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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,701
  • Edited 12:11pm Jul 6, 2016 11:56am | Edited 12:11pm
sisse,

Thanks for the continued analysis. I am just absorbing.

Being transparent here and knowing I may not have played this well due to Minutes/NFP. But, I took my GBP Short from 1.400X and cleared at 1.313X. I then, took another Short at .333X and am currently holding. I am holding out for the .2500 level or .21XX to pan out. However, my concern is if Large Hands will be clearing profit in GBP and I would lose my gains here prior to Minutes/NFP. Wondering if I should sit tight with my position or clear. I know your MAP has .21XX [in play]

Yes, this INTRA-DAY Flows, I get it. But, wanting to protect what I have gained rather than lose it to INTRA-DAY NEWS. MY LONG TERM MAP is cloudy as I don;t know for sure if GBP will reach the .21XX level. I think .25XX is a good bet at some point.

I am still holding my Short in EU and have been waiting and waiting to add to it once I know BULLS are finished and DO not not need to be concerned as much with PA going NORTH and mainly South.

Thanks.
  • #141,702
  • Jul 6, 2016 12:11pm Jul 6, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks for the continued analysis. I am just absorbing. Being transparent here and knowing I may not have played this well due to Minutes/NFP. But, I took my GBP Short from 1.400X and cleared at 1.313X. I then, took another Short at .333X and am currently holding. I am holding out for the .2500 level or .21XX to pan out. However, my concern is if Large Hands will be clearing profit in GBP and I would lose my gains here prior to Minutes/NFP. Wondering if I should sit tight with my position or clear. I know your MAP has .21XX [in play] I am...
--> Sterling is in advanced trading management mode. It wont be easy to manage it and like a 'usual' swing at these levels as we have a major break down in play with macro fundamentals that need to settle a new long term range value for Sterling (as we discussed about the consequences of Brexit). Thats not a simple task neither something that will be easily tradable for anyone.

The best bet there trading management wise is panic and quick continuation in a full capitulation move (as the end of Lehman collapse back in the 2009 when major political, economic, financial and a huge world combined effort$$$$ put a stop) in the next few days. The longer it takes, the hardest it will be for all investors and traders to ride the swing clean.

In practical terms you want Dollar side to enter in play via risk (today + NFP) and BOE keep signalling that Sterling need to drop even further. As long as those factor are in play just manage as tight as possible (obviously with a huge volatility scope) as you can. You may not get the jackpot, but if you don't it on the first attempt it will mean a decent retrace was in play and is time to reload again for a second try ....

--> On the Euro, nothing really to do except have patience ... , strong NO hikes bulls pre brexit/risk are still hanging but now are 100% naked. Euro wont hold a next attempt to take 1.10xx... again Dollar today/NFP will be your best friend in the very short term....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,703
  • Jul 6, 2016 12:20pm Jul 6, 2016 12:20pm
Thanks sisse! Appreciate the tip!

One more please. If you were trading the GBP at the level (.330X) where would you place your stop if wanting to see if your tix paid off to the .25X0 or .2100 handle? In other words, what is stupid risk management here and good risk management? Yes, the best bet is market capitulates. But, if it doesn't and we get a re-trace, how much would you let it go before taking profit and waiting for another swing lower?

I could just cash out now and that wouldn't be bad but is it good money management. I lack in in this area so bad. I think I should take half off, close all or hold on. All these voices yelling at me......if I lose, I want to know I lost with good sound risk management.

Thanks!
  • #141,704
  • Jul 6, 2016 12:33pm Jul 6, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting IMARICH1
T.... where would you place your stop i...!
Well that sound a good topic in the series of basic concepts for the next trading iteration. I am not going to give you the answer as I will only make it worst for you but let me ask you 1 question so you can start digging deeper and may get some answer.

Where is you natural stop without risk in the equation ? ...it can be TA or simple your hard capital limit without that you will not get anywhere further ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,705
  • Jul 6, 2016 12:47pm Jul 6, 2016 12:47pm
I would normally have a stop around 100 pips from entry or above an area in play. I know the .3000 is a Psych Level for as we are trading in no mans land here. I know that the .335X level has held well but thats my entry.

I am trying to figure out how to capitalize on my gains; yet, keep my tix for the panic play if it develops.

I dont do well in scaling in or out really. Maybe, I should take a few off here to lock in some good profit in case price retraces and; then, I think, if price goes for the golden goose that I have missed out on more gains. Maybe its greed. I just don't know how to capitalize on a good trade and make the most out of it and not the BEST.

I would say .3100 would be safer than anything in the .30XX as its still about 200 pips away for a whip saw swing....
  • #141,706
  • Jul 6, 2016 12:48pm Jul 6, 2016 12:48pm
...and here we go for the Minutes.

Not expecting anything new from the fundamental and rates side directly from the Minutes. Ears on the slow down in the job market as we have 2 (and 1of them massive flop) in a row and 3 strikes will mean out this Friday.

However, brexit is now confirmed so expecting today/NFP as a turning point in market correlation and expectations via risk for the rest of the summer. Only a super dovish details (not expected at all) is not already digested by markets and any other outcome is just continuation across the board with risk and Dollar entering in the picture.

Today is no play for the news as we have 3 iterations open that need to pan out first. For the actual flows in the Euro there is one and only one level in play for today flows. 1.107x which is the micro rain maker for the flows and those looking for pre positioning for NFP.

GL all.... Here nothing to see until reading if there is any major changes in the details of the Minutes so same levels, same trades and same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,707
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:03pm Jul 6, 2016 1:03pm
Slightly hawkish minutes on the headlines. Job slowdown was just cause short term circumstances. inflation wasn't that bad as originally expected (this raised some eyebrows last FED meeting) and more interesting almost no mention of brexit ...

Watch-out dollar highs as the 'no hikes' offers start to leave the market

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,708
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:09pm Jul 6, 2016 1:09pm
euro resiliance to fall as a funding currency is very strong , for those who want to jump in sell 1.108x sl 1.118x , it's time
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,709
  • Jul 6, 2016 2:16pm Jul 6, 2016 2:16pm
...and that was pretty much it for the day. Got what i needed not much to do here ...

Tracking 96.1x in Dollar for today's roll to see if it finally joins the rest of the FX board or if we have to wait for NFP....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,710
  • Jul 6, 2016 3:29pm Jul 6, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting hoom
euro resiliance to fall as a funding currency is very strong , for those who want to jump in sell 1.108x sl 1.118x , it's time
I'm in there. Avg short is 1089. Stops at 1121
  • #141,711
  • Jul 6, 2016 4:02pm Jul 6, 2016 4:02pm
and we rolled, Dollar couldn't take back 96.1x yet leaving the FX board still without the Green to make the final push ... Not much to see or do with irrelevant closes across the board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,712
  • Jul 7, 2016 3:21am Jul 7, 2016 3:21am
Strong opening range and the flood of bad news in the UK keep coming every day. Nearly all property funds are halted in the UK as the domino has spread very fast and some early cracks in the banking sector starting to show (this is the key and main trigger markets are tracking for contagion to Europe and global markets).

Rumours from yesterday Wales property sector became 'open leaks' and the size and numbers of the project officially cancelled are scary to say the least with forecast of nearly 75% of commercial property and new buildings in Wales (Cardiff) are been halted or cancelled ....ufff ...we'll see keeping a close eye on that one...

--> Whatever the case, Dollar (although without US markets yet on the table) finally joining the party and triggering imminent break up alerts. We have now all major pairs aligned for the first time in a while (I think this is the 2nd time this year ...)

Not much to do in the FX board but wait and see how it pans out ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,713
  • Jul 7, 2016 6:56am Jul 7, 2016 6:56am
Lots of news keep coming from the UK. On the political front N.Ireland officially entering in the Brexit mess while JP Morgan unofficially announcing the job cuts (nearly 40% of the UK workforce on the line) if London lose access to the EU (passporting) and thats just the tip of the iceberg in the City...

...but more importantly for trading short term a very aggressive BOE pretty much 'confirming' rate cuts as early as next week:

--> One more time changing short term outlook in Sterling back from Sell to Aggressive Sell with RMT triggered until next week.

Watch-out, UK equities riding the last fumes of extreme free money, QE and a nuclear short term devaluation of the pound (this is going to end up very ugly in a couple of Quarters via inflation but for now priority is to avoid a sinking ship).

Here actively looking to 'top-up' shorts positions in Sterling from NY open until NFP...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,714
  • Jul 7, 2016 7:14am Jul 7, 2016 7:14am
Quoting sisse
Lots of news keep coming from the UK. On the political front N.Ireland officially entering in the Brexit mess while JP Morgan unofficially announcing the job cuts (nearly 40% of the UK workforce on the line) if London lose access to the EU (passporting) and thats just the tip of the iceberg in the City... ...but more importantly for trading short term a very aggressive BOE pretty much 'confirming' rate cuts as early as next week: --> One more time changing short term outlook in Sterling back from Sell to Aggressive Sell with RMT triggered until...
same here , looking for cheap but risky tickets drawdown wise !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,715
  • Jul 7, 2016 7:27am Jul 7, 2016 7:27am
Quoting hoom
{quote} same here , looking for cheap but risky tickets drawdown wise !
It doesn't need to be ... smart bets are from the break 1.50xx a few months ago, aggressive large speculators and most hedge and large positions are already triggered (or the long portfolio hedges cleared) from 1.437x and the confirmation from the break 1.35xx.

Only 'laggers', trigger shy and mostly soft retail are sitting waiting for a 'large retrace' or even worst looking to swing long (is not rocket science, and no need to plot indicators to know that GU /GY/G eveything is prolly oversold in all TFs by now) .... meaning if it pans out it will/has to be quick, very fast and very sharp as it always happen on a trendy market when a break is confirmed. Failure shouldn't be costly neither painful in drawdown as it will be very easy to spot both entries and failures rather quickly...

We'll see how it goes but depending on what was your average entry shorts from above adding up should be a pretty straight forward and nearly zero / limited risk bet...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,716
  • Jul 7, 2016 7:39am Jul 7, 2016 7:39am
"top up short positions" -Meaning add to them?

From what I am reading.....the capitulation to .2100 handle is possible as laggers and soft hands are looking for a retrace TO SELL and BUY due to indicators or Oversold mentality which will make this a fast and quick ride down? Or, soft hands playing the LONG since they believe this thing is going to retrace now?

Are you looking at a 1.15xx at all now or just the .21XX? I know Parity was in the cards at one time and by the sound of things, it could get there along with EU in a short time which would be a nice reset in the currency board against the US dollar.
  • #141,717
  • Jul 7, 2016 7:50am Jul 7, 2016 7:50am
Quoting IMARICH1;
...
..."top up short positions"
Yes 'top-up' meaning add to an existing position.

..."the capitulation to .2100 handle is possible as laggers and soft hands are looking "...
NO. You are out of scope and lost in translation.

A capitulation move that size and scope (What planet are you coming mate ....we are TALING ABOUT MONSTERS MOVES on multi decade levels !!!!) would has nothing not even 1 tick reason because of soft hands or whatever getting caught in the next short term leg.

What i was referring that if you have been trading for more than 1 day you will know that ALL indicators/oscillators and in all TFs are probably oversold (1.50xx -> 1.30xx in a week or so !!!!!) so lots of soft hands will be hesitant to pull the trigger or the most naive ones even will try to fade the move ...

... "Are you looking at a 1.15xx at all now or just the .21XX?"
Why? ... why anybody will change a long term target in one session when the move hasnt even pan out or start yet and is 1000 ticks and a global collapse of FA away !!!!

..."It could get there along with EU in a short time which would be a nice reset in the currency board against the US dollar"
Yes, well spotted. Thats what is in play in the mid term RIGHT now across the FX board ...wonder why most traders and investors are in hyperactive mode now ???? wonder why we are chasing here even single development in an out since brexit? ....well you know by now ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,718
  • Jul 7, 2016 7:58am Jul 7, 2016 7:58am
sisse,

"A capitulation move that size and scope (What planet are you coming mate ....we are TALING ABOUTMONSTERS MOVES on multi decade levels !!!!) will has nothing not even 1 tick reason because of soft hands nothing.

What i was referring that if you have been trading for more than 1 day you will know that ALL indicators/oscillators and in all TFs are probably oversold (1.50xx -> 1.30xx in a week or so !!!!!) and they will be hesitant to pull the trigger or the most naive ones even attracted to fade the move ...

... Are you looking at a 1.15xx at all now or just the .21XX?
Why? ... why anybody will change a long term target in one session when the move hasnt even pan out or start yet and is 1000 ticks and a global collapse of FA away !!!!:"

-->I was referring to this move in the next few weeks or quarter. Not one session. I am on the same planet with you.

-->And, my question was, if most are hesitant to PULL the trigger due to being OVERSOLD and Large Hands have already positioned for this move; then, where would soft hands start selling? A larger re-trace than now? I am hanging out still at the .33XX handle; and, again am contemplating whether I should have cleared my trade at .28XX if it would retrace back to .32XX or more? I don;t see this happening with GBP news and especially the Good US data today and hopefully tomorrow.

-->I wasn't thinking you would change your target in a session. I was looking at different targets you have talked about since the start of last year. I know you spoke of the .21XX handle and parity. Others, have speculated 1.15XX being possible. Just was wondering with things brewing in the background more and more. But, I see you looking at that target for now and may adjust in the upcoming sessions or weeks.

Sorry I was confusing you or maybe myself even......I have to admit that once I get into a good trade I don't manage it well. Part of me said I should have taken some profit at the .28XX handle and another part said leave it alone and let it be.
  • #141,719
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:04am Jul 7, 2016 8:04am
Quoting sisse
{quote}... know that GU /GY/G eveything is prolly oversold in all TFs by now) .... meaning if it pans out it will/has to be quick, very fast and very sharp as it always happen on a trendy market when a break is confirmed. Failure shouldn't be costly neither painful in drawdown as it will be very easy to spot both entries and failures rather quickly... We'll see how it goes but depending on what was your average entry shorts from above adding up should be a pretty straight forward and nearly zero / limited risk bet... sisse
still not that easy for me to spot those entries ... I try ,depending on my experience from countless hrs I spent looking for chart/price action , to re-built entries as it gets near breakout lvls for exemple [ I chicken out on fading quick retraces sometimes je je je ]...your explanation is pretty accurate on where large hands cleared longs and real money come from .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,720
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:10am Jul 7, 2016 8:10am
Quoting IMARICH1
.... where would soft hands start selling? A larger re-trace than now..
LOL mate ...well I have no clue why should you even bother looking at that if you are aiming for a short and mid term swing?

If you want to trade intraday I can only give you some very rough hints on that but you will need to do the homework as I am not interested in looking that close to the market.

On the top of my head. You may use a decent intraday TF that is correlated to the smaller hands you want to play against. I don't know for example M5/m15 use something like H1 or so and do the maps and etc and try to define the direction and levels that your micro traders you are aiming to squeeze refuse/fail to see.

Maybe you could add some common indicators in the M5 that are use in these forums (a MACD/Stochastic/Daily Pivot or etc will all prolly work the same) to see where the softer hands will start entering, placing stops (e.g oversold, overbought, crossovers, daily Pivot etc etc) if they are against your macro direction just fade them otherwise go with the flow ...there you have it a full intraday system in 5 minutes writing ...je je je ...

Watch-out you don't get burnt yourself as you will be edging against mostly algos, in a super thin market (Sterling is thin) at very scary and major levels .... GL if you decide to go that way ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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