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BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

  • #221
  • Jul 6, 2016 10:53am Jul 6, 2016 10:53am
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} By implication, there wasn't much in the way of positive arguments in favour of Remain
Aaah.. welcome back my favorite Irishman.
(magis quam Angli se anglicus)

Ive missed your ever witty contributions..LoL
  • #222
  • Edited 11:11am Jul 6, 2016 10:54am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Why dont you simply say you dispute it? And on what grounds? Basing your remarks on the admission that you dont understand it, isnt terribly helpful given that the source is published.
Oh I do understand it.

I'm pointing out the holes in it.

Here is another hole:
Why rank by circulation at all, when most media is now consumed online? I just checked similarweb which checks the traffic of webpages, the guardian has higher UK traffic than the daily mail. Interesting... guess these researchers have never heard of the internet , that guardian bar looks awfully small lulz

You see if I tried to publish this in my line of work, the peer reviewers would come back with 'substantial revision' but most likely outright rejection. Most of science actually works like that, but anybody can just through something up on a website as Loughborough have done, it doesn't have to go out for peer review that way

Tell me cliffedwards, how often do you work with complex data that requires statistical interpretation? Because you aren't very good at it...(rhetorical question, I don't need to know how often you work on it to know you aren't very good at interpreting it )
  • #223
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:07am Jul 6, 2016 11:07am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Aaah.. welcome back my favorite Irishman. (magis quam Angli se anglicus) Ive missed your ever witty contributions..LoL
Si modo scias quid est veritas. Et reducitur ad genus meum MLXVI
  • #224
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:33am Jul 6, 2016 11:33am
I thought the media coverage was universally idiotic. Smarmy cleverness on one side, anti-foreigner on the other.

More importantly though, if some c*nt doesn't grant all europeans immediate staying rights within the next week, I'm going to stop trading and f8cking stand myself and sort it out.

The idea of exiting Europe was to free ourselves from overly bureaucratic institution that smothers its member states, and focus on becoming global. The pace of change makes us look like a bunch of insular navel-gazing knuckle dragging morons.
  • #225
  • Edited 12:58pm Jul 6, 2016 12:34pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting verv
{quote}Tell me cliffedwards, how often do you work with complex data that requires statistical interpretation?
Im so glad you ask my qualification to comment on these things....

My primary professional degree was in Business, in which I am an MBS. And in my career Ive been research director of a major UK advertising company
I grew up in a pre-internet era. In the late 70s, when I employed mainframe analysis on quantitative research projects. I further worked on groundbreaking IT projects to facilitate multidimensional attitude clustering to enhance reclassification of consumer profiling away from the then prevalent primitive demographic measures.
I had direct professional media research experience from JICTAR to BARB, and extensive print media analysis on recommendations from which hundreds of millions of client pounds were spent. In the IT area I was an early personal adopter of the PC from 1985, the internet as a research tool from 1989. A subscriber to the Well, I saw in the development of HTML, hypertext, (in concept just a multidimensional version of PML) Brenners WWW innovation, and using the original Mosaic search engines in the mid 90s. and Ive stayed in daily touch with developments in IT ever since and my6 partner is always complaining about all the screen/laptops and wires all over the place. LoL


Im a-political. I have had a reasonably distinguished career in business, and dabbled successfully in trading for over a decade and continue to advise on economic and offshore investment issues with expat colleagues and friends.

When I prefaced my posts on the preBrexit debate here UNDECIDED.. That was true.
My object was only to encourage that debate on such an important decision should be pragmatically based on risk reward basis.
Given the seriousness of the decision. I felt that all voters had a duty to put aside issues of ideology, prejudice, xenophobia spin misinformation and ignorance and and vote what would be best for our country. To look at facts not spin and vote with the head, and not emotionally.
I confess due to the utter disregard by the Leave campaign, and its apologists, of these principles, I was so disgusted at the end I cast my vote for Remain.

As a veteran of professional attitude and psychological research I also confess an interest in the attitude profiles of those posting.
As a profile indication of FF membership and contributors.

So there you have it.. @very.. Im just a silly old guy. with no idea of whats going on who whiles away his spare time between trades, with little experience of working with complex data and no trading track record, exchanging barbs with much cleverer people in FF.
  • #226
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:22pm Jul 6, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} Si modo scias quid est veritas. Et reducitur ad genus meum MLXVI
I reluctently admit.. You never disappoint me .
  • #227
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:30pm Jul 6, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting triphop
I thought the media coverage was universally idiotic. Smarmy cleverness on one side, anti-foreigner on the other. More importantly though, if some c*nt doesn't grant all europeans immediate staying rights within the next week, I'm going to stop trading and f8cking stand myself and sort it out. The idea of exiting Europe was to free ourselves from overly bureaucratic institution that smothers its member states, and focus on becoming global. The pace of change makes us look like a bunch of insular navel-gazing knuckle dragging morons.
I sense in your normally metered and insightful style a growing anger.
One Ive sensed among many of my friends and colleagues in the last week,
who like me were lulled into the thought that UK voters could never commit such an own goal.
And now as the consequences are emerging and effecting expats, EU citizens resident in the UK, industry, the City etc etc..
While the instigators Farage and Johnson slink away and leave everyone else to clear up.
I predict a very serious backlash. That will throw UK politics into an even worse maelstrom than it is already in.
  • #228
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:58pm Jul 6, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} I sense in your normally metered and insightful style a growing anger. One Ive sensed among many of my friends and colleagues in the last week, who like me were lulled into the thought that UK voters could never commit such an own goal. And now as the consequences are emerging and effecting expats, EU citizens resident in the UK, industry, the City etc etc.. While the instigators Farage and Johnson slink away and leave everyone else to clear up. I predict a very serious backlash. That will throw UK politics into an even worse maelstrom than...

I think that we all have unrealistic expectations here. The UK is at the beginning of a new phase in its history and we are expecting all the answers to be laid out in front of us. Those answer didn't even exist should we have remained in the EU. No one defined a reformed EU not even the EU itself. So seriously, what is all the fuss about. If everything was so clear and well defined, we would have machines running the World. The treasury has never been able to forecast beyond four months never mind a year of four years. The market will settle, the UK will get it's sh*t together and will move forward.

You call Farage and Johnson the instigators, but for me they are nothing more that the symptom. The EU is the instigator of all of this. The EU through it federalist intentions, incompetence, dictatorial bureaucracy and arrogance, have frustrated the people of the UK into this decision. Brexit is not the problem, Brexit is the symptom.
  • #229
  • Jul 6, 2016 2:29pm Jul 6, 2016 2:29pm
Quoting Devauxt
.... The EU is the instigator of all of this. The EU through it federalist intentions, incompetence, dictatorial bureaucracy and arrogance, have frustrated the people of the UK into this decision. Brexit is not the problem, Brexit is the symptom.
Quite so, and my mind was made up before the starting pistol was fired. My vote was aimed squarely at getting the politicos to pay attention to the people who matter in all this ... we the voters. Our society has suffered at least 30 years of neglect in the housing, education, welfare and NHS arenas.

Also, one bunch of politicians leeching from our society is enough.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #230
  • Edited 5:39pm Jul 6, 2016 4:49pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Im so glad you ask my qualification to comment on these things.... My primary professional degree was in Business, in which I am an MBS. And in my career Ive been research director of a major UK advertising company I grew up in a pre-internet era. In the late 70s, when I employed mainframe analysis on quantitative research projects. I further worked on groundbreaking IT projects to facilitate multidimensional attitude clustering to enhance reclassification of consumer profiling away from the then prevalent primitive demographic measures....
You have had an interesting life cliffedwards.

I don't think of you are a stupid old man. In fact I have read some of your other posts and just last night cited you as an educated 'Remainer'...one of the few.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=596324#post9015604
It is wrong for anyone to think the other side is stupid just because they voted one way, it leads to errors of judgement.

The attitude of many Remain voters post referendum in trying label every Leave voter as either stupid bigot or old with no future in fixing the 'mess' is repulsive. Retorts are often laced with sarcasm, or condescension and I'm happy to give that back in equal measure.

I think you are a little harsh on the Leave side, and a little lenient on the Remain. Both camps acted like complete idiots in my view, both misrepresented facts, and at times both out right lied. In spite of that, I have no issues with anyone who holds an informed opinion and thinks differently than I... provided that person is democratic in victory, and in loss. I think I understand your argument, I though rank other things like sovereignty more highly.

I also sympathise with your anger watching politicians, you aren't alone. A new low for the Leave side (probably the entire Brexit debacle) was the stunt Farage pulled by going back to the EU parliament and acting like an utter fool by slagging everyone of and then asking 'can we be best friends though'. What-the-fu*k-was-he -doing?!?! I don't watch much TV generally, I much prefer to read around the issues as I think the reduced stress levels will mean a longer and healthy life lol
  • #231
  • Edited 5:51pm Jul 6, 2016 5:35pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} I sense in your normally metered and insightful style a growing anger. One Ive sensed among many of my friends and colleagues in the last week,

1- who like me were lulled into the thought that UK voters could never commit such an own goal.
2-And now as the consequences are emerging and effecting expats, EU citizens resident in the UK, industry, the City etc etc..
3-While the instigators Farage and Johnson slink away and leave everyone else to clear up.

I predict a very serious backlash. That will throw UK politics into an even worse...
1- that is a dangerous attitude, it belittles the Leave voters whether intentional or not. 17 million don't think it is an own goal, not long term anyway

2- what about the consequences that have already been inflicted on low skill British workers, who have had disproportionately bore the brunt of the mass immigration of millions of low skilled European migrants - dramatically increasing their competition for work and pushing down wages? That can never be undone. There is another side to this country, who aren't represented by the establishment, but who turned out in mass to be heard. You colleagues and friends are ignoring their plight. Your colleagues are annoyed because they might lose a few bucks, but know many voted out because they have nothing to lose at all.

3- you know as well as I do, that Johnson couldn't get the Conservative nomination without Gove. And even with the support of Gove, he would have struggled against May. Johnson's outing was not him ducking, it was political maneuvering in the ranks of the Conservative party to prevent him from becoming PM. Boris could still get a seat in the cabinet. Farage isn't even a MP, he was never going to be part of a negotiating team in Europe, and it is just as well because politically he is toxic, the Europeans hate him and it is in the national interest that he steps aside. It is intellectually dishonest to claim that either are shirking responsibility, the truth is that their role in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations is entirely out of their hands.

We are going to be alright. Everyone is hot right now. It would be helpful if we had a chancellor that stopped with his need to be proved right, and to start sounding upbeat, even if it hurts him to do so. Have faith in Theresa May, a soft eurosckeptic, acceptable to both the Remain and the Leave Camps who can unite a Conservative government is going to be crucial going forward.


The big mess is the Labour party. The MPs despise Corbyn but cannot out him because the voting base in Labour is such that he is likely to win every subsequent leadership race. The only option for the Labour MPs is to apply enough pressure for him to go, but Corbyn has the base so if he is thick skinned enough he was stay for however long he wants, it is a stalement and we could see the party split.
  • #232
  • Jul 6, 2016 6:22pm Jul 6, 2016 6:22pm
I'm unfortunate enough to occasionally spend my lunch with nothing better to do than read a discarded copy of the Metro. When Farage quit the headlines were something along the lines of "Farage and Boris quit... Is this what they meant by Leave?" with some opponent of Farage calling him a coward. You only got Farage's statement about why he quit if you turn to page whatever to continue the article (if you could find it).

Of course neither of them are "quitters" in the sense that the Metro was trying to imply. Boris never "quit", he simply didn't stand for PM. Because of Gove. So... nothing to see there. Farage resigned as leader of UKIP because his life's ambition has been achieved (or will be when we actually leave). What else was he expected to do? Go on being a public hate figure? Were those accusing him of "quitting" hoping he'd remain as UKIP leader, or maybe hoping he'd lead us out? Hardly, given that those criticisms are from the left. So they're just trying to take a final swipe at him.

The suggestions that those who campaigned to get us out are cowards by quitting their positions now that we're out are nonsense. Those who resigned or didn't stand were not our leaders, and had no actual say in what will happen. They campaigned to get us out. That is all. They are not the ones who need to come up with the plans or see them through - that's the government's job. If they hadn't resigned and had come up with plans they would still have no more say so in our future than currently, so the complaint is ridiculous.

The only person who really "quit" a position of relevance was Cameron. And he was a remainer. As were the rest of the Labour remainers who quit because winning power is more important than sticking to principles. As much as I despise what Corbyn stands for, I admire him because he knows what he believes. Not like the standard Labour and Tory politician who "believes" whatever is the current vote-winning ticket of the day.
  • #233
  • Jul 7, 2016 1:11am Jul 7, 2016 1:11am
Quoting verv
3- you know as well as I do, that Johnson couldn't get the Conservative nomination without Gove. And even with the support of Gove, he would have struggled against May. Johnson's outing was not him ducking, it was political maneuvering in the ranks of the Conservative party to prevent him from becoming PM. Boris could still get a seat in the cabinet. Farage isn't even a MP, he was never going to be part of a negotiating team in Europe, and it is just as well because politically he is toxic, the Europeans hate him and it is in the national interest...
+1

Quote
The big mess is the Labour party. The MPs despise Corbyn but cannot out him because the voting base in Labour is such that he is likely to win every subsequent leadership race. The only option for the Labour MPs is to apply enough pressure for him to go, but Corbyn has the base so if he is thick skinned enough he was stay for however long he wants, it is a stalement and we could see the party split.
JC appears to be one of the few who actually feel for the voters. The rest carry a patriotic intent confused with a need to survive.

IMHO the current elected Labour MPs represent a legacy of New Labour which embodies the imperialist thinking of Tony Blair (and others).


@eurotrash, we are not actually out yet. There remains the necessity for an Act of Parliament to pursue the process beginning with notice under article 50; and therein lies another opportunity......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #234
  • Jul 7, 2016 1:51am Jul 7, 2016 1:51am
Quoting Exodus
{quote}+1 {quote}JC appears to be one of the few who actually feel for the voters. The rest carry a patriotic intent confused with a need to survive. IMHO the current elected Labour MPs represent a legacy of New Labour which embodies the imperialist thinking of Tony Blair (and others). @eurotrash, we are not actually out yet. There remains the necessity for an Act of Parliament to pursue the process beginning with notice under article 50; and therein lies another opportunity......
I think that JC is in touch with the new membership of Labour, but I don't think that he is in touch with the electorate at all. If I were to describe JC in a few words they would be red, communist, unionist poodle , weak, economically illiterate, 1970's throw back and unelectable. But that is just my view
  • #235
  • Jul 7, 2016 3:19am Jul 7, 2016 3:19am
Quoting verv
{quote} 1- that is a dangerous attitude, it belittles the Leave voters whether intentional or not. 17 million don't think it is an own goal, not long term anyway 2- what about the consequences that have already been inflicted on low skill British workers, who have had disproportionately bore the brunt of the mass immigration of millions of low skilled European migrants - dramatically increasing their competition for work and pushing down wages? That can never be undone. There is another side to this country, who aren't represented by the establishment,...
You allege its dangerous to be angry with the June 23rd decision and disrespectful and belittling of the 17 million Leave voters who chose that option. And that my position and that of my colleagues is predicated on self interest?
Dangerous? No what is Dangerous is this insane decision. That not only threatens the UK economy but also that of its 27 EU neighbors.
Theres a great line at the end of Cohen Bros FARGO movie.. there Marge says " all this and for what? " Well thats about how I feel.
I make no apology. I think the decision stinks.
And when I see the anxiety and insecurity already being caused by it in the lives and futures of the 1.3mio UK citizens living in the EU, and the 2-3 mio EU citizens lining and working in the UK I make no excuse for my anger. If you feel “belittled” by that challenge I got to question the fragility your convictions.

You appear to confuse the electorates right to decide, with the electorate making the right decision?
And rely on the argument that in that decision, the public is right ..right or wrong?
I profoundly disagree.
The public is an ass.

Yesterday the Chilcot report was published.
A critique of the decision to go to war in Iraq taken by the Government.
An example of a decision of far reaching consequence.
The Chilcot conclusions were basically that it was a very bad decision.
A the time there was some pressure for a plebacite on the decision?
Lets go back and imagine that had been put to a referendum at the time?
Check out the then prevailing public opinion environment and tell me that that the decision to go to war the basis of a plebiscite would have any been different? Categorically No.
So would a referendum have made the decision right?
No.

Good decision making through plebiscite is predicated on how informed the electorate is. And to wha extent cognitive distortion in the electorate is facilitated by factors like media bias, populist campaigning tactics, exploitation of fear xenophobia jingoism and exposure to unchallenged and widespread factual misrepresentations, the discrediting of expert opinion etc etc. These distortions in the the democratic process and lead inevitably to bad decision making. And I make no excuse for asserting that in IMHO, that is exactly whats happened here.
  • #236
  • Edited 5:36am Jul 7, 2016 4:20am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} You allege its dangerous to be angry with the June 23rd decision and disrespectful and belittling of the 17 million Leave voters who chose that option. And that my position and that of my colleagues is predicated on self interest? Dangerous? No what is Dangerous is this insane decision. That not only threatens the UK economy but also that of its 27 EU neighbors. Theres a great line at the end of Cohen Bros FARGO movie.. there Marge says " all this and for what? " Well thats about how I feel. I make no apology. I think the decision stinks....
You didn't address any of my 3 points, you just got angry and went off on one about the process. 17 million thought it was the right decision to leave. vs 16 million.

You appear to be suggesting now, that the election should not have been held in the first place. If you are annoyed at the tactics of the Leave camp, I assure you, that if you pull your head out of your own ass for 1 minute you would have seen that the Remain camp were up to the same stuff and yet you choose to ignore it.

This is how elections have been run.... since forever. The same 'facts', the same misrepresentation of those 'facts', the same blatant lies and the same soon to be broken promises.

Get over it, and you and your buddies need to get over yourselves.

You can have your opinion, and I can have mine.

Only with the fullness of time will we know if Leaving was the right decision.

The election has been won by the Leave camp, rightly or wrongly.

It's time to move on.
  • #237
  • Jul 7, 2016 4:27am Jul 7, 2016 4:27am
Quoting Exodus
{quote}+1 {quote}JC appears to be one of the few who actually feel for the voters. The rest carry a patriotic intent confused with a need to survive. IMHO the current elected Labour MPs represent a legacy of New Labour which embodies the imperialist thinking of Tony Blair (and others). @eurotrash, we are not actually out yet. There remains the necessity for an Act of Parliament to pursue the process beginning with notice under article 50; and therein lies another opportunity......
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} I think that JC is in touch with the new membership of Labour, but I don't think that he is in touch with the electorate at all. If I were to describe JC in a few words they would be red, communist, unionist poodle , weak, economically illiterate, 1970's throw back and unelectable. But that is just my view

JC is a communist, politically a dangerous man but I also believe that he was more in touch with the base which his party claims to represent, than most of his MPs.
  • #238
  • Jul 7, 2016 5:37am Jul 7, 2016 5:37am
Quoting verv
{quote} {quote} JC is a communist, politically a dangerous man but I also believe that he was more in touch with the base which his party claims to represent, than most of his MPs.
Have you all read this.?

http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000409700

and (http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000409700) its all Europe not just Britain. Done by the Germans.
  • #239
  • Jul 7, 2016 5:41am Jul 7, 2016 5:41am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} You allege its dangerous to be angry with the June 23rd decision and disrespectful and belittling of the 17 million Leave voters who chose that option. And that my position and that of my colleagues is predicated on self interest? Dangerous? No what is Dangerous is this insane decision. That not only threatens the UK economy but also that of its 27 EU neighbors. Theres a great line at the end of Cohen Bros FARGO movie.. there Marge says " all this and for what? " Well thats about how I feel. I make no apology. I think the decision stinks....
You regularly criticise the decision made by the electorate, but you fail to analyse the cause of the decision. It wasn't Farage or Gove or indeed Johnson who brought us to this point, it was the EU itself. Please stop blaming those who voted Leave, as they felt that they were left with no choice. You said "And when I see the anxiety and insecurity already being caused by it in the lives and futures of the 1.3mio UK citizens living in the EU, and the 2-3 mio EU citizens lining and working in the UK I make no excuse for my anger." But what about the "the anxiety and insecurity already being caused" to the 52+% of the UK population? Have you no compassion for them?
  • #240
  • Edited 5:58am Jul 7, 2016 5:47am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Sniper2000
{quote} Have you all read this.? http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000409700 and (http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000409700) its all Europe not just Britain. Done by the Germans.
Thanks. The generational gap is real.

I think the ability to move and travel within the EU freely, although a positive, really ranks right at the bottom when making decisions about the EU.

Yet that is what many young people immediately think of when asked about the EU - go ask the Irish passport office ha.

If a person's biggest problem with leaving the EU is having to get a visa to visit continental Europe, then that is what we call 'first world problems'.
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