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AUD/USD

  • #97,941
  • Jul 13, 2016 7:42pm Jul 13, 2016 7:42pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} The bullish movement you saw was a correction within the longer time frame my friend. Start on the weekly and monthly time frames, where the trend has been down for a while. If you use Elliot waves, you will notice the 4-hour has been down for a little while, and its moving nicely into a possible Wave 3. {image}
I see in a different post you have been short since May and I too am short but am curious about your take on weekly and monthly 'where the trend has been down for a while'. I see a higher low on monthly, both a higher high and higher low on weekly so think your statement too firm for those conditions.

Daily looks to be ranging and 4hr looks to have made a lower high so we should get a retest of the 7577 area (and hopefully a break). I don't use Elliot waves but RSI on weekly, daily, 4hr all suggests more room for downward movement than up.
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Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,942
  • Edited 8:18pm Jul 13, 2016 8:03pm | Edited 8:18pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I see in a different post you have been short since May and I too am short but am curious about your take on weekly and monthly 'where the trend has been down for a while'. I see a higher low on monthly, both a higher high and higher low on weekly so think your statement too firm for those conditions. Daily looks to be ranging and 4hr looks to have made a lower high so we should get a retest of the 7577 area (and hopefully a break). I don't use Elliot waves but RSI on weekly, daily, 4hr all suggests more room for downward movement than up....
The higher high and higher low in my opinion is because of upward momentum during a corrective movement, and also because of market uncertainty. That doesn't mean the trend will be reversing, although its always a possibility. Also, I'm just giving my opinion I cant prove 100% that the trend will not stay corrective a little longer. But I recommend you look into Elliot Waves my friend, it is the most powerful and revealing market indicator in my opinion. You don't have to use any other indicator and you can be successful just trading Waves. But i use a host of other indicators, including moving averages, bollinger bands, and Parabolic SAR and Hieken Ashi.
  • #97,943
  • Edited 8:23pm Jul 13, 2016 8:10pm | Edited 8:23pm
Basically, the monthly and weekly may still be correcting upward slightly, but my opinion is that this corrective movement is about to end if it hasn't already. When you said you think my statements are too firm you may be right, I'm just giving my opinion lol. The daily chart will take longer to form a clear pattern, so in this case I would look to the 1 hour and 4 hour charts for a clearer signal of the continuation of the downtrend. I agree with you, I just try to keep a broad perspective in mind, and more than anything I use elliot waves as they are so powerful you can simply open your charts and know within a few seconds where the trend is. RSI is a good indicator but I dont use it much. Its not as reliable as elliot waves. In case I didnt fully answer your question, my take on the monthly and weekly is that the corrective movement on both time frames is about to be exhausted, but it always takes longer for that to happen on the longer time frames. I'm firm in my belief and experience that the downtrend is continuing as we speak. Even if the fundamentals pull it back a little, it will only be momentarily. Cheers to you my friend!
  • #97,944
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:33pm Jul 13, 2016 8:33pm
I pray the speculators burn in the lowest level of hell...

Data is bad but audusd is spiking high like mad...
  • #97,945
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:36pm Jul 13, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting QuPuteh
I pray the speculators burn in the lowest level of hell... Data is bad but audusd is spiking high like mad...
Hahahahaha! Its human sentiment that's to be expected. The numbers were within reasonable range so thats why there was a spike. Wait a little while.....wait for it. Just like everyone long on the pound.....wait for it LOL
  • #97,946
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:41pm Jul 13, 2016 8:41pm
Look at this stochastics indicator at the bottom of the image. It shows a bearish divergence on the daily chart while the price continues to go up. This is a powerful indicator that PA is subject to reversing quickly, and when you see this on the daily time frame it is exceptionally powerful. Im telling you just wait it out, people are so predictable......the market itself is a living, breathing, organic entity based on human sentiment. As such, it can easily be predicted both fundamentally and technically. Just wait it out my friend :-)
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  • #97,947
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:42pm Jul 13, 2016 8:42pm
Love u much!
  • #97,948
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:43pm Jul 13, 2016 8:43pm
Employment data no nothing, the 30 pips down the last 6 hrs was pricing in bad figures that didn't come. USD weakness continues, risk assets like AUD is safe in current conditions and returned to it's 0.763. This seems to be the limit though pending some fundamentals to push it higher.

AUD is gonna need rates cuts to get it back to 0.70 and some help from a reduction in iron ore price.

The only reason AUD is high is iron ore. Some miners are now exceeding their expected yearly output and we're only 7 months in (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...utput-guidance)

If you look at my previous post you can see the correlation between AUD and price of ore. The Chinese have some garden event at the end of this month in their steel producing province so they are upping production these past few weeks to account for the outage, this pushed ore futures higher therefore ore price (although their correlation is weak). Expect correction in August, for now sit on this level. This is similar to what happened in May.
  • #97,949
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:45pm Jul 13, 2016 8:45pm
I see some solid readings friends, 38K full time employment has been added to the economy!
There's no harm in being smtm wrong especially if one is promptly found out
  • #97,950
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:46pm Jul 13, 2016 8:46pm
Quoting redalert
Employment data no nothing, the 30 pips down the last 6 hrs was pricing in bad figures that didn't come. USD weakness continues, risk assets like AUD is safe in current conditions and returned to it's 0.763. This seems to be the limit though pending some fundamentals to push it higher. AUD is gonna need rates cuts to get it back to 0.70 and some help from a reduction in iron ore price. The only reason AUD is high is iron ore. Some miners are now exceeding their expected yearly output and we're only 7 months in (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...utput-guidance)...
Nice analysis!
  • #97,951
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:50pm Jul 13, 2016 8:50pm
Quoting redalert
Employment data no nothing, the 30 pips down the last 6 hrs was pricing in bad figures that didn't come. USD weakness continues, risk assets like AUD is safe in current conditions and returned to it's 0.763. This seems to be the limit though pending some fundamentals to push it higher. AUD is gonna need rates cuts to get it back to 0.70 and some help from a reduction in iron ore price. The only reason AUD is high is iron ore. Some miners are now exceeding their expected yearly output and we're only 7 months in (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...utput-guidance)...
I agree with you about the AUD being high because of iron ore. Its a commodity currency so its dependent on commodity prices, especially iron ore!
  • #97,952
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:11pm Jul 13, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting redalert
Employment data no nothing, the 30 pips down the last 6 hrs was pricing in bad figures that didn't come. USD weakness continues, risk assets like AUD is safe in current conditions and returned to it's 0.763. This seems to be the limit though pending some fundamentals to push it higher. AUD is gonna need rates cuts to get it back to 0.70 and some help from a reduction in iron ore price. The only reason AUD is high is iron ore. Some miners are now exceeding their expected yearly output and we're only 7 months in (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...utput-guidance)...
Redalert I'm curious do you think a rate cut and the price of iron ore are the main things keeping the AUD from going down faster? Because I think these are important factors but the commodity currencies are not 100% commodity movers.....other factors move the price. Any thoughts?
  • #97,953
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:21pm Jul 13, 2016 9:21pm
After all these analysis anybody can covince me that when the employment rate went up from 5.7 to 5.8 and when the employment change went down to 7.9k less than expected , there are somebody bought the aud usd after these data ???????
  • #97,954
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:23pm Jul 13, 2016 9:23pm
Quoting polonoon
After all these analysis anybody can covince me that when the employment rate went up from 5.7 to 5.8 and when the employment change went down to 7.9k less than expected , there are somebody bought the aud usd after these data ???????
the entire world was probably sitting short and decided to close out the position and SLs got hit either that or someone went SL hunting
  • #97,955
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:29pm Jul 13, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting polonoon
After all these analysis anybody can covince me that when the employment rate went up from 5.7 to 5.8 and when the employment change went down to 7.9k less than expected , there are somebody bought the aud usd after these data ???????
Its not always black or white. The data itself doesn't have to swing the price the same way. There are a number of different factors. Remember, we are talking about human sentiment. The price is NOT going up for very long in my opinion. I think its just a bunch of noise and I was slightly surprised too I was like whoa the AUD is still long. People are looking at it like its a safe currency, there is a corrective movement, and there are too many other factors moving it up, but remember the price is not moving at break neck speed. Its much smaller than you think lol.
  • #97,956
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:54pm Jul 13, 2016 9:54pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} So are you short on this pair or waiting?
completely no interest atm. i just check on it occassionally for signs of reversal long term. probably months or years away though, but hate to miss it. caught gbpnazd bus down for an amazing ride...well for a good part of te tripanyhow, hope to do the same here when the time comes
  • #97,957
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:57pm Jul 13, 2016 9:57pm
I still think this is going up to 0.7700. From there I'll be looking to short, though.

I've also moved my stop up to BE as this up move seems like it may be losing a bit of steam, and that 0.7650 area has been holding steady as resistance recently.
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  • #97,958
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:00pm Jul 13, 2016 10:00pm
Quoting bladerogers
{quote} completely no interest atm. i just check on it occassionally for signs of reversal long term. probably months or years away though, but hate to miss it. caught gbpnazd bus down for an amazing ride...well for a good part of te tripanyhow, hope to do the same here when the time comes


Very good! The GBP pairs are correcting now, a lot of them, on the 1 & 4 hour time frames. I rode the GBP/NZD down too, not done yet either!!!
  • #97,959
  • Jul 13, 2016 11:17pm Jul 13, 2016 11:17pm
Now ur talkin! The b***h is diving now...

I guess it is just buying time and space especially when BoE is reducing its rates later today...

This sucker has got to go higher before the anoiuncement and lower afterwards...
  • #97,960
  • Jul 14, 2016 1:39am Jul 14, 2016 1:39am
Quoting QuPuteh
Now ur talkin! The b***h is diving now... I guess it is just buying time and space especially when BoE is reducing its rates later today... This sucker has got to go higher before the anoiuncement and lower afterwards...

Yea its just retracing waiting to see what happens!!!
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