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  • #141,801
  • Jul 12, 2016 7:59am Jul 12, 2016 7:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes. Here... {quote} Same question IMARiCh asked in the prev cases in the Euro 1.15xx and GU 1.50xx mid term outlook changes to short and Chester asked in the other short term case of outlook change short ...same reply: => what do you think are the odds that this is 'just a wick' in the M and the currentt short term leg highs will be the high of thew year? => 2110xx is the limit (mid term I am talking about). Can you spot the flip? sisse
2105.xx !! mid term play
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,802
  • Jul 12, 2016 8:06am Jul 12, 2016 8:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes. Here... {quote} Same question IMARiCh asked in the prev cases in the Euro 1.15xx and GU 1.50xx mid term outlook changes to short and Chester asked in the other short term case of outlook change short ...same reply: => what do you think are the odds that this is 'just a wick' in the M and the currentt short term leg highs will be the high of thew year? => 2110xx is the limit (mid term I am talking about). Can you spot the flip? sisse
Thank you, very clear now.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,803
  • Jul 12, 2016 8:42am Jul 12, 2016 8:42am
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  • #141,804
  • Jul 12, 2016 8:43am Jul 12, 2016 8:43am
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Cool unisex chart in Mid Term SELL Outlook translated to SP500...my guess at least.
PVSRA
  • #141,805
  • Jul 12, 2016 8:54am Jul 12, 2016 8:54am
Quoting Fisher755
{image} Cool unisex chart in Mid Term SELL Outlook translated to SP500...my guess at least.
It will be much easier to spot the top in UK FTSE, We currently have the flip in play at 668x,x with top range still lock at 687x,x
  • #141,806
  • Edited 11:00am Jul 12, 2016 10:42am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting hoom
{quote} added 1.318x edit: 1.324x[added] ,1.335x, 1.346x where I look if we can get more. I don't like current pa , carney better not be bulshitting us!
another one ...

edit: intraday reference H1 chart
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Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,807
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:06am Jul 12, 2016 11:06am
Quoting hoom
{quote} another one ...
You are trading air in a very thin market. Take it with the BOE/W close combo on the way back instead. Let this squeeze to the algos ('nobody' has traded this area yet 1.34xx -> 1.131xx). You are edging against the wrong hands at wrong time in a very thin and wide area ...my 2 cents ...GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,808
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:08am Jul 12, 2016 11:08am
Quoting IMARICH1
{image}
If you notice the V shape bottom pattern , the pullback after the completion of the V is where support lies for continuation...then flip 208x !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,809
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:12am Jul 12, 2016 11:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are trading air in a very thin market. Take it with the BOE/W close combo on the way back instad. Let the squeeze to this squeeze to the algos ('nobody' has traded this area yet 1.34xx -> 1.131xx). You ar edging against the wrong hands and the wrong time in a very thin and wide area ...my 2 cents ...GL sisse
agree

Quoting hoom
{quote} still not that easy for me to spot those entries ... I try ,depending on my experience from countless hrs I spent looking for chart/price action , to re-built entries as it gets near breakout lvls for exemple [ I chicken out on fading quick retraces sometimes je je je ]...your explanation is pretty accurate on where large hands cleared longs and real money come from .
basically I am averaging 1.318x-1.346x nothing harmful overall as for management ...
I am still core short from above .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,810
  • Jul 12, 2016 12:32pm Jul 12, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} As you well know predicting the ultimate high in ATH in any instrument is a pointless exercise. Equities are overextended both TA and especialy FA wise. I personally think there is very limited room left. Cracking with a sustainable break 2150.xx will be very hard to say the least. More importantly and take it as a hint to dig deeper. Bonds markets rarely (don't think I rembember once myself) lie in key inflection points. Bonds are now pricing and are set to more than a healthy correction but a rather sharp and extensive blow in the economy...
Its funny to see how the retail sentiment shifts. So many primitiv analysts all over the web turning bullish calling 2200. Exactly as the theoretical chart "change to sell outlook example" says - "Retail: moon is the limit. dont even smell the change".

Of course we may be wrong. Lol CBs can make fly anything away from earth gravitation as they wish But I share the view of short term extension = wick on mid term map. Dont have lvls above 2110 limit. Maybe 2150 could be it
  • #141,811
  • Jul 12, 2016 12:53pm Jul 12, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} ....could be it
Of course. The key premises when we started discussing this a couple of months ago: The job of a trader is minimize risk not count potential winners.

--> Consistent money is not in how many times you are right but in how much you lose when you are wrong.

In this case, the 'beauty' of trading maps is that we have zero risk for now if we are wrong...which in context is a superb trading plan...


Let's see how it goes.
Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,812
  • Edited 4:56pm Jul 12, 2016 4:32pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}Of course. The key premises when we started discussing this a couple of months ago: The job of a trader is minimize risk not count potential winners. --> Consistent money is not in how many times you are right but in how much you lose when you are wrong. In this case, the 'beauty' of trading maps is that we have zero risk for now if we are wrong...which in context is a superb trading plan... Let's see how it goes. Sisse
ie if you make 1k per trade , make 5 wins and lose 5k per trade then your winning ratio wont mean anything , money management is key whatever experience you have 5 or 50 years . Your iterations are an exemple of MM that is ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,813
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:23am Jul 13, 2016 2:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are absolutely right not all people who voted for leave are racist, uneducated bigots, the problem is ALL racist extremist and ultras voted for leave !!!! I was in Gatwick in a lounge early in the morning when I wrote that post. I was looking to pick the Financial Times from the newspaper stand when it struck 90% of the headlines and front page of the English newspapera and tabloids that sadly are what usually mst of thr Brexiters (not all of course) read were full of insults and xenophobic lies and remarks... For a minute I wasn't sure...
Like all remainers you are conflating democracy with racism not all democrats are racist either and I think you and all remainers deliberately imply that there is some sort of equivalence to deflect attention from the real issues - It's a trick they always use and have used for the last 70 years - If anyone disagrees with you, just call them a racist and it shuts down any meaningful debate.

One last q, if I may, you obviously support immigration to the UK - Can I ask - how much immigration is good.

Is it 1mil or 10 or no limit(a la Merkel) - If there had ever been any sort of rational discussion of this, there probably wouldn't be a problem with racists.
  • #141,814
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:45am Jul 13, 2016 2:45am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Like all remainers you are conflating democracy with racism not all democrats are racist either and I think you and all remainers deliberately imply that there is some sort of equivalence to deflect attention from the real issues - It's a trick they always use and have used for the last 70 years - If anyone disagrees with you, just call them a racist and it shuts down any meaningful debate. One last q, if I may, you obviously support immigration to the UK - Can I ask - how much immigration is good. Is it 1mil or 10 or no limit(a la Merkel)...
Sory, may i interupt?
I think everything have two sides, question on immigrants remain a political issue. Whilst in economic term, immigrant increase competitiveness in Labour market thus improve productivity in both the long and short run. It would also reduce wage and indirectly reduces cost and price for producer. We could write an essay on this but lets stop here and put some thought into it
What The Government should be focusing on are those illegally migrate into the country instead of attacking everyone.
  • #141,815
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:02am Jul 13, 2016 3:02am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Sory, may i interupt? I think everything have two sides, question on immigrants remain a political issue. Whilst in economic term, immigrant increase competitiveness in Labour market thus improve productivity in both the long and short run. It would also reduce wage and indirectly reduces cost and price for producer. We could write an essay on this but lets stop here and put some thought into it What The Government should be focusing on are those illegally migrate into the country instead of attacking everyone.
Ok, no argument from me but can you answer my q - how much(many) is good?????? when does it, if ever, become bad?
  • #141,816
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:24am Jul 13, 2016 3:24am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Ok, no argument from me but can you answer my q - how much(many) is good?????? when does it, if ever, become bad?
I think you are too obssesed in the question of racism. France,Belgium,Germany have got multicultural societys and % of inmigration similar too England. I think that the inmigration produces xenophobia in the moment that the basic rules of neighborhood or pillars from the socialdemocratic europeans countries are erosionated by the quantity of inmigration. I agree that this question should had been discussed before the Schengen signal. At least there should had been a public discussion about this, but there were a signal without a discussion, and this produces a feeling ( in Continental Europe too) that lack of Democracy and dissaffection from Brussels institutions.
  • #141,817
  • Edited 5:25am Jul 13, 2016 3:37am | Edited 5:25am
Opening range completed. Another dull and thin session in the making. Not much to do see until the BOE that is the main dish this week so same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse

***no trading read alert (feel free to skip)

@satan

you are out of topic and in the wrong forum. You seem to be more interested in the pure politics of this rather than the market perspective so let me quickly wrap it up before we descend into non sense.

->First, don't forget our almighty Queen is second generation German.

->Second we are talking about the EU and not about immigration. You are mixing 'apples with motorbikes'.

->Third, watch out we don't have double standards. We are the country in the EU with more 'immigrants'(for you maybe 'expats' sounds better in the case of English people abroad) leaving in other EU countries ...

->Fourh, if you want to talk about immigration (nothing to do with main EU issues in play with Brexit. The posters that replied above makes a lot more sense. As economist, for me the 1st line is pretty simple.

The U.K. Just ticked the lowest unemployment in 10 years and the BOE had (not anymore) achieving full employment (4.3%) by next year since we shoot ourselves in the foot. ...

...most( not all) problem with migration outside of economics is probably via cultural, religious and sadly racist and xenophobic reason rather than real reasons.

->Don't want to get into local politics outside of markets and even brexit. So the last argument is simple democratic and demographics.

80% of the people that voted remain live in areas where a staggering (90% of the EU citizens work and pay their taxes) in the UK, while 95% of the people that voted leave because of EU 'migration' (whatever that means) concerns live in areas where only 5% of the EU citizens live in the UK......

You do the maths and tell me who was misleading in the campaign and more importantly why?...</p>

Enough with this part please. Either keep it to brexit in relation of markets, trading and economics or better look for a different forum. (...as i mentioned there are plenty of them in the Uk for these kind of arguments.) as we are crossing the line of pure politics ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,818
  • Jul 13, 2016 5:04am Jul 13, 2016 5:04am
Some weak macro numbers coming in, with China's exports falling by nearly 5% in June and imports slowing by 8%, pointing to a marked slowdown in global trade. In the Eurozone, Industrial Production fell by 1.2%, worse than the expected 0.8%, meaning a sharp slowdown is expected in Q2 GDP.

There are also weak numbers and downgraded forecasts from Japan, leading to increased expectations of a $100bn (at the very minimum) fiscal stimulus being planned.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-on-abenomics
  • #141,819
  • Jul 13, 2016 5:43am Jul 13, 2016 5:43am
Sisse,
I was wondering what you view is on this piece regarding Renzi and the Italian banks situation:

http://theduran.com/italys-loan-prob...e-bank-hiding/

I try not to be influenced by unofficial stories, but I do wonder how contaminated German Banks(EU) would become if the Italian banking system went into meltdown. It seems Merkel (et al) is being wedged between a rock and a hard place.

They don't want to do anything but it may not be possible to do nothing and (as it was said by one EU official) "let the Italian banks sort out their own mess".
  • #141,820
  • Jul 13, 2016 6:25am Jul 13, 2016 6:25am
Quoting bullionman
Sisse, I was wondering what you view is on this piece regarding Renzi and the Italian banks situation: http://theduran.com/italys-loan-prob...e-bank-hiding/ I try not to be influenced by unofficial stories, but I do wonder how contaminated German Banks(EU) would become if the Italian banking system went into meltdown. It seems Merkel (et al) is being wedged between a rock and a hard place. They don't want to do anything but it may not be possible to do nothing and (as it was said by one EU official) "let the...
I have seen some articles around by non specialized media about that. It looks like some are trying to push their own political/and prolly broker/crypto currency agenda with that one.

Italian banks are as weak as they have been in the last 8 years. Not a inch more or less. Those short term 'news' look a bit force.

Sure it could go bad quickly if Europe descend into chaos via UK/EU collapse, as not only Italy but. the whole financial system in Europe will feel the shock.

For now is 'nothing to see' there and after next week you will hardly find somebody interested in banks in Italy in the middle or 'ferragosto' until September...then we'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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