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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,601
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:45pm Jul 13, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting lancedes
{quote} GU looks weak and UJ going nowhere, so i'm quite undecided at the mo. Saying that, there's been a slowdown in downward momo since London close, so a return to 138.90 may be on the cards through Asia.
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. We've got BoE rate decision tonight though, so definitely some risk there.
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  • #17,602
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:02pm Jul 13, 2016 3:02pm
My Bias is still down. i think GJ still have lots of down side to slide. unless it breaks yesterday's high 139.40. i will scalp on the short side. GL to all the Bulls

VD
  • #17,603
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:10pm Jul 13, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting vodanh
My Bias is still down. i think GJ still have lots of down side to slide. unless it breaks yesterday's high 139.40. i will scalp on the short side. GL to all the Bulls VD
It could, but like I said earlier the 50-hour SMA needs to break before we see any more downside. That hasn't happened yet as it's currently offering support.

Also, I have a hard time seeing us just drop from current levels. Seems like we'd need to test or come close to testing the highs first... 138.50-139.50 perhaps. If price fails on that attempt, I think it'd be a clear signal to sell.
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  • #17,604
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:15pm Jul 13, 2016 3:15pm
Hi all,no never comment but I read and I salute you Geppy, I like your stile and read your page daily, I am holding a long now, which is 15 pips in the red, however I the support has been tested 3 times on the hourly and it hasn't given way, I think that we will drift up a couple of dozen pips and range in between that and this level,I don't see the BOE cutting interests tomorrow, it makes no sense unless they want to turn the pound in to Monopoly money,it has taken a big beating already, in a short time, said that I will close my long soon and then see what Asia brings.
  • #17,605
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:21pm Jul 13, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting pips-scout
Hi all,no never comment but I read and I salute you Geppy, I like your stile and read your page daily, I am holding a long now, which is 15 pips in the red, however I the support has been tested 3 times on the hourly and it hasn't given way, I think that we will drift up a couple of dozen pips and range in between that and this level,I don't see the BOE cutting interests tomorrow, it makes no sense unless they want to turn the pound in to Monopoly money,it has taken a big beating already, in a short time, said that I will close my long soon and...
Hey pips-scout, thanks for the kind words!

Super interesting you don't see them cutting rates tomorrow. Seems the consensus is that they definitely will. I like hearing opinions from people who actually live there though, so thanks. If they don't cut rates, this thing could really rocket higher.
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  • #17,606
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:43pm Jul 13, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey pips-scout, thanks for the kind words! Super interesting you don't see them cutting rates tomorrow. Seems the consensus is that they definitely will. I like hearing opinions from people who actually live there though, so thanks. If they don't cut rates, this thing could really rocket higher.
I just don't see it, also this Brexit is far from done
  • #17,607
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:55pm Jul 13, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey pips-scout, thanks for the kind words! Super interesting you don't see them cutting rates tomorrow. Seems the consensus is that they definitely will. I like hearing opinions from people who actually live there though, so thanks. If they don't cut rates, this thing could really rocket higher.
Its a massive dilemma because on one side we in Britain are heavy consumers, as the pound is devaluing across the board inflation will be out of control, the prices of food, oil everyday utilities will become more expensive, consequently we will have less disposable income and local businesses take a hit. To control this there's a need to stabalise/slowly increase rates which will also increase FDI (foreign direct investments)
On the other end of the spectrum, local businesses/households need rates to stay low as many of them are over-leveraged (good old banks ay) on assets which they think they own and also to keep the economy/stock markets/businesses stimulated through cheap "money". The problem is we will have less FDI and imports will be more expensive. For things like silver/gold/metal/oil exporters its happy days.
Thats my two pennies!
Oh and I agree, I believe rates will stay as they are tomo
  • #17,608
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:59pm Jul 13, 2016 3:59pm
Quoting kingdomk
{quote} Its a massive dilemma because on one side we in Britain are heavy consumers, as the pound is devaluing across the board inflation will be out of control, the prices of food, oil everyday utilities will become more expensive, consequently we will have less disposable income and local businesses take a hit. To control this there's a need to stabalise/slowly increase rates which will also increase FDI (foreign direct investments) On the other end of the spectrum, local businesses/households need rates to stay low as many of them are over-leveraged...
Wow, love this kingdomk. Thanks for your input. I'm more of a charts/technical guy, so I really appreciate someone savvy on the fundamental side of things.

Seems like quite the dilemma (like you said), and I hope you're right that they leave rates unchanged. That'd be grand :-)
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  • #17,609
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:00pm Jul 13, 2016 4:00pm
Quoting pips-scout
{quote} I just don't see it, also this Brexit is far from done
Hey bud, this seems contradictory. You said you were long in your last post but you "don't see it"? Are you referring to us moving higher or the BoE cutting?

Also, when you say "Brexit is far from done"... that to me would mean there's more pain coming and you'd be bearish Sterling. Sorry for all the questions just trying to fully understand what you're getting at.
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  • #17,610
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:01pm Jul 13, 2016 4:01pm
OK, all. The daily update is now live here: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...undup-7132016/
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  • #17,611
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:11pm Jul 13, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} It could, but like I said earlier the 50-hour SMA needs to break before we see any more downside. That hasn't happened yet as it's currently offering support. Also, I have a hard time seeing us just drop from current levels. Seems like we'd need to test or come close to testing the highs first... 138.50-139.50 perhaps. If price fails on that attempt, I think it'd be a clear signal to sell.
Yes I was waiting for a 38.2 % retracement myself (starting at 6/23), which would be over 140 and it didnt quite make it there. Let's see if it continues down or if it goes up one more time. Its surely going down, its just a matter of how soon!
  • #17,612
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:16pm Jul 13, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey bud, this seems contradictory. You said you were long in your last post but you "don't see it"? Are you referring to us moving higher or the BoE cutting? Also, when you say "Brexit is far from done"... that to me would mean there's more pain coming and you'd be bearish Sterling. Sorry for all the questions just trying to fully understand what you're getting at.
I dont see the rate cut tomorrow, its such a small amount and rates are already at historical lows, also banks will most likely not pass the savings on amyway, making the rate cut pointless, furthermore because of the rates been this low for the longest time in history, people thought it wouldn't last for ever hence the fixed rate mortgages have been on the increase and the choice of most, so in actual day to day family life there won't be any savings to the consumers, effectively a rate cut now would make people worse off.

I am long indeed, and the pa has put me back in to the green like I expected to happen after ny close.

This Brexit affair feels like it's not really going to happen, politicians that keep resigning and are reluctant to actually put it in to action, I think something will be done, not quite like the Greeks, but the uk will not actually leave the eu in the end.
  • #17,613
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:25pm Jul 13, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting pips-scout
{quote} This Brexit affair feels like it's not really going to happen, politicians that keep resigning and are reluctant to actually put it in to action, I think something will be done, not quite like the Greeks, but the uk will not actually leave the eu in the end.
Ahhh, got it. That was the disconnect here. It's an interesting thought experiment for sure. And you make great points about the BoE decision tomorrow. I just hope they see it as logically as you do. Fingers crossed!
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  • #17,614
  • Jul 13, 2016 5:37pm Jul 13, 2016 5:37pm
ForexLive has an interesting write up on the BoE decision:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/preview-...wered-20160713
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  • #17,615
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:27pm Jul 13, 2016 8:27pm
Aussie data coming up in <5 minutes.
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  • #17,616
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:32pm Jul 13, 2016 8:32pm
Quoting Geppy
Aussie data coming up in <5 minutes.
Employment down but it might not change the PA much
  • #17,617
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:34pm Jul 13, 2016 8:34pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Employment down but it might not change the PA much
Small rally. The data was actually pretty good. Nice upward revisions on previous data.

Sorry for posting here, it was an accident. Meant to do it in the FMM thread.
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  • #17,618
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:43pm Jul 13, 2016 8:43pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Small rally. The data was actually pretty good. Nice upward revisions on previous data. Sorry for posting here, it was an accident. Meant to do it in the FMM thread.
No problem....yea small rally.
  • #17,619
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:14pm Jul 13, 2016 9:14pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} No problem....yea small rally.
For now, yeah. I think we see this pair continue higher for the coming days though.
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  • #17,620
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:17pm Jul 13, 2016 9:17pm
I am hesitant to make any prediction atm. But I just tell what my chart tells me. On my chart, UJ H1 and H4 is still going up, may be we will see 105 soon.
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