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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,521
  • Jun 27, 2016 4:21pm Jun 27, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting sisse
...and as in the EU, England out of the Euros through the backdoor ...watch-out the mood of the country start getting even gloomier by the day je je je ... Lots of noise coming tomorrow. Expecting jittery markets with talking heads in full control but more importantly inline or worst than expected US numbers and from the noise in the street some heavy hands in London will pull the plug in the Quarter .... sisse
Do you think the possibility of the FED reversing course and cutting rates exists due to EU instability?
  • #141,522
  • Jun 27, 2016 4:21pm Jun 27, 2016 4:21pm
On its own, the credit downgrades to the UK should not affect government borrowing costs or the value of sterling. However, in such skittish markets, it doesn't take much to open up a fresh wave of selling, so who knows.

In recent years, the US and Japan both had high profile downgrades:

- Financial chaos was predicted when S&P downgraded the US a notch down from AAA, yet the dollar rallied in the weeks following and yields on US Treasuries were unaffected.

- Japan, with a public sector debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%, faced no problems from being downgraded and today the yield on its 10-year paper stands at -0.19%.

In the case of the UK, a downgrade from S&P was telegraphed to the market on Friday, yet Gilt yields have continued to be crushed across all maturities, with the 10-year yielding a record low of 0.93%.

What Japan, the UK and US all have in common is having their own currency, a floating exchange rate and no public sector debt issued in a foreign currency. Therefore, solvency can never be in question.
  • #141,523
  • Jun 27, 2016 4:37pm Jun 27, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Do you think the possibility of the FED reversing course and cutting rates exists due to EU instability?
No not for July and prolly not at all in this economic cycle.

We'll need a major blow up in the global economy for the FED to backtrack ...not in the cards for the foreseeable future as per today....

Quoting gammase1
...Therefore, solvency can never be in question.
I don't think even the most bearish investor is calling for solvency issues in the UK. The downgrade by itself is only for the headlines mainly. The cuts have a marginal impact [if any] in term of solvency in public finance (hence the comparison with the net contribution to the EU).

However, in the current circumstances it just add pressure to politicians and to perceptions in investors and the general population which if not manage right it just keep adding short term fuel to a wild fire ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,524
  • Jun 27, 2016 4:42pm Jun 27, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No not for July and prolly not at all in this economic cycle. We'll need a major blow up in the global economy for the FED to backtrack ...not in the cards for the foreseeable future as per today.... {quote} I don't think even the most bearish investor is calling for solvency issues in the UK. The downgrade by itself is only for the headlines mainly. The cuts have a marginal impact [if any] in term of solvency in public finance (hence the comparison with the net contribution to the EU). However, in the current circumstances it just add...
Agree with that point, of the downgrade being potential fuel for a wild short fire - the market needs little excuse for selling right now.

In terms of financing costs, the downgrade should make no difference to the government's interest payments or its ability to find buyers for Gilts (the BOE can - and does - step in and do that). Nor should the downgrade, taken in isolation, have any negative effect on sterling.

It raises the question of what purpose do ratings agencies play for countries that issue (and borrow) in their own currencies and operate with floating exchange rates. Solvency can never be an issue.
  • #141,525
  • Edited 10:46pm Jun 27, 2016 10:03pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No not for July and prolly not at all in this economic cycle. We'll need a major blow up in the global economy for the FED to backtrack ...not in the cards for the foreseeable future as per today.... {quote} I don't think even the most bearish investor is calling for solvency issues in the UK. The downgrade by itself is only for the headlines mainly. The cuts have a marginal impact [if any] in term of solvency in public finance (hence the comparison with the net contribution to the EU). However, in the current circumstances it just...
Possible with downfall of EU....provided if there are other <insert country> exits. China still on the brink, Japan toxic as well.....

But yes, I'm looking too far out no way to trade such a thought
  • #141,526
  • Jun 28, 2016 2:13am Jun 28, 2016 2:13am
Watch-out large hands clearing Euro in the european opening. Politicians still in control in tweet mode trading until NY with markets in desperate need of good news from the US in the afternoon until then not much to see, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,527
  • Jun 28, 2016 4:01am Jun 28, 2016 4:01am
Some light rellief in these crazy markets LOL - is this life imitating art or was it all part of the plan?

Inserted Video
  • #141,528
  • Jun 28, 2016 6:36am Jun 28, 2016 6:36am
sisse or anyone, what does clearing Euro mean? Thanks
  • #141,529
  • Jun 28, 2016 6:43am Jun 28, 2016 6:43am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse or anyone, what does clearing Euro mean? Thanks
I understand it as taking profits . But I can be wrong.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,530
  • Jun 28, 2016 6:57am Jun 28, 2016 6:57am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse or anyone, what does clearing Euro mean? Thanks
Large long holding portfolios from March closing .sisse...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,531
  • Edited 7:49am Jun 28, 2016 7:21am | Edited 7:49am
Ok, so this would mean that closing a LONG would drive price UP as they are selling which creates buying to close the long. Is this correct or do I have it backward? Sorry for the ignorance even in these concepts.

To be transparent here:

I did close my GU SHORT from 1.400X at .3250. My concern was even though MID TERM is in play and this SHORT LEG (actually a LONG SHORT leg)of MID TERM and LONG TERM in Play, I saw price retesting 1.350X or 1.4000 area if we have bad US DATA. Perhaps, this was the wrong play but I banked 700 pips of a trade I held since March. Just time to regroup and get into the flows. I am still in EU at .0945 and .084X and would like to add to my position to average it out in case we don't get the RISK play to .070X for now. But, not taking a machine gun approach to it unless markets prove otherwise.

EDIT: US DATA inline and market doesn't appear to be reacting in EU or GU for news flows. Is this due to clearing LONGS and Profit Taking may see a turnaround today on GU and EU?

Looking to position for GU again around .35xx to .36XX where gap and a normal retrace of 50% to 61.8 on last move from .39XX to .311X. I may miss another move lower by closing my trade but I watched it go to .32XX back to .400X and am seeing another retrace in the making. This may be wrong but I not strong in scaling in and out in capital management on trades like this.
  • #141,532
  • Jun 28, 2016 7:48am Jun 28, 2016 7:48am
Quoting IMARICH1
I did close my GU SHORT from 1.400X at .3250. ... Perhaps, this was the wrong play but I banked 700 pips of a trade I held since March.
You had a short from 1.400x since March? and twice you had a chance to close it at B.E but didn't and held it through the Brexit risk even though there was a very good chance the remain was going to win? you were over a 1000 pips down!, how far were you planning to hold?

Never risk more than 1-2% of your account. I'm glad you finally closed it in profit.
  • #141,533
  • Edited 8:11am Jun 28, 2016 7:56am | Edited 8:11am
Vorex,

Yes, it was a bad position and twice it retraced back to 1.400X and every time I felt it was going to break thru and did not. Learned more than you know on this. I was absolutely wrong to watch price go that far away from my position; but, I was leveraged fairly well. It doesn't excuse it being a bad trade, bad Risk Management and poor decision making. However, I did not see the BREMAIN sending GU much past 1.52XX as EXHAUSTION.

OUTLOOK in GU in SHORT, MID and LONG TERM is SELL so this gave me the confidence to hold. Again, I am transparent here so everyone can see my faults and learn from them. My hide is getting more callous with the sisse lashings as I take one for the team. I am ready for him to tear into me here. But, that's how I learn.

But, I am looking mainly at the WEEKLY CLOSE which will show the way!
  • #141,534
  • Jun 28, 2016 8:12am Jun 28, 2016 8:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Large long holding portfolios from March closing .sisse...
if I may ask ... how do you see this? looking at the flow and based only on the experience or with other means (2nd level, etc)?
  • #141,535
  • Jun 28, 2016 8:18am Jun 28, 2016 8:18am
...a much needed slightly 'positive' news from the US. Markets in key Quarterly flows with all reports already cleared from the FA front. Expecting wide and noisy moves intraday for the rest of the week.

--> On the Brexit front, UK politicians in complete chaos and in a shameful show of vanity, lies, stupidity (from all sides) and lack of leadership. A very lame show for a country like the UK.

--> While EU counterparts flexing their muscle from Brussels with very noisy and strong comments against England but rather favourable about Scotland. However, things will change after the meetings are over as EU politicians returns to their countries and have to address their local voters that will force them to show a lot more restraint against the UK......

Nothing to update so far. We are still in tweet mode in that front.

On the rest its just key legs coming across all markets for the Quarterly flows that will in most cases last until US elections enter in the equation ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,536
  • Jun 28, 2016 9:29am Jun 28, 2016 9:29am
Good afternoon tradorians,peace and pips be upon all of you
I would like if possible to have your opinion/view on eur/chf in the short term,i find it hard to analyse,please Mr Sisse,Pharmor or anyone else can you enlighten a bit?
Thank you
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #141,537
  • Jun 28, 2016 9:57am Jun 28, 2016 9:57am
Quoting IMARICH1
Ok, so this would mean that closing a LONG would drive price UP as they are selling which creates buying to close the long. Is this correct or do I have it backward? Sorry for the ignorance even in these concepts.
Hmmm I thought it was the other way around: closing a long is indeed selling, but that just lowers the price because supply increases (more of something = value drops).
  • #141,538
  • Jun 28, 2016 10:01am Jun 28, 2016 10:01am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Hmmm I thought it was the other way around: closing a long is indeed selling, but that just lowers the price because supply increases (more of something = value drops).
I was hoping sisse would answer this. To me, I was thinking your way. But, then I remember someone saying if LONGS are being closed then this creates selling but in order to sell someone has to be buying right?
  • #141,539
  • Jun 28, 2016 10:59am Jun 28, 2016 10:59am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I was hoping sisse would answer this. To me, I was thinking your way. But, then I remember someone saying if LONGS are being closed then this creates selling but in order to sell someone has to be buying right?
It is not only speculating that leads to the exchange of currencies. Tourists, business all sorts of dealings leads to currencies beeing exchanged. Most participants of the market do not speculate at all. They have a need to exchange and do this at the offered price.

And for speculators, they have often divided opinions...
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #141,540
  • Jun 28, 2016 11:29am Jun 28, 2016 11:29am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I was hoping sisse would answer this. To me, I was thinking your way. But, then I remember someone saying if LONGS are being closed then this creates selling but in order to sell someone has to be buying right?
Buying decreases supply, pushing price up - selling does the opposite. Going long and closing shorts involve buying, shorting and closing longs involve selling. :-)
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