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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,761
  • Jul 8, 2016 1:27pm Jul 8, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with markets in perfect synch especially FTSE testing key 6600.xx for the W close for the BOE rate cut next week and with Euro finally losing floor. {quote} {quote} They are going for ATH don't bother fading it right now ...my 2 cents. Markets were in desperate need for good news. Relief rally from the US macro side and we have rate cuts and a potential avalanche of more free money for the bastards from Europe (risk and CB) in the upcoming days. Except from a massive risk blow in the UK (not expected next week cause BOE) there...
well done to the bulls in equities. for sure NFP came in strong, but the average of 140k+ over the months is not that exciting. Also, the number is pre-brexit, but will that have any implications on US jobs? I dont know... regardless, it is a head scratcher for the Fed... in any case, equities are loving it, but I am a bit surprised about the yen...

personally, I welcome the tiny pops in european equities to load up some short positions, but as you say, the key area in FTSE100 and BoE should get us excited

on the currency front, I am loaded in some puts on FXE and FXB, but also interested in actual spot, where for euro I am eyeing 1.0780 and obviously below if the Fed is for real on the hiking cycle.

overall all as planned, except for SP500 which I can only sit on for now. (was waiting for the vol pop and some movement to the south, but obviously it is northbound and we are at ATH)
  • #141,762
  • Jul 10, 2016 6:57am Jul 10, 2016 6:57am
Sisse, I have asked the same question in 'The Swamp'-thread and got some a lot of very useful info already. Just wanted to get your view of the following questions if you have some time to answer:

I was looking at the charts and I don't really understand the correlations anymore. Maybe I see it too simplistic.
Yen and gold are generally safe havens in risk-off environments, they are both soaring, so risk-off.
Oil is falling again, but the commodity currencies are rising especially New Zealand dollar.
Stocks are also soaring, generally risk-off I guess.
So looking at yen and gold it looks like a risk environment but it doesn't reflect in stocks and commodity currencies(I understand they are pumping free money in the economy everywhere).
So everything looks a little bit contradictory or am I missing something? Can this situation keep up or something ready to blow up?
  • #141,763
  • Jul 10, 2016 1:17pm Jul 10, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting ceetee
Sisse, I have asked the same question in 'The Swamp'-thread and got some a lot of very useful info already. Just wanted to get your view of the following questions if you have some time to answer: I was looking at the charts and I don't really understand the correlations anymore. Maybe I see it too simplistic. Yen and gold are generally safe havens in risk-off environments, they are both soaring, so risk-off. Oil is falling again, but the commodity currencies are rising especially New Zealand dollar. Stocks are also soaring, generally risk-off I...
Yeah I've noticed that as well, AUD and NZD have been the stronger of the USD crosses, wonder why that's happening because usually in risk-off environments they are some of the weakest. Could also be just a short-term correction for further down movement, but when you see EUR/USD go down but AUD/USD go up in the same hour it's definitely something to pay attention to.

edit: Looking at AUD/USD, a short from these levels is pretty value, but I don't think I will pull the trigger until I get in sync.
  • #141,764
  • Edited 1:13am Jul 11, 2016 12:52am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting ceetee
S everywhere). So everything looks a little bit contradictory or am I missing something? Can this situation keep up or something ready to blow up?
Quote
I was looking at the charts and I don't really understand the correlations anymore. Maybe I see it too simplistic.
First, don't worry questioning yourself what's going right now. We are in the middle of important mid and long term inflection points in the FX board triggered by Brexit.The fact you acknowledge something real is cooking / happening means you will are/will be better prepare than most around to adapt for change sooner rather than later in trading.
Quote
en and gold are generally safe havens in risk-off environments, they are both soaring, so risk-off.
Yes YEN is the traditional currency when risk is in play as you can clearly see in this year charts. Today Japan announced for the 1mill time in the last few years that will launch another rocket into the Yen in order to keep the economy for what is now a permanent coma. Yen is picking up but 'nobody' really buy the impact anymore. UJ for sure will find floor short term (remember we changed to mid term last week on the expectation of imminent BOJ intervention and good NFP). As always it will be 2 step up from a desperate Japan policy makers and 3 steps down as long as risk is in play. For this week(s) we have Italian banks contagion and from next one Brexit and all that ...
Quote
Oil is falling again, but the commodity currencies are rising especially New Zealand dollar.
Oil is moving as collateral right now (check back posts x details) as FA and TA its already settled since over a month (with OPEC and all clearing of positions) but the mid outlook looks very soft as per today. China is still struggling to find a hard bottom. The UK is set for recession from next year and contagion to the rest Europe seem unavoidable for 2017/2018 meaning demand may plumbet and OIL will follow through despite supply factors.
Quote
Stocks are also soaring....
Indeed. Brexit triggered an avalanche of more free miney, rate cuts and no hikes across the world. As always ride the free money pig first ask the questions later even if the FA and mid term implications of extreme monetary policy with potentialy Europe descending in chaos and recession 2.0 could be devastating in mid term.... Like usual bastards will make a killer and deal with the consequences later one way or the other.
Quote
looking at yen and gold it looks like a risk environment
Gold is also a place to run on risk. However the FED hikes will keep it on offer and in check (we are in soft choppy buy outlook short term cause of this clash)
Quote
cmmodity currencies....
Are in the very back seat right now. Europe (Sterling and Euro) and the US are now in play on macro legs in play so softer and thinner currencies like AUD and NZD are pretty much irrelevant for the current legs. They are moving 90% as collateral of the major forces and the rest on their own structural and politocal reasons (like in AUD). This will last for a few more weeks until the FX is settle ....then they will back on track for the rest of the year. We'll chat more in the upcoming days...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,765
  • Edited 4:51am Jul 11, 2016 1:12am | Edited 4:51am
Thanks for the explanation.​

Especially on the commodity currencies, how they just keep rising with all the world problems. They are at interesting levels, especially New Zealand Dollar. Looking forward to your view on these currencies, the next few days.

For me it is also strange that the Euro is holding so well, after the Brexit it went down a bit, but they are in bigger trouble than what it is priced in now? I have read all the discussions before and the midterm outlook is parity and below. Timingwise,we have to be very close to a Euro selloff I guess or will it keep getting supported by the big central banks? The Swiss keeps saying the Franc is overvalued, so will they keep the value of the Euro up so the Franc doesn't get overvalued even more?

Thanks for taking the time to answer, really appreciated and helpful.

PS: You mentioned the following:
--> To the other side, nothing tradable R:R wise. A strong short-circuit will trigger a short squeeze with most of the market short term caught in the wrong side 1.105x -> 1.114x to trigger the squeeze to the take the highs and extend the move to the mid/highs of the 1.12xx handle. Nothing tradable in my case but rather clearing time short term and try again later....

Is it still possible to get to the 1,12x? At the moment it looks like 1,10 is difficult to crack.
  • #141,766
  • Jul 11, 2016 5:45am Jul 11, 2016 5:45am
Quoting vasily
{quote} us stocks bullish
sp500 all time high
ı told you
  • #141,767
  • Jul 11, 2016 6:21am Jul 11, 2016 6:21am
A relativitly stable European morning with Japan and the BOE flooding the markets and headlines with cheap money.nothing new across the board with Equities riding the pig as expected....

Eyes on NY to complete the extension to ATH before BOE confirm the details this week.

sisse

PS: at the poster above... You are making a fool of yourself. I know you want to promote your services but read the last 10 pages there is plenty of proper market talk and try to contribute something useful and relevant beyonh smiley faces...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,768
  • Jul 11, 2016 8:37am Jul 11, 2016 8:37am
Quoting sisse
A relativitly stable European morning with Japan and the BOE flooding the markets and headlines with cheap money.nothing new across the board with Equities riding the pig as expected.... Eyes on NY to complete the extension to ATH before BOE confirm the details this week. sisse PS: at the poster above... You are making a fool of yourself. I know you want to promote your services but read the last 10 pages there is plenty of proper market talk and try to contribute something useful and relevant beyonh smiley faces...
you know nothing my dear.ı dont post 500 word count posts.just the result.sp500 all time high
  • #141,770
  • Jul 11, 2016 8:53am Jul 11, 2016 8:53am
Quoting vasily
{quote} you know nothing my dear.ı dont post 500 word count posts.just the result.sp500 all time high
Quoting vasily
what is wrong being bullish with stocks and stocks makes new all time high...!? you call me f/uck off , fool {image}
Depends on the insulted person

one more time just leave this thread , I don't care if you're a con artist/scam...whatever you're selling/advertising , keep your words for yourself .

btw , you know Sisse could open his own thread anytime, we'll follow there , so stop making a fool of yourself if you don't wanna be called as one and return to your corner!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,771
  • Jul 11, 2016 8:55am Jul 11, 2016 8:55am
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} Depends on the insulted person one more time just leave this thread , I don't care if you're a con artist/scam...whatever you're selling/advertising , keep your words for yourself . btw , you know Sisse could open his own thread anytime, we'll follow there , so stop making a fool of yourself if you don't wanna be called as one and return to your corner!
  • #141,772
  • Jul 11, 2016 9:01am Jul 11, 2016 9:01am
what is wrong being bullish with stocks and stocks makes new all time high...!? forum trade related ı think
  • #141,773
  • Jul 11, 2016 9:07am Jul 11, 2016 9:07am
Quoting vasily
what is wrong being bullish with stocks and stocks makes new all time high...!? forum trade related ı think
you want to know what is wrong ! ok...

No one asked for your opinion in the first place and everyone in this thread can tell you clearly that they're not interested in your comments at all .

the truth can be ugly sometimes I know ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,774
  • Jul 11, 2016 9:21am Jul 11, 2016 9:21am
Just ignore
  • #141,775
  • Jul 11, 2016 9:22am Jul 11, 2016 9:22am
Quoting hoom
{quote} you want to know what is wrong ! ok... No one asked for your opinion in the first place and everyone in this thread can tell you clearly that they're not interested in your comments at all . the truth can be ugly sometimes I know ...
my turth
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500H1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #141,776
  • Jul 11, 2016 9:27am Jul 11, 2016 9:27am
I never laughed so hard in my life...

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
Cluttered charts are visual diarrhea. Whats on your charts?
  • #141,777
  • Jul 11, 2016 10:31am Jul 11, 2016 10:31am
Europe going home with UK finally announcing a new Government. Cameron out this week and he could pass in history as the last elected PM of the UK and the one that trigger Europe next recession and back to protectionist, xenophobic Europe. Good riddance really.

Back on trading, extreme uncertainty officially closing chapter with Equities on a high on free money and low rates and a very mild and limited so far Sterling relief rally.

Now we can finally move to the economic and political fallout impact plays. GL to the UK and Europe as hopefully this doeant end in a another third world country political show.

All eyes in the new government after the BOE this week to see if we enter in constructive mode or if the mountain of withdraws and business pulling the plug become a hard reality after the summer.

Until then keeping short term UK Equities outlook in neutral and in Sterling aggressive sell. Watch out for euro one more time (4th attempt) to take the lows as risk fade this week until the BOE.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,778
  • Jul 11, 2016 10:47am Jul 11, 2016 10:47am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with UK finally announcing a new Government. Cameron out this week and he could pass in history as the last elected PM of the UK and the one that trigger Europe next recession and back to protectionist, xenophobic Europe. Good riddance really. Back on trading, extreme uncertainty officially closing chapter with Equities on a high on free money and low rates and a very mild and limited so far Sterling relief rally. Now we can finally move to the economic and political fallout impact plays. GL to the UK and Europe as hopefully this...
I'm really interested in what comes next in the chapter as UK Equities are entering extreme zone without fundamental base below it but only free money from the BOE.
  • #141,779
  • Jul 11, 2016 11:11am Jul 11, 2016 11:11am
Has anyone seen anything abt bank runs in Italy happening now?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...anic-in-italy/
  • #141,780
  • Jul 11, 2016 11:45am Jul 11, 2016 11:45am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} I'm really interested in what comes next in the chapter as UK Equities are entering extreme zone without fundamental base below it but only free money from the BOE.
Â
Indeed.
Â
We have a nuclear reactor about t explode in the background. From all property funds, large banks, manufacturing, tbe almighty Cambridge and all Universities in distress, all space and advanced tech research sector and o even 'game of thrones' producers (I found about this one last Friday in a dinner that they receive EU funding and that's why they ar base in the UK for Europe...lol) are in standby, in a lot of uncertainty, ready to pull the plug and others already packing bags
Â
.Masses are distracted with Murray and Wimbledon, markets are squeezing free money, mass media is focused in bias politics while the business community is begging for clarity before is too late.
Â
The irony for the brexiters is that a 'discusting immigrant' is leading the only public institution in the UK that had an actuak plan the BOE (Carney is Canadian for those unaware).He has one of the hardest jobs on earth right now. He will be critizise for doing to much, too little, too late, too fast or anything really.
Â
IMO the BOE bazooka of annihilating the Pound and cutting rates + QE +++ is the only one keeping this ship afloat while politicicians play kindergarten politics. He may be single handle the one that save the UK.....
Â
we'll see.
Â
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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