The Really Useless Thread

A sad afternoon from Brussels, with Farange making a mockery of the UK & Europe and making a poor third world country show on his farewell session....

--> Politics in full control, with division and uncertainty in the UK. Today Labour party descending into chaos and with the most Londoner Rich and Privilege (Boris Johnson)as a front runner to lead the UK from the summer (who would have thought ...only those naive ones who voted 'against' the establishment last week...).

--> More importantly lots of noise coming from Europe before the talking heads leave the meeting. Strong rumours of EU leaders pretty much cornering powerless Cameron and leave no option to start negotiations right now or else.... Also German unofficial sources implying a Franco/German deadline for next week for the UK to get themselves together and leave ...

--> No confirmation yet, lots of talking heads as its usual in these meetings so expect tweets and contradictory comments depending on the audience...whatever the case, watch-out for a gloomy (or not announcement at all) as the UK doesn't have a functional government yet so tweets, and news expected any minute ...watch-out too for markets falling on inertia if European politicians disappoint in the next 24 hours ....

sisse

You and some of the ones who replied before are sweating it too much with this and looking it from the wrong angle. You are analysing this as market maker / scalper/ intraday talk and I ABSOLUTELY didn't mean that.

Don't sweat it. You are not interested in the actual flow on how large positions sell/buy or clear (who cares !!!) the important point to take into account is large funds maybe raising the bid in the EURO from large portfolios in March. This is a massive piece of information to take in consideration depending on your map, trading plan and FA in play of course.

Who cares, if they clear at 1.10 or 1.14 or if they pump and dump or do it in blocks, or how they do it or if they are holding spot, swaps, options or what have you .... this is one of the myths in these boards about 'intraday flows' and how MM, institutional traders, blah blah ...you are swinging proper ranges so forget about this non sense intraday talk.

IMO you wont get anywhere doing that... also in this topic: "don't miss the forest for the trees" as this information is just strongly hinting you that keep in an eye on the floor (in this case) is getting emptier and if you are sharp enough you can already pinpoint what would happen if the next support is taken and if you need to readjust (or not) positions soon...

sisse

Sisse, sorry, I did not post so much during this exiting times but I have a lot of study duties these days. However, watching carefully the discussions here!!!

Just one not that important Q: how is it that from a strictly technical perspective FTSE is looking in much better shape (in under short term post-Brexit lvl) than other european indicies like DAX for example? Maybe I have wrong lvls and its not so rosy but even just the size of the retrace is quite big.

1. First the UK was in a better shape than the EuroZone before the Brexit (until Q2 2016). It already implemented reforms, terrible cuts but fiscal budget on track, London booming, the rest of the UK on the verge of picking speed, and BOE getting ready to turn the page.
   1. ECB QE and Europe bouncing back had everything aligned for an extended and sustainable rally by year' s end with Europe pushing the world while US entered in elections and FED hikes....Markets short-circuited now with uncertainty and triggering game changer mid term legs.

   
   

2. Second, don't forget that Sterling got annihilated and it was a very very very sharp move that has triggering a short term and mainly short-lived Q3 max (Euro will start depreciating on tandem now) of companies squeezing 'out of the blue' the exchange rates gains on exports.

​​Don't forget we are just in the short term part of the impact which was always going to be the less important in size for equities (and the stronger in Sterling). We are eyeballing the huge implications in the mid and long term in the UK and Europe and thats where the money and problems are:

1. Obviously a depreciation of such large extend is very short term artificially good (its just a quick financial boost but with huge consequences for productivity in the mid and long term) but with a shock in the real economy. Only a miracle will save the UK going into recession next Q3/Q4 2017,

1. Backtracking in free trade with the largest trading partner with EU re negotiations

1. More importantly free trade agreement between Europe (EU) and the US is pretty much KILLED after the vote ...and on top

1. there are no less than 18 major trade agreements that the UK would have to review and/or renegotiate from Asia, Africa to South America ...the process will take no less than 2 or 3 years to prolly get back to the same as we have right now.

Point being thats exactly the main problem. Markets are short-circuiting in the UK (and in Europe in general) against expectations and markets ...and you know what that usually trigger? ... so if the UK lose foot in Equities in the next quarter or so, we'll go ballistic while the DAX (especially) will look a bit 'less' dovish than the FTSE ....

In the long run ...like it or not ...Rich Europe will pretty much be in the same level of development and economic sluggishness for the foreseeable future ...

sisse

Hmmm, superb. Cant wait to see first macro numbers after this bang. Once I have more time Im gonna post my mid term maps as this short term reaction settles down.

As you mentioned E/U - as I see the short term reaction will end soon but on mid term - there is something I dont get....

on USD side: we pretty much over with hikes in upcoming months =) mid term leg does not come from USD side driven by hikes. There is nothing else to do it, is there:

so it has to come from EUR side =) Brexit short term leg proves EUR is not carry trade any more (true??) =) time to catch up with interest rate differentials + post-brexit chaos guaranteeing economy wont really pick up in near and mid term??? - is that the FA drive behing next mid term leg we starting?

Is my logic right? Im using ur ideas of course. Just trying to summazize it for myself

As we discussed before Brexit. Euro will only be carry via soft risk and as long as is not in the middle of storm itself. For now we are still closer to panic than normal risk and the Euro / EZone is sitting in the eye of the hurricane for now so ...

sisse

sisse,

Bare with my ignorance as I want to be crystal clear here.....

"1. the important point to take into account is large funds maybe raising the bid in the EURO from large portfolios in March. This is a massive piece of information to take in consideration depending on your map,"

How are they raising the BID? Due to Selling? Outlook in EU is Sell and so raising the Bid to me means EU higher but that goes contradictory to FA and OUTLOOK. I am not clear on what you are trying to state about raising the BID....Price goes higher?

"2. Who cares, if they clear at 1.10 or 1.14 or if they pump and dump or do it in blocks, or how they do it"

I care only because you said that DAY candle close looked VERY VERY BEARISH last week when it was a BULLISH 35X pip candle. You determined there was loading or unloading going on in it. Remember?

"3. strongly hinting you that keep in an eye on the floor (in this case) is getting emptier and if you are sharp enough you can already pinpoint what would happen if the next support is taken and if you need to"

The floor of EU at .09XX and GU at .310X? Are they raising the bid to draw in buyers to dump and sell to next support of .073X in EU or target .21XX in GU? Is this what you are trying to get me to see?

I probably was wrong unloading the GU at .325X but I looked at possibly taking on another position to trade it if challenges .35XX or closer to .400X........if it doesn't, I will sell at the extreme .310X if it warrants it. In SELL OUTLOOK you SELL in MIDDLE and EXTREMES. INSIDE OUT.

lol mate ... let me put it in another way: VERY LARGE HANDS that were LONG are not or about to not be LONG anymore ...

sisse

Ok. I get it now. Thanks for not ripping me one for elementary questions. When I see the word BID, I think BUY and Raising the BID to me meant EU Higher. Maybe the word raising the stakes for strong MID TERM LEG (SHORT)

Thanks for your patience!

Movers and shakers coming...Euro triggering choose your poison time with a quadruple KEY D/W/M/Q 'roll play this week for the mid term so good time to update standing tables and opening next short term iteration for today's close.

Shorts in very healthy positions from the Brexit move while only Fadlh holding betting on a short squeeze... Standing table as per today (only showing those who have play in set 2):

Iteration 12

You snooze, you lose

update 2

(Elapsed Time 16 hours 2 days)

-> LMT STP SELL 1.120x [check] -> TP1 => 1.105x [check] | TP2 => 1.098x [check] | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

goosebone

Earleone

hoom

suntan

CommercialB

Iteration 13

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.111x++++

"Panic"

(Elapsed Time 12 hours 2 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.102x -> TP1 => 1.122x | TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

+++++Opening table for the 4th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market short term+++++

--> Question 14: Quarterly flows and summer coming, are the brexit flows over?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R. It's titled: "Knee jerk reaction or a trend change" and its aim to be a second example (the first one was in the first set) about trending and non trending markets.

--> Choose your poison ASAP. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all. Updates will come in later...

3 options for this iteration. No time limit for longs or shorts:

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++

""Knee jerk reaction or a trend change""

-> LMT BUY 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.118x | TP2 => 1.131x | TP3 => 1.141x | STP => 1.0980 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

-> No touch 1.118x / 1.098x (till W close)-> TP2 => 1.1280 | 1.088x (till noon NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

-> LMT SELL 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

sisse

No touch to validate if the trend is changing or not. Thanks!

In Neutral your TP2 doesn't seem right.

I need to wait on D/W/M/Q roll. NFP isn't until next week. We are in SELL OUTLOOK so you can SELL inside OUT- Middle and Extremes. Middle is around .117X which is close to NEUTRAL and the SELL is at .108X which is a good level as .097X is the rainmaker. I don't know.

I want to say NEUTRAL for the Week but I don't like the NFP target as if .097X is broken I believe it will go to .073X. Therefore, SELL looks good too just rather wait until .117X is hit to SELL.

These are my thoughts and not my trade yet!

Limit buy please

Thanks Fadhl ... the first one to jump is always the hardest ....

IN

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++

""Knee jerk reaction or a trend change""

-> LMT BUY 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.118x | TP2 => 1.131x | TP3 => 1.141x | STP => 1.0980 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

manosk

-> No touch 1.118x / 1.098x (till W close)-> TP2 => No touch 1.1280 | 1.088x (till noon NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

-> LMT SELL 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

PAStalker

pmmebids

@Imarich1 what target?

haha I wonder if that rectangle is secretly pointing to my mistake but really not the best round for me this time

lol ...no not really we all got caught on that one or the one after...


sisse

-> LMT SELL 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*
in aggressive sell short-term outlook..and your earlier posts

put me down for limit sell please