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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,741
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:48am Jul 8, 2016 7:48am
...and manually clearing all shorts Yen positions on the test UJ 100.9x. First and very important update from NFP:

--> Changing mid term outlook in YEN (UJ) from sell to Neutral but keep it the same on the short term via Brexit risk ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,742
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:52am Jul 8, 2016 7:52am
..second important update from NFP:

--> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from soft buy to Neutral but keeping the same outlook in the short term via Brexit risk...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,743
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:55am Jul 8, 2016 7:55am
....third update from NFP:

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to neutral . Keeping the mid term the same.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,744
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:59am Jul 8, 2016 7:59am
....and finally and THE most important one for the FX board.

--> Changing mid and long term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,745
  • Jul 8, 2016 8:05am Jul 8, 2016 8:05am
Quoting sisse
....and finally and THE most important one for the FX board. --> Changing mid and long term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Buy sisse
dollar still holding ...eurusd 1.1000 intact !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,746
  • Jul 8, 2016 8:05am Jul 8, 2016 8:05am
Quoting sisse
....and finally and THE most important one for the FX board. --> Changing mid and long term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Buy sisse
I was mentioning to some one yesterday.

You are a very good teacher. These days i post in FF very rarely, but when I see useful posts i can not refrain from posting.

Keep up your good work.
Intraday only.
  • #141,747
  • Jul 8, 2016 8:11am Jul 8, 2016 8:11am
Quoting hoom
{quote} dollar still holding ...eurusd 1.1000 intact !
We are here [short-circuit in correlation] and more importantly the FA is for the mid term trigger...meaning large hands caught in the the wrong side need to clear first ...

NY will give you the 'ok' if we play today or we go to sleep for a soft and measured ebb and flow for the rest of the month:

Quoting sisse
...A good number/overshoot (as its expected)[check] will caught them in the wrong side in Dollar [in play] but in the right side in Equities (as mentioned yesterday "good news will be good news" [in play] from now on) creating a major short-circuit in correlation [in play]across the board and potentially triggering a manic rally.[in play]
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,748
  • Jul 8, 2016 8:15am Jul 8, 2016 8:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We are here [short-circuit in correlation] and more importantly the FA is for the mid term trigger...NY will give you the 'ok' if we play today or we go to sleep for a soft and measured ebb and flow for the rest of the month: {quote} sisse
yep mid term in play but this is squeezing ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,749
  • Jul 8, 2016 8:18am Jul 8, 2016 8:18am
Quoting hoom
{quote} yep mid term in play but this is squeezing ...
Here for reference:

Quoting sisse
...->1.114x to trigger the squeeze to the take t
Quoting sisse
...For those who haven't choose your poison yet, a bit of a very poor area to [check] load during the news added to wide range of combinations in play as strong revisions may be in play after that awful miss last NFP.
Basically all soft hands cleaned now before NY there is no squeeze yet. Only a clean up of soft hands. Remember that the news alone (if you were not already in) were 'untradable' because poor r:r now the real deal will come one way or the other ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,750
  • Jul 8, 2016 9:36am Jul 8, 2016 9:36am
That was it for the opening range. As expected, US Equities unlocking ATH and a clean up of the FX board via Dollar.

Noisy part of the moves done across the board, expecting markets to make a solid path as early as Europe goes home today....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,751
  • Jul 8, 2016 9:58am Jul 8, 2016 9:58am
Quoting vasily
{quote} us stocks bullish
  • #141,752
  • Jul 8, 2016 10:36am Jul 8, 2016 10:36am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} SP500 Comment: I am not really surprised ...the only logical explanation for me is visible in the charts ( at least I see it that way and it is just my opinion). Maybe we should all remind ourselves at times like this that Big Interlinked Banks operating this "free" market have endless resources of fiat paper $$$$ and can push prices whenever they want and how far they want with it. The only thing that can stop them are some CBs (like we witnessed at SNB peg removal last year)... I of course agree with you on all other points and...
SP500 Comment:
Yep, right back in the stop hunt zone. No sign of revesal yet, but probably around the corner.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .US500CashH4 2.7..png Size: 102 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .US500CashH4 8.7..png Size: 90 KB
PVSRA
  • #141,753
  • Jul 8, 2016 11:03am Jul 8, 2016 11:03am
Europe going home with markets in perfect synch especially FTSE testing key 6600.xx for the W close for the BOE rate cut next week and with Euro finally losing floor.

Quoting sisse
--.... FTSE holding 6600.xx [super check]with or without support from US NFP will pretty much set a mid term top in UK equities and will set the high of this year. ...
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} SP500 Comment: Yep, right back in the stop hunt zone. No sign of revesal yet, but probably around the corner. {image} {image}
They are going for ATH don't bother fading it right now ...my 2 cents.

Markets were in desperate need for good news. Relief rally from the US macro side and we have rate cuts and a potential avalanche of more free money for the bastards from Europe (risk and CB) in the upcoming days. Except from a massive risk blow in the UK (not expected next week cause BOE) there is not much to see if you are not long from way below until July FED.

We are back on track with the US economy & rates and with the UK (Europe) for the ebb and flow via risk for the rest of the summer....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,754
  • Jul 8, 2016 11:47am Jul 8, 2016 11:47am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with markets in perfect synch especially FTSE testing key 6600.xx for the W close for the BOE rate cut next week and with Euro finally losing floor. {quote} {quote} They are going for ATH don't bother fading it right now ...my 2 cents. Markets were in desperate need for good news. Relief rally from the US macro side and we have rate cuts and a potential avalanche of more free money for the bastards from Europe (risk and CB) in the upcoming days. Except from a massive risk blow in the UK (not expected next week cause BOE) there...
Read all your posts today, sorry just trying to understand. So dollar will be stronger midterm to long term due to risk and right now they are covering which is the reason why the knee jerk up move today after recent fundamentals?
  • #141,755
  • Edited 12:25pm Jul 8, 2016 11:51am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting Wavves
{quote} Read all your posts today, sorry just trying to understand. So dollar will be stronger midterm to long term due to risk and right now they are covering which is the reason why the knee jerk up move today after recent fundamentals?
This is how I interpreted it. Covering. Money was on the wrong side and had to cover.
  • #141,756
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:08pm Jul 8, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting sisse
++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ Iteration 12 You snooze, you lose update1 (Elapsed Time 18 hours 10 days)
A quick update to start wrapping up the week.

Very well done Fadhl, Pixie666, PipJet, Ghandi, glassblower we got stuck in chop zone for the play. A great play if any of you got it trading live. For both the only long left in the contest and everybody else in the short side all open and still in play as we couldn't break the range this week.

sisse

====== Iteration 14 ======

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.105x++++

(Total Time 12 hours 7 days)

"Knee jerk reaction or a trend change"


-> No touch 1.118x / 1.098x (till W close) [check] -> TP2 => No touch 1.1280 | 1.088x [check](till noon NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

Pixie666

PipJet

Ghandi

glassblower


Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,757
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:21pm Jul 8, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting Wavves
{quote} ... So dollar will be stronger midterm to long term due to risk ...
Dollar will be stronger mid term to long term period [due to risk]. Why?

  1. US economy is not only back on track but is going to be 100 miles away from the rest of the world after Europe shot themselves in the foot via Brexit in the next few Quarters.
  2. Expectations of rates are back on the table (1 or 2 for this year) while the rates in Europe and the rest of the world are actually even going further away (BOE about to cut rates, ECB, BOJ and almost all are looking beyond dovish) meaning expectations of rate differentials are getting further and further apart.
  3. Yen and Euro (carry) are the buffers for 'normal' risk but if we blow panic in the next few weeks via UK (Europe) Dollar was, is and will always be and now more than ever the only haven.


Quote
and right now they are covering which is the reason why the knee jerk up move today after recent fundamentals?

Not really. The last conversation you are reading above with hoom was just to hint him to not miss the forest for the trees.

The quick intraday spikes reaction in the Euro was very simple and expected as you can read from the post before the play. We had a wide range (for intraday standards) that make the knee jerk reaction whipsaw (clean up) most if not all soft hands in the range but in reality we only had the floor in play to unlock the mid term leg.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,758
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:23pm Jul 8, 2016 12:23pm
Great Call FX-mates! I wanted to go Neutral; but, went with SELL. I didn't think .088X would hold if NFP was good (as expected and was).
  • #141,759
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:44pm Jul 8, 2016 12:44pm
Thank you for the clarification sisse, you're awesome!
  • #141,760
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:58pm Jul 8, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting sisse
. Here actively looking to 'top-up' shorts positions in Sterling from NY open until NFP... sisse
1.2990 was a good 'top-up' for short position ?
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