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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,461
  • Edited 8:39am Jun 24, 2016 8:29am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} looks as though England will become an economic island all to themselves, just like they wanted. A leper. Quite literally the rest of UK already looking at second referendums to go back to EU
Quoting change
{quote} the man who broke two unions in one shot!
Northern Ireland, Scotland and London Vs England and Wales
but also Young people Vs Old people : I read that three-quarters of young people have voted remain (theguardian).
  • #141,462
  • Jun 24, 2016 8:31am Jun 24, 2016 8:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,463
  • Jun 24, 2016 8:38am Jun 24, 2016 8:38am
With most european leaders saying their disappointed but are confident in the EU & US rate hikes this year probably off the table, would we return to a neutral short-term outlook?...or is there too much risk still in-play?
  • #141,464
  • Edited 8:51am Jun 24, 2016 8:40am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting 2046
{quote}I can't help but feel disappointed and somewhat shaken by implied uncertainties the sociopolitical effect this may have on Europe and beyond.
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} looks as though England will become an economic island all to themselves, just like they wanted. A leper. Quite literally the rest of UK already looking at second referendums to go back to EU
As I'm mentioned earlier during the counting, it's a sad day for Europe and great day for little England.

-> Well thats the power of democracy and its limitation too. +16Mill vote for one thing and the other 16Mill plus a little a few thousand more vote for the other.

Thats how democracy works. Sounds unfair maybe that such small difference can have such huge impact in the rest but democracy, flaw as it is, its is what it is as sadly we haven't discover a better system yet.

Sure 75% of the young population that is active in the working force got overrule but a very slightly bigger majority of older folks who were probably wont be affected as in economic terms about the short term impact of the vote.

Sure between London, Scotland and the other large urban areas in the UK produce +70% of the the UK GDP vote nearly 80% to stay in but got overrule by 51% of the rest of the country that only produce 25% of the GDP but vote 80% of the votes to go out ....and we can go forever...that is democracy.

...that is the power and limitation of democracy in a great textbook example in a liberal free democracy.

--> If we are going to be purist about 'democracy' i will say, yeah lets London have a referendum to stay in the EU as we mostly in favour and leave little England by themselves outside and yeah lets get N.. Ireland and Scotland the same and etc... You see its hard to argument like that as we will descend in anarchy rather quickly as you can keep digging deeper and deeper in each individual group (my council in London is better that yours, so let me do this in the name of democracy, etc, etc )...and it will never end.

--> Point is, 1.5% more of the voters has spoken and won despite who will be affected more or less in this in economic terms. The government has collapsed and we just trigger Europe to flirt with disintegration and protectionism ....

Its a step backward in history and progress in my view and against the best economic interest of the UK (if the UK still exists in 2 or 3 years with Scotland potentially triggering the whole internal problem),Europe and in general the World.....but thats SADLY the price we all pay one way or the other of the flaws in democracy.

-----

NY to digest a rather upside down and messy board in 24 hours. Expecting confusion and basically trying to realign short term charts and expectations ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,465
  • Jun 24, 2016 9:15am Jun 24, 2016 9:15am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Ha ha, I'll eat my hat sisse! ...everything else you say is probably spot on as usual!
"sisse
Strong rumours of Cameron resigning as early as this morning .."

The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,466
  • Jun 24, 2016 9:27am Jun 24, 2016 9:27am
I don't know- I still cannont fathom the CB's and those in power allowing the split. Although Cameron is already ejected....perhaps it will happen.

Still it's only a vote thus far...
  • #141,467
  • Jun 24, 2016 10:06am Jun 24, 2016 10:06am
No surprise London voted to remain:

"PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that Brexit could cost between 70,000-100,000 financial services jobs by 2020."

http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/london-brexit-jobs/
  • #141,468
  • Jun 24, 2016 10:07am Jun 24, 2016 10:07am
Markets finally talking a small breather after the shock with heavy support from CBs especially the BOE that barely manage to avoid a carnage of epic proportions in financial stocks in the morning but the outlook and charts in most sectors look rather scary for today European close and we may need a lot more artificial support to avoid going down too fast and in panic.

US a bystander of Europe in turmoil and they haven't yet make a move on the risk front. Today's news pretty much killed FED hikes July and bastards are holding on that but it looks that they wont hold for much longer as the snowball of implications of today's news is stating to come in slow but rather huge waves in the horizon.

Eyes on the European close as if NY decide to raise the bid and joint the party in risk/sell off mode we may end up with rather sharp negative closes for the week that will extend until G7 CBs announce stronger coordinate action. S&P losing 2052.xx today will be more than telling and will unlock a v. tradable test 1965.xx as early as next week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,469
  • Jun 24, 2016 10:10am Jun 24, 2016 10:10am
Quoting change
No surprise London voted to remain: "PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that Brexit could cost between 70,000-100,000 financial services jobs by 2020." http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/london-brexit-jobs/
yep as I mentioned a few days ago in my post

Quoting manosk
{quote} Disclosure: I am not British and i dont care either way for the Brexit vote but I have been in the market for a long time and I have seen a thing or two, having experienced a few financial crises closely, as a trader in the banking sector, and having lived in several European cities, among them London. After Sep 11, what saved the UK was that all the American banks relocated from Frankfurt to London, which was a virtual ghost town at the time with plenty of office space available for rent. That created a trend that forced European and Asian...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,470
  • Jun 24, 2016 10:44am Jun 24, 2016 10:44am
We got a bit behind and out of synch with the iterations as you can imagine after the Mega Monster moves we got overnight but now all settle and ready to go :

====> Contest 11. One flawless winner IMARICH1 and one nearly perfect trade glassblower ...those were before the vote. Well done.

Quoting sisse
...++++ Update 5 Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 0 hours 4 days) ->

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.110x++++

Final update

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 12 hours 7 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 [check] | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

glassblower (closed before vote 1.141x)

ptoftangency (stopped out 1.123x on the last one)


No touch (for 3 days) [check] TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x [check] and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x [check] | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1



====> Contest 12. This was very interesting one as it was the BREXIT flow play. Well done all bears and those who traded live as it was an epic night.It was as the tittle suggested you snooze you lose

Quoting sisse
.... Table for iteration 2 still opening but we may not get much time left today ....so feel free to jump in as long as entries are not trigger or the table is closed. IN ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.125x++++ You snooze, you lose -...

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.111x++++


You snooze, you lose

update1

(Elapsed Time 18 hours 0days)


-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP1 => 1.145x | TP2 => 1.1520 | | TP3 => 1.1750 | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

chester123

Pharm0r

Pixie666

Fadhl

Replicant

clayjay

kasper

Fisher755

Grinsakh

ptoftangency

LiquidGenius

eborn

glassblower

workingforex

Red Pirate

primejarvis

Vorex



-> LMT STP SELL 1.120x [check] -> TP1 => 1.105x [check] | TP2 => 1.098x [check] | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

goosebone

Earleone

hoom

suntan

CommercialB


​

====> Contest 13. And finally the last one minutes before BOE stepping in the markets and in a very unconventional time of the day as we were in panic mode.

Only Fadhl didn't get caught in the BOE and some others didn't wanted to jump without a retrace (good call). For the rest of us:

Nothing to say. Just the cost of doing business, it was the right call in my books to go short on panic on the quick break of key support especially with all markets in mega moves at the same time. BOE put the hand break and that was it. Nothing else to analyse.

Question 13A only for Fadhl How would you manage the position?

1. Sit tight. 'This is going up via CBs' same targets
2. I am not sure. 'I better close all not sure whats going on' clear @1.111x
3. I changed my mind. 'Euro is going down with the UK going down' Take Profit and play the reverso to the short targets

If you don't answer its assume you stay put


++++Currently Euro is trading 1.111x++++

"Panic"

(Elapsed Time 10 hours 0days)


-> LMT BUY 1.102x -> TP1 => 1.122x | TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl


-> LMT SELL 1.102x -> TP1 => 1.092x | TP2 => 1.062x | STP => 1.112x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Pixie666

workingforex

IMARICH1

eborn

chronical

goosebone

mayafx

toftangency


Lots of new data and trading opps across the board so updates later.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,471
  • Jun 24, 2016 11:24am Jun 24, 2016 11:24am
...and Europe going home in an Epic day (I am exhausted too after pulling such wild all-nighter) but these are the days any trader or aspiring trader MUST have under its belt and you just need to love what you doing to understand this....

It was a sensational day to say the least with amazing moves but as usually in days like this, the actual blotter doesn't really match the extend of the moves. A rather mediocre and average day in terms of trading results here ....

--> On the market front. European equities closing very bearish and they are only managing to barely hold a major break down via artificial support from CBs. A tiny push from the US can trigger it (doubt it today as US will let Europe find a short term floor by themselves first).

--> Like always no break no shake and as long as we hold... the same levels in play in DAX, CAC and FTSE and I wont be trigger SHY AT ALL in firing on a slight slide as both FA and TA are aligned ....until then same levels, same plays, same all there.

--> The complete annihilation in Sterling was so large (31 years low) that we pretty much killed most of any short term moves for the next few weeks. The 2009 lows 1.350x are going to hold today and as long as they do ....any pullback will be sold but also squeeze up as there is literally nobody in the 5 handles above and 5 handles below the current level.

--> The mid term target swing is pretty much completed TAwise (in only 10 hours !!!! lol) but don't forget that we also have a long term in play. I doubt the long term swing will trigger until later this year as we'll have strong support from the BOE, new government coming in October and the whole disaster re negotiations later.

The only options to a further sell off is via risk (we are officially in Lehman/2008 environment were sharp shocks can be expected any minute)with UK Equities entering in panic mode in the next few weeks or via political risk (EU noise but more than probable Scottish referendum and all that).

--> Euro and Dollar obviously held steady during the panic moves as they are the only 2 major currencies that the whole world run to safety in the very short term from all asset classes but this will dramatically change in the next few days as we start finding foot in Sterling and Yen.

There is so much to talk and trade after today that will take a few days to digest and reorganise trading workspace and flows only ....until then we'll play it by ear in this thread ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,472
  • Jun 24, 2016 11:27am Jun 24, 2016 11:27am
I opt for "Sit tight" taking into consideration no hike in July and Central Banks will stabilize markets.
  • #141,473
  • Edited 12:32pm Jun 24, 2016 11:49am | Edited 12:32pm
analyssis. sisse,

I am so transparent here and appreciate the compliments on my call but I'm not a good trader yet. Here is why. I should have closed my GBP at 3200 and EU 0900. But I was a dick for a tick. I playing the panic play and figured NY WOULD finish this run today back to test SUPPRT at least at .326x . Why not? Was positioning for the potential move to .21xx. So I am still in my trades. Stupid!!! I figured being in at 1.400x in with a Sell Outlook Mid and Long term would be stupid to close being 700 pips up and now only 400.

My Eu was still at a loss as one lot at .0845. Anyways, I looked for at least another test to .3200 and .0806 but perhaps not w CB intervention. Just wanted to share so others see my issue.

I have come to learn w everything in life my main problem is I hold on to long and don't let go due to my belief that this is weak in character and one should endure. I did this w my marriage, relationships, jobs and even my artistic drawings. I don't know when to let go and start over. Prob shared more than matters here. Good luck to all of you trading these moves and thanks sisse for your awesome analysis!!!! Further, I should have closed some and let the rest run. Suck at managing a winning trade too. Lots to learn or lose. My choice.
  • #141,474
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:00pm Jun 24, 2016 12:00pm
...uff ...one more time...and this must be the last one today for god sake ...US equities triggering imminent break down alerts on S&P losing and rather easy 1950.xx ...last chance for a clean sweep today with potential panic from the US to the US overnight lows and way beyond...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,475
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:48pm Jun 24, 2016 12:48pm
...and that was pretty much it for the day. 'Roll' play for today in the Euro, UJ and OIL for those looking for entries in the swings while S&P losing 2052,xx unlocks 1936.xx in a rather fast leg.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,476
  • Jun 24, 2016 1:09pm Jun 24, 2016 1:09pm
Closing week here with Brexit confirmed and so far every single domino as was expected and discussed in case of brexit has fallen one by one (i hope I am wrong on the mid term impact as otherwise this is going to get very nasty in a few months).

--> First were jitters, Yen triggered the early signals both in the edit polls and in the exit, Sterling just got blown out of the map triggering a WTF moment in the market as obviously was the case, then Equities started to flirt on entering in panic with a carnage in financial stocks in the UK with political vacuum with Cameron resining...until one more time CB (BOE, SNB and G7 CBs preemptive talk) saved the day and put a hard stop on panic spreading...

The rest of the day was just lots of noise and politic waves as it was widely expected.

--> On the sad part and triggering my worst fears on this result, by the afternoon the worst fears start spreading with the 'scumbag' of Europe and the world took advantages as expected of the vote with NeoNazis, extreme right parties and all that making lots of noise for EU and Europe disintegration from Austria, to Holland, France and Belgium calling for separation and etc....

--> Then while the UKIPERS were still in dreamland after the incredible victory, the Tory party enter in internal revolt and the true colours of the politicians that where behind Brexit start appearing but more importantly Scotland (expected key domino on Brexit) pretty much announcing they are going to play politics fliritng with a Referendum to leave the UK...

--> We ended the day with all major nationalistic and populist parties in Europe entering with force in the political map and less that 12 hours we got already Spain nationalistic parties calling to take over Gibraltar as the UK is not anymore in the EU, and tax British retired home owner in France, etc....more soap opera to come but as long as the dominos keep falling we wont be able to find a decent floor in the markets ...

I think the best way to wrap today result and week comes from twitter:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,477
  • Jun 24, 2016 1:10pm Jun 24, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the day. 'Roll' play for today in the Euro, UJ and OIL for those looking for entries in the swings while S&P losing 2052,xx unlocks 1936.xx in a rather fast leg. sisse
Today's dust is atleast settled for today but we might get some reaction before weekly close... What's your next flip level ... And any expectation right now for the next Quarter ... What reaction to expect from E/u pair after the massive blow on a quite mid/long term run ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,478
  • Jun 24, 2016 1:26pm Jun 24, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting sisse
...uff ...one more time...and this must be the last one today for god sake ...US equities triggering imminent break down alerts on S&P losing and rather easy 1950.xx ...last chance for a clean sweep today with potential panic from the US to the US overnight lows and way beyond... sisse
let's see. well done last night . I had basically no sleep, but totally worth the effort.

next week is key and it looks like there will be pressure from the EU heads to start negotiations ASAP. lots of divided power heads, so lots of noise coming up...
  • #141,479
  • Jun 24, 2016 3:51pm Jun 24, 2016 3:51pm
For those still in the market ....last minute news coming before the roll. Strong words from Brussels to 'kick out' the UK as soon as possible starting in July and not October ....

EU is aligning for a strong response on the vote, on top large spontaneous crowds in London and Scotland protesting against Brexit and asking for a new Referendum in Scotland ...if Brussels trigger the thread is the next domino in line....

Point being watch-out for a runaway gap in the weekend on risk for those holding longs in Euro or GU (I hope not anyone) ...here sitting tight and decided to go for the risk play....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,480
  • Jun 24, 2016 4:01pm Jun 24, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting sisse
Point being watch-out for a runaway gap in the weekend on risk for those holding longs in Euro or GU (I hope not anyone) ...here sitting tight and decided to go for the risk play.... sisse
get some sleep bro, have a good weekend...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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