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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,381
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:16pm Jun 23, 2016 10:16pm
...and the final and Key updates are GAME CHANGERs that will be reconfirmed with the official announcement of exit in just a few minutes ...

--> Changing mid and long term outlook in UK Equities from Neutral to Sell

--> Changing mid term outlook in European Equities from Neutral to Sell

--> And obviously changing short term outlook in World Equities including the US from neutral to strong sell as long as panic is in the air and CBs are sidelined.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,382
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:17pm Jun 23, 2016 10:17pm
Quoting sisse
I expect a very very moving opening in Europe. As soon as the exit is officially confirm will find a soft floor but Cameron first resining and after there is a strong chance of CB coordinate action.
I'm a spectator, as all my open trades are in US equities, so I must wait til the NY open to see what's what with my trades. I have some weekly things coming off Friday, but much more for Jul 01 and Jul 15, and then even quite a lot of the most intriguing possibilities all the way out til Sept. I will prolly just go flat if we see a huge ^VIX spike, but coming off a deep ^vix rout (just hours ago!!) we may need a week to ram it up to the highs.

Would you care to prognosticate about the mid-term, say, til the Jul FOMC?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,383
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:18pm Jun 23, 2016 10:18pm
we breeched .3500 and 2009 lows. But, how do you trade this move? You wait for a bounce or stay put in it. I'm in at .400x.
I am worried this is a rumor and somehow a miscalculation whether political bred or not surfaces. And, it's a remain. I don't trust these things at all. Sadly, I've been in since March so Congrats NOT due. It was a bad trade I stayed in. Horrible call on my part. But, now it's to my advantage and I must play it correctly.
  • #141,384
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:21pm Jun 23, 2016 10:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
we breeched .3500 and 2009 lows. But, how do you trade this move? You wait for a bounce or stay put in it. I'm in at .400x. I am worried this is a rumor and somehow a miscalculation whether political bred or not surfaces. And, it's a remain. I don't trust these things at all.
Birmingham result just in also pointing towards Brexit ....
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,385
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm
Its done... i as a eu citinzin am shocked...
  • #141,386
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm
...as sisse said ..just look at the currency charts ..they're all telling the same story at the moment ...
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,387
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:27pm Jun 23, 2016 10:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I'm a spectator, as all my open trades are in US equities, so I must wait til the NY open to see what's what with my trades. I have some weekly things coming off Friday, but much more for Jul 01 and Jul 15, and then even quite a lot of the most intriguing possibilities all the way out til Sept. I will prolly just go flat if we see a huge ^VIX spike, but coming off a deep ^vix rout (just hours ago!!) we may need a week to ram it up to the highs. Would you care to prognosticate about the mid-term, say, til the Jul FOMC?
Well the amazing moves we witnessed today (and in the next few hours) are just the knee jerk reaction that we expected from Brexit triggering panic (which are absolutely AMAZING but mostly untradable)...

For the mid term is very tricky right now because its a GAME CHANGER.

 

  1. Meaning at least in the very shorter term, markets and real money will need to digest the stupidly wild moves and new levels (Europe hasnt even open yet ...uff).

  1. Second we'll need to see the short term reaction of the CBs across the world as Sterling went out of the world, Yen collapsed and Euro are dollar on the verge of macro moves are something to track very closely. CB will make policy decision on this and the latest moves just triggered CB levels only.

  1. Third the political upheaval is massive as first UK government out but the contagion in the EU can be cathastropic. Meaning it will have a global impact.

  1. Fourth and without further data but just this expectations. The odds of FED July hikes just plummeted to almost 0 today and more importantly to below 20% for a hike this year (this will bounce a bit once the knee jerk reaction is pass).

  1. Fifth and the main issue here is that if global markets collapse in the next few days. Equities may lose -%15 or more (especially in the UK) in just a few sessions which means the mid term becomes very 'far' relative to the Monster movers in play in the short term, ....i wouldnt look that much in details on the mid term on the middle of the knee jerk reaction as aI said is a game changer ....


All eyes are on the next few sessions but if the massacre in currencies translate in a massacre in global markets ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,388
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:36pm Jun 23, 2016 10:36pm
thanks, mate. best of luck to you weathering the storm, in all respects...I hope you had a sawbuck or two short the pound...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,389
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:42pm Jun 23, 2016 10:42pm
ı told you
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  • #141,390
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:57pm Jun 23, 2016 10:57pm
I wonder what the odds of central bank intervention tomorrow / next week are...
  • #141,391
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:58pm Jun 23, 2016 10:58pm
Gdnite all, knackered ..thanks again sisse & well done again imarich1!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,392
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:07pm Jun 23, 2016 11:07pm
Right... traded the event via eurusd with a 50 pip difference stack pyramid. I closed all shorts and remaining short stops at this moment because I fear the CB interventions. All triggered quite peacefully without noticable slippage (ecn).

*edit: what a sad day by the way! Ego and short term thinking above unity.
  • #141,393
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:09pm Jun 23, 2016 11:09pm
WTF - Told ya we were masochists - I just heard that Uk has a new bank hol on 23rd June - Independence day lol

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  • #141,394
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:16pm Jun 23, 2016 11:16pm
...don't see things dropping much more now, slight rise till European markets open. Personally I don't expect any more great falls than we've already seen during the night (Jeez they were massive!) ..most likely a retrace after the over-reaction and then we'll see where the big money money is aligning ...oh yay! ...interesting times !
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,395
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:21pm Jun 23, 2016 11:21pm
how bout that - the move you plan on riding and lasting months occurs in a single night.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #141,396
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:23pm Jun 23, 2016 11:23pm
Quoting CommercialB
...don't see things dropping much more now, slight rise till European markets open. Personally I don't expect any more great falls than we've already seen during the night (Jeez they were massive!) ..most likely a retrace after the over-reaction and then we'll see where the big money money is aligning ...oh yay! ...interesting times !
I agree, interesting times. Isn't this fadeable though? I mean the votes still need to be counted. Or am I missing something here?
  • #141,397
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:25pm Jun 23, 2016 11:25pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} I agree, interesting times. Isn't this fadeable though? I mean the votes still need to be counted. Or am I missing something here?
...result now seems like a done deal ...
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,398
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:26pm Jun 23, 2016 11:26pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} ...result now seems like a done deal ...
...and of course, everything is fadeable!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,399
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:35pm Jun 23, 2016 11:35pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} ...result now seems like a done deal ...
Hmm yeah but what about next step, the actual leaving. Are the officials really forced to take the step that's decided in the referendum? Or will they be able to drag it out, making things more moderate etc...?
  • #141,400
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:47pm Jun 23, 2016 11:47pm
trading halted on /es
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