additional down movement. It is possible that the down movement is at the bottom. This still could go lower so I am not going to go long until that h&s on the 1hr breaks and that will give me a reasonable s/l to work with.

We will see what happens this could be kind of exciting and once it breaks the weekly neckline we should be looking for at least 750 pips in addition to if we are able to get in and hold before the break of the neckline. I wonder how it will play out?

GbpChf: Definitely looking bullish here. There is a daily h&s that has formed with a nice bullish consolidation breakout pattern on the daily as well. The 1 hr shows a nice entry around 1.3000 long with a reasonable s/l. And, if I got lucky, that trade would then break through the weekly h&s, which if it did should be good for a minimum of 700 pips plus whatever we were to get off of the early entry. This is a heck of a lot like a EurCad trade plan I evaluated a post or two back.

EurNzd: Very nice and powerful bullish sister bar pattern on the weekly chart. studying everything else, I am seeing a slight push higher with a rejection to what I would like to be down to 1.5320 - 1.5275 where it will be time to start looking for the long entry based on those sister bars. This could be a nice bullish move for over 1300 pips with a good entry. Lets see what happens. It would not at all be a bad entry to go in right at the open, however, that means the s/l would be over 400 pips. better to get that down to around 175 - 250 if we get our move lower. I think that it is going to happen, so I am going to wait!

That is all for my Sunday chart evaluations. I don't see anything else worth trading besides what I have posted so i will only look at taking positions on these pairs in the directions I have posted, when I get the proper set-ups. I will catch up with everyone a bit later. I am going to do some yard work before some company comes over for a cook out. If anyone reading this has any questions, please feel free to ask them and I will answer you. Bye for now!

It is a new week!

I did well following my trading plan last week. I got back about 15% of my losses and then got stupid on Friday and lost some of it. So far, on my way to gaining back my losses, following a weekly trading approach, I am doing very well, but have more work to do this week.

Time to see what is happening with the charts!

AudJpy: Bullish based on weekly candle close though the daily chart did show a break beneath a triangle formation. I expect that the earlier moves in the week to be short. Maybe the weekly candle will even close bearish. I think the bearish move will end around 76.00 or so. So, there is plenty of room for me to go short but it is against my weekly bullish sentiment. It will have to be a very good short set-up for me to take it, and that daily doji shows indecision. Remember that I am mainly looking to take trades with the weekly trend, but if see a good short set-up, because I think there is a few hundred pips on a retrace, I will consider taking it.

AudUsd: Weekly candlestick sentiment is short.

CadJpy: This pair look a lot like AudJpy does. My weekly sentiment is bullish, but it appears that there will be some selling first before the smart buyers will really jump back into the market.

EurAud: Bullish sentiment with morning star formation on the weekly chart, which to me screams long at the market open with about a 250 pip s/l. Maybe we will fall a little bit and get a lower entry. I will be looking for that!

EurCad: I am watching the bullish h&s on the weekly chart. there was also a bearish candlestick close on the daily so we should see some goo opportunities to short down to the bottom of the triangle. where it might be a good place to go long and just hold, as this thing looks to me like it will be busting out long soon in a very big move.

EurJpy: Looking like the other yen pairs with a bullish sentiment but with some downward moves to go before the big up moves will come back in.

EurNzd: Bullish on this pair after the formation of the sister bars on the weekly chart last week, but I missed the opp to enter. Looks like there was a lower channel break out so hopefully we will see some lower lows here for a good place to enter on those sister bars, as that move could go a long ways once it takes shape.