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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,821
  • Jul 13, 2016 6:58am Jul 13, 2016 6:58am
Cool. Thanks for the feedack.
Sometimes it is difficult to separate noise from valid news.
Probably best to only pay attention when the talking heads are actual EU/ECB officials that make the decisions.
  • #141,822
  • Jul 13, 2016 7:07am Jul 13, 2016 7:07am
That was it for a dull summer European session. Euro struggling a lot to hold these levels, in desperate need for a hand to avoid lossing the handle and below.

BOC on the wires not expecting much but to confirm caution. Anything else could trigger the domino in the Fx board for NY given the very thin markets. Last chance to crack the lows in the Euro before the BOE tommorow and we are entering in choose your poison time for the short term in Sterling and Yen.

On the rest of the board nothing to see or do at the current levels.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,823
  • Jul 13, 2016 7:18am Jul 13, 2016 7:18am
Sisse,

In your opinion have we now seen a bottom in GBP?

The political uncertainty has been removed and should the BOE disappoint at tomorrows meeting the current rally could take price further away from the 1.28 zone. My thoughts are that there will be no rate cut tomorrow and the will wait for the August meeting which is only 3 weeks away in order to have more statistics available before making a final decision. Would a dovish statement alone be enough to re-test the lows?

I understand the rate differentials between the UK & US which could potentially become even wider in the not too distant future but again if the UK begins to show some signs of strength post brexit I'm not too sure how low it could go.

I usually find that when the market is heavily weighted in one direction i.e. looking for 1.25 or below, the market usually moves in the other direction.

At what point/price does your current short term map become invalid?

I look forward to your insights.

Andrew
  • #141,824
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:16am Jul 13, 2016 8:16am
Cameron in his farwell speech and A hardcore brexiter named Chancellor of the exchequer. The UK lost one of the last ones (Osborne) with some sense and plan for the Economy (even if u disagree with his views and policies) .

The UK officially with a new government but sadly with a huge ???? In the economic and foreign policy front with lots of hardliners in the political front but with zero economic plans....

Let's see how this plays out in the next few weeks.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,825
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:30am Jul 13, 2016 8:30am
I'd say it's obvious how it will play out. Is the UK headed for economic prosperity over the next weeks/months versus the US? Well that's an easy answer.
  • #141,826
  • Jul 13, 2016 9:23am Jul 13, 2016 9:23am
Quoting suntan
Sisse, In your opinion have we now seen a bottom in GBP? The political uncertainty has been removed and should the BOE disappoint at tomorrows meeting the current rally could take price further away from the 1.28 zone. My thoughts are that there will be no rate cut tomorrow and the will wait for the August meeting which is only 3 weeks away in order to have more statistics available before making a final decision. Would a dovish statement alone be enough to re-test the lows? I understand the rate differentials between the UK & US which could potentially...
He already talked about this, GBP is in red zone, it requires advance trading management, this is similar to EUR last year in March. it went up, burst lots of account when everybody was screaming for the ultimate parity......
  • #141,827
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:22am Jul 13, 2016 10:22am
Euro on life support cluster of compression in a tiny range. If someone told me that eurusd would hold brexit low , I wouldnt believe him, let alone holding 1.1000 handle against TA and FA , at least according to my analysis and expectations. Patience...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,828
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:44am Jul 13, 2016 10:44am
Europe going home with Sterling and Yen struggling as expected since the US opening leaving a wide range for the BOE short term play. A flop and a short squeeze will be trigger anything else will be nothing new.

Euro chopping around for nearly 2 weeks and held another session....


Quoting hoom
Euro on life support cluster of compression in a tiny range. If someone told me that eurusd would hold brexit low , I wouldnt believe him, let alone holding 1.1000 handle against TA and FA , at least according to my analysis and expectations. Patience...
March no hikes Bulls keep holding the EURO but they are sitting against an avalanche if they lose the floor. No break no shake so they have the benefit of the doubt but they won't convince me to change positions until further data that points somewhere else.

We'll see. The longer and narrower the compression, the largest the expansion will be.

Bulls have a very hard hand TA wise too as the best bet is a short squeeze to the highs of the 1.12xx. Even then will be in troubles and will need a major game changer to take the highs while to the other side, lows are naked and losing the 1.10xx leave us pretty much on 'free fall' to the lows 2015...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,829
  • Jul 13, 2016 12:30pm Jul 13, 2016 12:30pm
sisse,

For the sake of learning, I need to understand risk management better. I was in the GU trade from .331X and held onto my trade all the way down to the .28XX level and put my stop at .321X just to preserve some profit if price retraced that much as I was playing for .25XX or .21XX levels on RISK play and MID and LONG Term being a quick leg down.

It didn't pan out and I am so frustrated with myself for leaving my trade on and losing that much profit. I know there has to be a way to play this better. Perhaps, I should have taken a third off, two-thirds off ect....

As tempted as I was to jump back in at .33XX, I didn't as I am sitting on my hands to let the BOE play out. I felt a squeeze and thin markets could be in the making and I should wait as price may try and test the CB level (.3500) of trying to hold GU.

But, you did say OUTLOOK in GU is Aggressive SELL and looking for areas for short-tops but also cautioned due to BOE play. I do not believe I managed risk in my original trade from .332X to .28XX and I was I fool to have sat on my hands and not taken a SHORT at the .33XX handle?

I am still in my EU position but have added around the .106X area which was my FLIP on my MAP. Really felt the Floor would have been tested. However, I believe we are in the zone where it is a chop zone to make you second guess your trade. I know my MID and LONG TERM Outlook in EU and I am going to continue to follow it.
  • #141,830
  • Edited 12:52pm Jul 13, 2016 12:40pm | Edited 12:52pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, For the sake of learning, I need to understand risk management better. I was in the GU trade from .331X and held onto my trade all the way down to the .28XX level and put my stop at .321X just to preserve some profit if price retraced that much as I was playing for .25XX or .21XX levels on RISK play and MID and LONG Term being a quick leg down. It didn't pan out and I am so frustrated with myself for leaving my trade on and losing that much profit. I know there has to be a way to play this better. Perhaps, I should have taken a third off,...
consider that when big boys lose,lose big,including soros gbp trade before brexit(ofcourse you should follow news) then you can consider that these big boys will give their selves another chance to cover some of their loss before it went deep into hell

6 july
gbpusd is at 1.29 zone
Quoting vasily
................so at the point ı can expect some correction or stall with gbpusd eurusd is still in bearish mode but slow.it dont want to show that it effect from bexit but actually it do. the big problem for eurusd is now italy. banks and productivity.focourse eu now will be more helpfull to its members after brexit and to keep the group together
ı knew it again
  • #141,831
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:50pm Jul 13, 2016 4:50pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, For the sake of learning, I need to understand risk management better. I was in ..t.
The first problem you are struggling (and it comes since we started chatting) with the basic mechanics of trading. I know you are trading spot with a retail US broker so as mentioned a few times already:


-> Enter with 3 or 4 (but no more than 5) separate trades at the same area/price so you can bypass the FIFO rule that way you can manage the positions properly. Don't increase size just split the capital size in the 3 or 4 trades.

-> you entered without a clear exit plan and that's a very ammeteurish mistake for an experience trader like you.

When we cleared fíes target 1.28xx I suspect you didn't have multiple positions and that's why you couldn't clear and second and probably more important you were off by a mile or two with current volatility in GU and were expecting a usual chop intraday zone to be formed and last for a few days around there.

We are playing mega macro levels in multi decade plays with a major game changer in play ...don't treat current markets in sterling as random micro leg that will just wait for everybody to jump in....

Want to learn from mistake. Never enter without a clear exit plan. If you don't have a target and stop clear don't even bother taking the trade and second split your positions (in your case cause FIFO in multiple entries around the same price) without increasing he size so you can manage your positions properly.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,832
  • Jul 14, 2016 1:13am Jul 14, 2016 1:13am
Extremely active European opening in the FX board with Sterling on the centre but this time also in the Euro.

Early noise/leaks in the City about the extend of the BOE action (Rate cut and a major overshot on QE expectations is the noise....) Anything less than a nuke will be disappointing.

The last market in Europe about to fully align with the rest on negative rates and a endless QE. A great day for those riding the pig on free money but from an economics point of view BOE + Fed flopping to hike this year will trigger the most scary, weak and dangerous environment we have witness since the interwar period and will make me a perma-bear in the global economy starting as early as next quarter.

For now. BOE with another dynamite for the short term play.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,833
  • Jul 14, 2016 1:37am Jul 14, 2016 1:37am
very extreme
Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #141,834
  • Jul 14, 2016 1:41am Jul 14, 2016 1:41am
Wild volatility sending shockwaves from the Yen. Japan pretty much about to guarantee free money forever (literally). The world is gettin mad with QE and low rates but Japan officially crossing the line of what is technically feasible.

I read desperation from Japan rather than policy after the last bazooka this week. As soon as we clear short term jitters in the UK(or we blow on risk) Japan is the 'next' big thing for next year and beyond.

This is aligning to end up very bad ...we'll need to dig deeper in this topic later but for now we have too much in the plate so a flop in BOE and it's macro clearing time in GJ that has a huge trade in play to 150.xx

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,835
  • Edited 3:31am Jul 14, 2016 3:03am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting USD-Bear
very extreme {image}
..and according to the ^VIX (12.78) everyone is fearless and US Equities are on steroids again.

It's almost like a game of 'chicken' who will lose their nerve first at these record highs and take profit
before the retrace begins.
  • #141,836
  • Jul 14, 2016 3:47am Jul 14, 2016 3:47am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} ..and according to the ^VIX (12.78) everyone is fearless and US Equities are on steroids again. It's almost like a game of 'chicken' who will lose their nerve first at these record highs and take profit before the retrace begins.
Fantastic value for those wanting to protect long equity exposure through buynig puts on indices. Looking at S&P500 Dec Puts.
  • #141,837
  • Jul 14, 2016 3:48am Jul 14, 2016 3:48am
Opening range completed. We are entering in no man land for the BOE. Eyes on GU losing the 1.32xx handle on inertia.

All maps cleared in the FX board for the play. Last tickets available for those willing to load/reload or clear. A flop will be 'easier' to trade both in equities and fx raher than anything on expectations . A major overshoot (cut to 0.1 or a massive increase in QE or both) will blow a hole in a direct play in Sterling and Euro as collateral but not in a Yen because is shorcircuit now after this week announcements from Japan leaving Equities high on esteroids.

If you don't know exactly what you are doing is better to stay aside in anything Sterling this time....here and on the rest of the board: same levels, same trades, same all. We'll reevaluate live after data.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,838
  • Jul 14, 2016 4:02am Jul 14, 2016 4:02am
Quoting sisse
Wild volatility sending shockwaves from the Yen. Japan pretty much about to guarantee free money forever (literally). The world is gettin mad with QE and low rates but Japan officially crossing the line of what is technically feasible. I read desperation from Japan rather than policy after the last bazooka this week. As soon as we clear short term jitters in the UK(or we blow on risk) Japan is the 'next' big thing for next year and beyond. This is aligning to end up very bad ...we'll need to dig deeper in this topic later but for now we have too...
It is desperation but also they (Japan) have little choice.

Japan has appalling demographics (and won't allow immigration of educated and skilled working age people to counter this effect), low productivity, insipid growth, highly indebted government (not so important, given the huge savings in the private sector) and a private sector that won't spend or invest due to entrenched expectations of low or negative price changes. In addition, we have global growth that is slowing, risks from China, so little chance of external demand picking up the slack.

They have tried ZIRP for years, which has failed to arrest the above flaws in their economy, attempted negative interest rates, which have some unintended negative effects (and some unknown longer term effects), namely leading to those nearing, or at, retirement age, to save even more as interest income from their savgings and fixed income products continues downwards, and it also diminishes the margins of commercial banks, disincentivising them from lending.

In recent years the BOJ has effectively been printing money, monetising the deficit through QE purchases. The BOJ now holds close to 40% of all outstanding JGBs and, with gross public debt-to-GDP ratio standing at 230%, there is no chance that these bonds will ever be sold by the BOJ back to the market. So, in effect, the BOJ has already cancelled a large chunk of the government's debts. However, no one really talks about this defacto debt cancellation, as it remains a highly taboo subject.

The perpetual bond that is being talked about is a more honest and upfront way of assisting the economy than QE, bringing what is a taboo subject out in the open, as the BOJ will buy the bond from the government, openly financing the government's spending with new money. This should be more stimulative than traditional QE, assuming the government uses the funds for infrastructure spending, as QE doesn't inject that much demand into an economy.
  • #141,839
  • Jul 14, 2016 4:11am Jul 14, 2016 4:11am
Quote
{qute} It is desperation but also they (Japan) have little choice. Japan has appalling demographics (and won't allow immigration of educated and skilled working age people to counter this effect), low productivity, insipid growth, highly indebted government (not so important, given the huge savings in the private sector) and a private sector that won't spend or invest due to entrenched expectations of low or negative price changes. They have tried ZIRP for years, which has failed to arrest the above flaws in their economy, tried negative interest...

Good post. Not sure if agree with your final conclusion.

I see it closer to Einstein definition insanity ..." doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results". They are trying to put in a screw using a hammer. Wrong tools for the real problem.

We'll see but this will trigger a long follow up in Japan and the bond markets

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,840
  • Jul 14, 2016 4:12am Jul 14, 2016 4:12am
gbpusd

Quoting vasily
cameron >> cameroff mrs may took the lead attention ^^ this is the last good news you can hear from uk for last 6 to 12 months now we will probably hear reate cut qe shrinking economy budget deficit due to tax cut and runaway investros poor labor market poor domestic growth expanding trade deficit and so on...... there is only one thing probably can save uk trade is india.expect fast growing relations and infastructure constructions with india
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