The Really Useless Thread | Page 7087 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,721
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:22am Jul 7, 2016 8:22am
sisse,

No, no and no.

I don't want to trade Short TF. I am trying to trade a Short Term, Mid and Long Term Leg in Play. I am trying to understand where a retrace may end from this .28XX handle move. Why? Because I Shorted at .33XX. Why would I want to hold onto this position if it retraced all the way back up? That's horrible risk management. It would be better to close the position at the .28XX and bank that profit and look for a retrace or fade. But, then I could miss the bigger move if I did that.

I am just trying to see how you would play this move. Sit tight and add not worrying if price came back to your position or not. I know you are adding to your position but should I have cleared some, all or none at the .28XX?

I think you believe I am looking at Short Term but I am not really. I just didn't know if you looked for a level to add. I see .33XX being a good level t add if price retraced there; but, if it does I lost out on the capital I recently made. Is this making sense on what my question is aiming at?
  • #141,722
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:24am Jul 7, 2016 8:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} LOL mate ...well I have no clue why should you even bother looking at that if you are aiming for a short and mid term swing? If you want to trade intraday I can only give you some very rough hints on that but you will need to do the homework as I am not interested in looking that close to the market. On the top of my head. You may use a decent intraday TF that is correlated to the smaller hands you want to play against. I don't know for example M5/m15 use something like H1 or so and do the maps and etc and try to define the direction and...
I want to add a little something , a personal observation, that could be irrelevant: to scalp on lower TFs , I notice that after 7/8 consecutive up/down candles there is 90% chance of revesal on the next one/ones [in a ranging market is better]...anyone, take my advice with a grain of salt !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,723
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:30am Jul 7, 2016 8:30am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, No, no and no. I don't want to trade Short TF. ...?
If we stay stuck in intraday chop zone today we'll try to open a iteration in GU for tomorrow NFP...

Quoting hoom
{quote I notice that after 7/8 consecutive up/down candles there is 90% chance of revesal on the next one/ones [in a ranging market is better]...anyone, take my advice with a grain of salt !
..... a big shout @PayTheLimitif he is around .... he will have something to say about this ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,724
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:54am Jul 7, 2016 8:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} If we stay stuck in intraday chop zone today we'll try to open a iteration in GU for tomorrow NFP... {quote} ..... a big shout @PayTheLimitif he is around .... he will have something to say about this ... sisse
Hmmm

on another note DXY still holding the break ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,725
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:16am Jul 7, 2016 9:16am
Quoting sisse
... TA wise actively looking for entries for 2110.xx -> 1750.xx with intermediate stops soft 2040.xx and strong 1975.xx.
That was it for the opening range. Eyes on US equities entering 2110x right on time for NFP. I am running out of 'checks' across all markets. Every single one is on key launching platforms. Not sure to be scare or happy to what is cooking in the background .....

Whatever the case, ATH naked again in US equities for NFP on the top side but the money is in the other side as things from the Brexit front are literally inches away to blow out of proportions.... not much to see here, loading last positions in equities within the next couple of sessions and I am running out of trades and capital to trade (and not precisely for the lack of opportunities if you know what i mean).

Today more than ever, nothing to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all ...GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,726
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:16am Jul 7, 2016 9:16am
EU ministers to vote on Spain and Portugal deficit sanctions on July 12

the countries could be fined by up to 0.2% of GDP
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,727
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:20am Jul 7, 2016 9:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} That was it for the opening range. Eyes on US equities entering 2110x right on time for NFP. I am running out of 'checks' across all markets. Every single one is on key launching platforms. Not sure to be scare of happy to what is cooking in the background ..... Whatever the case, ATH naked again for NFP on the top side but the money is in the other side as things fro the Brexit front are literally inches away to blow out of proportions.... not much to see here, loading last positions within the next couple of sessions and I am running out...
there is a broker with unlimited leverage which is being advertised in the ads ie 0 margin needed ...if you want to throw some money away go for it
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,728
  • Jul 7, 2016 12:51pm Jul 7, 2016 12:51pm
Europe went home with Euro and Yen holding to the tick to trigger the next major break legs ...since then markets went to sleep pretty much waiting for the move to unfold. Floor is naked in Sterling, Yen and Euro and 'roofless' in Dollar.

Only a 'miracle' last minute will avoid the unavoidable in the FX board and not even waiting till NFP might be enough to stop it. Literally it can go any minute...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,729
  • Jul 7, 2016 1:35pm Jul 7, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting sisse
Europe went home with Euro and Yen holding to the tick to trigger the next major break legs ...since then markets went to sleep pretty much waiting for the move to unfold. Floor is naked in Sterling, Yen and Euro and 'roofless' in Dollar. Only a 'miracle' last minute will avoid the unavoidable in the FX board and not even waiting till NFP might be enough to stop it. Literally it can go any minute... sisse
I believe EU closed at .1065 or .1067 so how do define to the tick. I was looking at a close under .1080. To the tick would mean you were looking at something else and maybe a diff time. I use the 11:30am close in Eastern US time which is 4:30pm your time.

I almost loaded up again at the .305X handle but was afraid you meant price could retrace back to Supply or Resistance at .319X/.3200 so I waited. A fool again!
  • #141,730
  • Edited 2:16pm Jul 7, 2016 1:56pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I almost loaded up again at the .305X handle but was afraid you meant price could retrace back to Supply or Resistance at .319X/.3200 so I waited. A fool again!
If you find yourself changing your plan or making different minute by minute trading decisions based on someone else's comment in a forum like this I would check that. I bet you are best off going with your gut and personal analysis. Even if it don't work out you get more out of it. That's been my experience anyway. Not that I need to be giving out advice to anyone. Just caught my eye. I bet you are better at this than you think. That's my point.
  • #141,731
  • Jul 7, 2016 2:05pm Jul 7, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I believe EU closed at .1065 or .1067 so how do define to the tick.
In yen to the tick..
  • #141,732
  • Jul 7, 2016 2:28pm Jul 7, 2016 2:28pm
PAStalker,

Ok. Thanks!

goosebone,

Thanks for the words. But, in all fairness sisse said changing outlook in GU short term from SELL to AGGRESSIVE SELL. I was just being stupid and a fool. I knew that a .305X was a good retrace from .28XX . I just was trigger shy as for the last 3 months I have been in 2 losing trades that now have rewarded me nicely and I am just trying to be smart about risk management. I was thinking I better not load at .305X if price could go 200 more ticks to .3200. I missed out. Ship sailed. But, I am still in at .3300 level just missed an opportunity to load. GL in trading!
  • #141,733
  • Jul 7, 2016 2:52pm Jul 7, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks for the words. But, in all fairness sisse said...............
Cool. Good luck to you too.
  • #141,734
  • Jul 7, 2016 4:04pm Jul 7, 2016 4:04pm
...and we rolled Yen and Euro barely held but keep holding at the end ... It has been years since Tokyo has something to say in the global FX board but Tokyo/Asia with the upper hand for the second time this week via Yen.

GL all trading overnight if you get some mover and shakers....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,735
  • Edited 4:18am Jul 8, 2016 4:06am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I believe EU closed at .1065 or .1067 so how do define to the tick. I was looking at a close under .1080. To the tick would mean you were looking at something else and maybe a diff time. I use the 11:30am close in Eastern US time which is 4:30pm your time. I almost loaded up again at the .305X handle but was afraid you meant price could retrace back to Supply or Resistance at .319X/.3200 so I waited. A fool again!
In strong sell we know the direction . Why use a hard sl when trading the higher TF with short, middle and long term strong sell outlook. ( If you dont use a very high leverage) Middle and upper Bollinger band rejection is also excellent for getting in to positions on 4H.
Only reason to get out of short positions GBP is if fundamental change or tp targets hit.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,736
  • Edited 7:16am Jul 8, 2016 6:54am | Edited 7:16am
...and here we go for a another NFP this time with very important FA and a rather nearly irrelevant TA in play.

=> On the Fundamental side:

A very important and complex NFP today as we have major FA forces clashing and in wait for a clear macro outlook path and all covered with an external thick cloud of 'risk' in the air via Europe.

---> 3 things in play for today numbers (it can get a bit complex and technical this time):

 

  1. We have strong FED dovish side who are ignoring so far global risk in the equation side that pretty much have digested expectations of no hikes (or max 1 more hike) at the end of the year.

     

    1. A good number/overshoot (as its expected) will caught them in the wrong side in Dollar but in the right side in Equities (as mentioned yesterday "good news will be good news" from now on) creating a major short-circuit in correlation across the board and potentially triggering a manic rally.


  2. We have the v cautious side that is not fully convince employment has yet reach full employment and the intersection with inflation is not yet happened (for those with Economic's background ... 'the Phillips Curve')

     

    1. An inline is/ will just leave us in the status quo in the short term with at least 1 or 2 hikes for this year.



  3. We have the strong RISK adverse side that believe full employment and inflation target is already meet (thus, the weaker NFP numbers) and risk for the rest of the year is the one to position for.

    1. An undershoot/third flop in a row will send massive shockwaves across the board as most of the no hikes is already digested but the softening of the US economy with global jitters and Europe on the brink of triggering a major selloff for the summer and beyond.


=> On the Technical side

---> All crystal clear across the board. Mid term legs in play in Dollar and potentially in Equities and the rest of the board as collateral. Check lists of info from back post for details but in general mid term levels in play:

 

  1. DX 94.4x, S&P 2110,xx, GOLD 1440.xx and OIL 45.5x.
  2. On the FX board, All majors already in imminent break triggered and in the shorter term only Euro hasn't clean the floor yet. Dollar is and will be the kingmaker until the FED July.

---> For the actual flows (Euro only)

Well not much to see or do from the lasts few posts and iterations. The failure to break down earlier this week leave and give the benefit of the doubt for the very 'stubborn' bulls. We have wide range in play for today with both top (1.118x) and bottom (1.104x) are naked and unprotected.

For those who haven't choose your poison yet, a bit of a very poor area to load during the news added to wide range of combinations in play as strong revisions may be in play after that awful miss last NFP.

--> Only the downside tradable for today. Inline/slightly better overshoots for taking the lows and completing the legs 1.108x-> 1.098x -> 1.088x with max extension 1.074x until FED july.

--> To the other side, nothing tradable R:R wise. A strong short-circuit will trigger a short squeeze with most of the market short term caught in the wrong side 1.105x -> 1.114x to trigger the squeeze to the take the highs and extend the move to the mid/highs of the 1.12xx handle. Nothing tradable in my case but rather clearing time short term and try again later....

GL all trading, planning to trade or just interested in digesting a KEY NFP...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,737
  • Jul 8, 2016 6:57am Jul 8, 2016 6:57am
Quoting sisse
Only the downside tradable for today. Inline/slightly better overshoots for taking the lows and completing the legs 1.108x-> 1.098x -> 1.088x with max extension 1.074x until FED july. --> To the other side, nothing tradable R:R wise. A strong short-circuit will trigger a short squeeze with most of the market short term caught in the wrong side 1.105x -> 1.114x to trigger the squeeze to the take the highs and extend the move to the mid/highs of the 1.12xx handle. Nothing tradable in my case but rather clearing time short term and try again later.......
Been waiting for this one and agree with your analysis

Now that brexit is confirmed, I would really like to see a good NFP + good revision so we can at least get some solid direction
  • #141,738
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:30am Jul 8, 2016 7:30am
V. strong numbers as expected .... and "Boom goes the dynamite!"

sisse

PS: poor revisions and Earnings so a solid NFP but not spectacular number....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,739
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:37am Jul 8, 2016 7:37am
...and that was pretty much it for today.

We are pretty much back on track on the US economy so it was a bit of a bump in the road last month. Eyes on NY to take the highs on Equities and trigger ATH test but still constrain to risk in Europe on the background.

On the Dollar all clear for the summer too. Tracking very closely Euro as its the only one holding the FX board short term.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,740
  • Jul 8, 2016 7:44am Jul 8, 2016 7:44am
Quoting sisse
V. strong numbers as expected .... and "Boom goes the dynamite!" sisse PS: poor revisions and Earnings so a solid NFP but not spectacular number....
It does qualify the poor NFP last month as an outlier though, so that along with the brexit slams the door shut on 1.247x and probably anything above 1.17xx imo
112 traders viewing now