BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

Five weeks ago I started a thread to allow debate on the merits of the two cases..REMAIN and LEAVE in EU Referendum.
Here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=591272
(Is BREXIT a suitable subject for an FF members thread)

Yesterday the UK voters have spoken. And the UK has voted to LEAVE the EU.

So time now to accept this and move on and look now at the economic, market and econoPolitical consequences, intended and unintended as they play out after this historic democratic decision. So today this thread will look to bring this story forward and create a forum where these consequences good and bad , can be tracked and debated.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

Prime Minister to Resign
BBC News

Leadership challenge Labour Leader Corbyn.
BBC News

Spain demands shared sovereignty over GIBRALTAR, where 95.9% voted to remain in the EU.
source: MailOnline - Spanish Foreign Minister

"A second Referendum on Scottish Independence is now very likely.."
BBC News-First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon

Morgan Stanley has begun the process of moving 2,000 jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt following the vote for the UK to leave the EU.
Sources told the BBC on Friday that the process was already underway.
BBC News

French President of the Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region, and the Mayor of Calais have both called for immediate move of border from Calais to Dover.
"We will not continue to guard the border for Britain if it’s no longer in the European Union. ..the "Jungle" moves to Dover..

As the concept starts trickling in, Reuters offered us this

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-economy-factbox-idUSKCN0ZA0IJ?il=0

I personally believe it will be a long process.
The EU will meet next week to discuss the fallout, and after that a picture will become clearer of the future from their point of view.

So far the effect has been undeniable..GBP at 30 year lows, FTSE being hammered and Banks losing up to 30% in value in early trade.

I have no doubt it will calm down, and recover the shock..
But the uncertainty will be the issue from here out.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/farage-says-350million-nhs-pledge-was-a-mistake-5963794/
we will start second round for british freedom with Scotland referendum:
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/liveblogs/2016-06-22/#95d532cbba6ba39a7bf2780a081ee253

Totally agree with your statement above.

But there will be far reaching consequences to this decision. The can of worms has been opened.

Already S&P have said UKs AAA credit rating will likely be downgraded. This will affect the cost of borrowing/mortgages.
If the Pound doesnt stabilise the BOE may be forced to raise interest rates also.
Most financial commentators (see here (http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/brexit-make-mortgages-more-expensive-7987590)) expect property prices to drop in the event of Brexit.
Any or all of the above could put many home owners into negative equity. The consequences of that for many of them is obvious, especially if the economy performs poorly and unemployment rises.

If anyone reading this is a UK citizen and voted Remain in yesterday's referendum please sign this (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215) petition. Site appears to be down at the moment (because it is being overloaded) but keep trying.

Second referendum, what a joke. You can't change the rules after the fact just because you don't like the result. You can sign the petition all you like, but you lost the referendum, the country voted out, and that's that.

Then the talk of property prices dropping... as if that were a bad thing. By my observations, London house prices have gone up by 50-80% in the past few years. The sort of drop being predicted would put prices back what, to last years prices? Heaven forbid! It's already stupidly unaffordable for most, which is distinctly not beneficial for anyone other than those who can actually cash out on the prices rises, e.g. "investors", as home owners moving house will pay what they gained in prices rises to the owner of the house they're moving to, given that it will have risen as well. Price falls are equally inconsequential to most owners (except for the feel-bad factor), as they need to pay off the same amount of money on their mortgage regardless of whether the theoretical value of their house price has risen or fallen.

And making home ownership more affordable to first time buyers - not by some ridiculous schemes to temporarily subsidise the mortgage to allow someone to buy something they can't actually afford, and thereby continue to prop up the demand and prices, and not "affordable" only at the current interest rates - is a good thing. Remember also that the predicted fall in property prices is only relative to where they would be otherwise at that point in time. So it could well mean just a smaller rise than otherwise, rather than a fall. But an actual fall would certainly be good. London allegedly would be affected more than other areas, and I'm quite sure most people in London, homeowners or not, acknowledge that the current price levels are not a good thing.

And interest rates... don't make me laugh, no one is going to increase the rate to stabilize the pound. That's yesteryear's thinking. Crisis = lower rates, increase liquidity.

[quote=eurotrash;8999653]Second referendum, what a joke. You can't change the rules after the fact just because you don't like the result. You can sign the petition all you like, but you lost the referendum, the country voted out, and that's that.

Your friend Xenophobe Farage seemed to think before the referendum that if the vote was close it would be grounds to have a 2nd referendum, see here (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-previously-said-would-8273721). Surprise surprise he is keeping suspiciously quiet on that now!

[quote=eurotrash;8999653]Then the talk of property prices dropping... as if that were a bad thing.

I agree a graduated fall in property prices especially in London would be a good thing. In a worse case scenario if the economy goes into recession that fall in property prices could be much steeper which would be a bad thing for some homeowners, especially if they had big mortgages and interest rates rose.

[quote=eurotrash;8999653]And interest rates... don't make me laugh, no one is going to increase the rate to stabilize the pound

You are talking rubbish, ask any economist (or anyone with half a financial brain) if a currency is in freefall what is the first thing you would consider to help stop the freefall. Raise interest rates. Turkey did this in 2014 to stop freefall in the Lira see here (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-centralbank-rates-idUSBREA0R1W420140128).
Mark Carney (Governer of the Bank of England-if you didn't know) also mentioned in January that in the event of Brexit, he might have to raise interest rates due to the United Kingdom (soon to be little England) substantial current account deficit see here (http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-26/carney-warns-brexit-could-lead-to-interest-rate-rise/). You really need to do some homework.

[quote=theras2000;8999691][ (soon to be little England) substantial current


,,,oh ,,,,not another bitter Euorophile,,, rolls eyes!!!! We've left the dreaded EU ,,,,,get over it!!!! and we'll be just fine,,,and for the small country that we are ,,,,we sure have ruffled as few feathers lol lol

[quote=itsallover;8999699] It's actually Europhile not Euorophile and I am not believe it or not.

[quote=theras2000;8999711]
,,whatevs

,,,and maybe we don't mind the freefall of Sterling, just now, to help with our exports,,,, this is in line with the Brexit manifesto of creating jobs - without any interference from the EU mafia Brigade- no useless regulations,,,lol

,,,we can do this,,, we will do this,,,,, we're all excited by the endless opportunities awaiting us

[quote=itsallover;8999715] I have got to admit my FX accounts enjoyed the freefall of GBPUSD on Friday morning.

I hope it works, I really do. I want to move back to London in a couple of years so hopefully everything isin't fu...ed up.
A lower pound and lower house prices would be great from a personal perspective, but there is much more at stake than that.

I opted for brexit (even though im a spanish citizen). Having said that i see short term and long term implications.

Long term who knows, i would go as far as saying other countries referendums on the matter *could* occur depending on how well the current 27 evolve around britains exit.

Short term well obviously an immediate depreciation in buying power for the brits, especially for those wanting to go abroad on holiday or maybe even move away from britain. Yesterday i was talking to a mate (real estate agent) who already had deals fall through from brits purchasing overseas property. Not to mention the immediate 'fear' from the mass population as to the uncertainty it could create as a nation vs. europe.

Personally i think long term its favourable, but like anything there exists growing pains and in the short term there will be plenty of that, both inland and overseas (think tourism spending being reduced).

Where i live red tape is a wonderful word our government loves and thrives on, well i expect them to make things even more awkward for the expats here.

My eyes are purely on Gibraltar.

[quote=theras2000;8999743] Well good for you theras2000 ,,, I kept away from the market but I do wish I'd put a teeny lot for that GU trade. Pure class.

I can't guarantee property prices in London behaving themselves tho' ,,, but our economy is going to take off in a very serious way. And it will attract entrepreneurs from EU who are otherwise restricted by the burdensome EU Regs

We should just holiday at home until Sterling is on solid ground,,,,, was reading about some penniless Brits stranded on holiday because no one wanted Sterling ,,,lol

Unforeseen problems like that will be commonplace unfortunately.
Here (http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-mail-has-explained-what-brexit-means-and-its-readers-seem-shocked--Z1772TI4aNW) is an example of unforeseen problems that some of The Daily Mail (pro-Brexit) readers found out about after the vote, because TDM didn't spell it out for them before the vote.

,,,not for very long it won't ,,,,,

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Saturday, Jun 25th 2016 7PM 16C 10PM 12C 5-Day Forecast (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/weather/index.html)
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'A very British apocalypse it was over by tea time!' Ukip brushes off tales of doom as the pound rallies and businesses vow to adapt despite initial turmoil when Brexit was announced

1. FTSE100 suffered one of biggest falls in history - losing more than 100bn
2. But by close on Friday seven per cent fall was narrowed to 2.7 per cent
3. 'Hours later the FTSE and the pound rallied as Mark Carney offered 250bn
4. Fall in the pound could lead to a 'windfall' for exporters selling UK goods
5. Commenting on the fightback, Ukip's Suzanne Evans says it 'wasn't a bad first day of freedom'
6. She points to calm from business leaders, global politicians and denials by JP Morgan over claims it is moving 2,000 jobs to the EU

By Matt Dathan, Political Correspondent For Mailonline (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?s=&authornamef=Matt+Dathan,+Political+Correspondent+For+Mailonline) and Hugo Duncan And James Salmon (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?s=&authornamef=Hugo+Duncan+And+James+Salmon)
Published: 23:42, 24 June 2016 | Updated: 13:54, 25 June 2016
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A leading Ukip figure brushed off fears of economic turmoil after the stock market staged a dramatic fight-back, the pound rallied and a major bank denied reports it was planning to move 2,000 jobs abroad following the dramatic Brexit vote (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/eu_referendum/index.html).
Summing up yesterday's events, Suzanne Evans, a prominent Vote Leave campaigner and Ukip spokesperson, wrote on her Facebook: 'If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom.'
The about-turn in the markets was sparked by the Bank of England pledging to do whatever it takes to prevent a full-blown financial crisis.
In the hours after the Brexit vote (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/eu_referendum/index.html), the pound plunged to a 31-year low, and the FTSE 100 index sank 550 points or 8.7 per cent in a matter of minutes yesterday morning.
But the stock market clawed back more than half its losses as the day wore on, before closing down 3.2 per cent or 199.41 points at 6138.69.
The blue-chip index of leading British companies finished the week 2 per cent higher than it started, despite warnings of catastrophe following Brexit.
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1. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/24/07/0064C8A700000258-0-image-m-3_1466750049570.jpg Money live blog: Market reactions to the referendum result... (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3657815/World-s-DIY-recession-Pound-crashes-shares-tumble-EU-vote-result.html)http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/24/07/359D27FE00000578-0-image-a-7_1466751085377.jpg 'The world's first DIY recession?' Top fund manager warns... (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3659281/Why-hard-s-Cameron-told-aides-d-quit-spend-six-months-working-Brexit-hand-rival.html)http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/25/00/359D6D8A00000578-0-image-m-22_1466810390426.jpg 'Why should I do the hard s***?' Cameron 'told aides he'd... (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3658671/This-vote-doesn-t-represent-younger-generation-live-consequences-Millennials-fury-baby-boomers-voting-Britain-EU.html)http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/24/17/35A1018F00000578-0-image-m-75_1466787542268.jpg 'This vote doesn't represent the younger generation who will...

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Business groups, many of which had campaigned for a Remain vote, said the British economy was flexible enough to adapt to the Brexit vote and resilient enough to stave off economic shocks.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and the Institute of Directors warned politicians not to rush into decisions that will 'affect generations to come'.

Fears over international isolationism were also short-lived as President Obama said the 'special relationship' between the US and Britain was still intact.
Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, said negotiations with Britain would be conducted in an 'orderly way' to avoid 'prolonged uncertainty'.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/25/09/2626440900000578-3659225-image-a-4_1466845158749.jpg
+13
Summing up yesterday's events, Suzanne Evans, a prominent Vote Leave campaigner and Ukip spokesperson, wrote: 'If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom'
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/24/16/35A1638900000578-3657238-image-m-108_1466783807465.jpg
+13
Drop: The FTSE 100 fell off a cliff on Friday morning - down almost 8% - as Britain's vote for Brexit became clear - but hours later it rallied towards the levels of last week

Claims by the mayor of Calais that the city's migrant camps would transfer to England were also dismissed by the French President Francois Hollande.

Fears of mass job losses were also quickly quashed after the American investment bank Morgan Stanley denied initial speculation that it was considering shifting 2,000 jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt.
POUND RALLIES AFTER CRASHING TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/25/10/35A57A3900000578-3659225-image-a-5_1466846257937.jpg
The pound recovered to 1.36 US dollars after slumping to 1.33 as the EU referendum results came through
The pound rallied last night after crashing to its lowest level in 30 years following Britain's dramatic decision to quit the EU.
Sterling plunged 10 per cent against the dollar overnight to 1.33 US dollars, a low not seen since 1985, as the Leave campaign clinched victory.
The fall, which settled at 9 per cent in afternoon trading, represents one of the biggest daily falls on record for a major currency.
Sterling recovered to 1.36 US dollars later in the afternoon.
British fund manager Neil Woodford, who looks after more than 14billion of savers' cash, played down fears over the impact of Brexit and said the fall in the pound would result in a 'windfall' for exporters.
David Buik, an analyst at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, blamed the initial economic turbulence following the Brexit vote on the 'apocalyptic hysteria whipped up by the Establishment' prior to the referendum.
'They are responsible for a large portion of the fall in the value of the pound and share prices,' he said.


A spokesman for the bank said there were no immediate plans to make changes and said it would wait until Britain had secured a new relationship with Europe before deciding on long-term restructuring.
'The UK's vote to leave the European Union is a very significant decision which will have a considerable impact, the extent of which will not be known for some time,' the spokesman said.
'There will be at least a period of two years before an actual exit takes place, so there will be time to implement any changes required to adjust our business to the new environment.
'Morgan Stanley will continue to monitor developments very closely and will adapt accordingly while prioritising the interests of our clients, our shareholders and our employees,' the spokesman added.
British fund manager Neil Woodford, who looks after more than 14billion of savers' cash, played down fears over the impact of Brexit and said the fall in the pound would result in a 'windfall' for exporters.
Stock markets in Europe fared far worse than the FTSE with Frankfurt down 6.8 per cent, Paris 8 per cent and Milan and Madrid more than 12 per cent. Sterling stabilised after early trading falls. At one point, the pound was down more than 10 per cent to a 31-year low of $1.3232. But it was later trading at around $1.37, down 8 per cent.
As fears over the economy wiped more than 20billion off the value of Britain's biggest banks, David Buik, an analyst at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said: 'We are seeing the results of the apocalyptic hysteria whipped up by the Establishment.
'They are responsible for a large portion of the fall in the value of the pound and share prices.'
Bank of England governor Mark Carney pledged to pump an extra 250billion of emergency funds into the financial system. In a sign the central bank could cut interest rates in coming months, he said: 'The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.'
Analysts said the Bank could cut rates to zero in the coming months having frozen them at 0.5 per cent since March 2009. Mr Carney warned that 'market and economic volatility can be expected' but said the financial system remains 'resilient'.
But households, businesses and investors were warned of further volatility next week as the fallout of the vote continued.

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The Brexit victory is a huge problem for the Islamic conquest of Europe knowingly or unknowingly started by Angela Merkel.
*Islamic as a political movement, not the religion
No one will know the horror that has been avoided. But we can only look at what is happening in some countries for insights ..

I believe this by far to be the biggest flaw of a top down system,,,,,, we certainly dodged that bullet

I think they already have a firm foot hold in the UK, for instance the current Mayor of London is Moslem, it's not just immigration from the EU, Moslem people migrate from all over, even from my country.