The Really Useless Thread

yellen has been battered for hours ..bless her

Now some serious speaking.

EURUSD BUY @1.1280, SL @1.1265, TP1 @1.1298, TP2 1.1318.

One more added to the ignored list.

Dude, you must have lost a lot of money recently if you have so much frustration in you otherwise, I cant explain

Both levels are applicable that I was talking abt 1.20 or 1.02 ... Let's c what happens ... 1.20 is much appreciated from my view but not tomorrow atleast till Q4 2016 ...

What happened? I went to bed in college and woke up in middle school? Dude, Jure, Sisse just answered your question. He posts his bias after table closed, what more could you be asking for? There is a lot to learn from him and some others on this thread. Just go through back posts and catch up, drop the edge a lil, and enjoy the ride.

Many of the non sense have joined the tread .... If it continues sooner or later it will the next Eurusd thread ...

I wonder how much math I would have learned as a kid if my teacher walked in, wrote 2+2=4 on the board and left. Or if my film arts professor just told me "It's a sled". I don't want the answer to the question asked by the iterations. I want to obtain the ability to find it on my own. Petulant poster ignored.

Well Said!

I had a guy that inspired me to find my own answers when I strated blowing glass. I asked him how he did a particular marble. He told me that I needed to go and try to figure it out instead of him just telling me how. I came back to him with 3 different ways i thought he did it. He explained that none of them were right and that I had learned 3 new things along the way. I have since figured it out, and learned much more than just how to make that one pattern. Here I am 16 years later and still learning, making a good living, and appreciative he didn't just give it to me.

Good idea. This way the thread is cleaner, not showing questionable posts..

...and that was pretty much it with Europe going home. The countdown for the risk play of the year finally started.

As widely expected very thin markets in hypersensitive and 'tweet' mode with every poll, gossip and else. Later in the evening UK (by the NY close) is expected a plethora of polls, comments and aggressive closure of campaign from both sides especially from Brexiters so as usual when politicians and not economics, investors and fundamentals are in control of the market expect lots of jitters and markets (and forums as we have seen today) becoming a whorehouse with noise, lots of BS and out of the blue polls denying everything that has to do with economics and trade ...

Good time to start wrapping up the last post about the implications of the UK vote for trading in the mid & long term and how to manage the next few sessions.

sisse

PS: regarding the trolls, talk markets and increase the level of discussion that is the natural repellent against trolls and disrupters ... it's not the first, it wont be the last so just ignore and talk trading ...

ps longs were triggered

...since the open...

sisse

So far the short win but today the daily close may position itself for long till LO and NY Overlap start on tomorrow

EURUSD Comment:
Imo, the chart confirms that we are "in the middle of nowhere" and so cannot rely on TA so much, it can shoot to any direction or make sucker moves to any direction first before resuming in the opposite. FA and Trade Management + Money Management can help of course. Unless we die tomorrow, we will have plenty opportunities to trade new setups when TA will be easier to read and times will be a bit less risky. BUT, since RR is 9:1 in our learning game, I don't mind choosing the side...tricky carrot Sisse gave us..

And here we go for the UK vote. A bit of an early post as tomorrow will be pretty much irrelevant given the event in play. This the 4th post on the issue. In the first we talked about the politics, in the next 2 we discussed the short term and knee jerk reaction, in this final I am moving to the key part of the event which is the implications for the mid and long term.

--> On the fundamental side, [long reading alert]

In a nutshell: A potential mid and long term game changer in play.

 

1. Despite 90% of the economists in the world on the same line, all markets, all mega investors (institutional and private), the last 20 years Economic Nobel Prize Winners, every single serious and technical international institution from (OCDE to IMF, WB, and you name it), 9 of the 10 largest countries (from the US to China to Brazil), 80% of the Manufacturing industries in the UK, 95% of the export related industries and a large (nearly 70%) of all large and medium employers in the UK warning the dangers of the UK isolating itself and agreeing that the consequences of a vote out will be bad for the UK economy in the best case scenario, the average voter keep holding and ignoring the warnings....

1. This post is not about the politics of it so I will wrap this part in this point. I personally find it really hard to explain from an Economic perspective how committing an economic and political 'hara-kiri' can make any sense especially because the ones who are going to pay the highest toll in all these are the same that are voting to leave (+50% low income class with no higher education with the most vulnerable jobs in play) while the rich, bastards and large corporations will just move quickly wherever is better without thinking twice or losing anything
   1. ...but hey we'll see if they are going to put their and their children money where their vote is in the mid term if things go upside down in the economy as expected on a vote out just 'in the name' of transferring bureaucracy from point A to point B and not really addressing or changing the real concerns.

   
   

2. So why is so important a simple referendum vote in a marginal 'irrelevant' economy for the world economy?
   1. Because both 1) London: largest financial centre in the world and 2) Europe (EU contagion): largest and richest trading block in the world can crumble into pieces in a very relatively short term.

   
   

3. Before I wrap up those key points. The first impact for the mid and long term is obviusly in the UK itself.
   1. ​This point is the least important for us traders so I will quickly wrap it up in the main impact:

   ​
   ​=> Taking the most optimistic scenarios and forecasts (as the median and average are too scary to even think about it) , the UK will enter in a sharp recession by the end of 2017 Q1/ Q2018 contracting between -%5.6 to -7.5% (and that is the optimistic one).
   
   

=> Last week unemployment hit the lowest in nearly a decade 5% (which doesnt really match the argument of the Brexiters but hey) and is a couple of notches away of full employment that will be achieved by the end of the year if they don't shoot themselves in the foot. A vote out, will account between 1.2 to 1.5 million jobs lost in the next 5 years (the pessimistic ones talk about 3.6 mill but that i find ridicule)

=> Manufacturing will be the sector that will suffer the most and it will be by the most optimistic case, completely annihilated (-45% reduction in pcc) expected in the next decade losing access to the EU markets without the non tariff restriction and flexible labour markets.

=> Inflation will make the average prices 8 %to 12% more expensive as agricultural, food and major hit in Sterling Real Purchase Power (expect massive devaluation) which will directly impact in a reduction of REAL WAGES between 1200 to 2000 pounds just in the first couple of years ....

-->There will be in what in Economics is call a "Crowding out" impact in employment between the private and the public sector. Basically get a job in the public sector for the next few years as thats where the UK economy will gravitate to offset the uncertainty and impact plus with 12000 new laws and a few hundred of bureaucratic institutions that will be need to be created .....

=> On the positive impact some isolated medium size industries and services (all those minority business strongly supporting Brexit) in the sectors that they have strong competition from Europe will be more than happy to have out of the blue a quasi monopoly is some markets especially in some business in the Midlands, in environmental sensitive sectors in the cheapest labour markets (...zero hour contracts get ready to be the norm? in the lower range of the labour market). So a few business will make a killer with Brexit as they will kill competition, environmental regulations and labour conditioning one go at least for a few years.

There is no point on going in more details in the macroeconomic points as its starting to sound like a scaremongering and the point of this post is to understand the implications for trading. Scaremongering or not, the only thing for sure is that the impact in the UK mid, long term is BAD.

In mid/long trading terms and only from those interested in UK related trading ONLY :

-> Vote out:

1. Outlook to Strong sell in mid and long term in UK Equities eyeballing the worst from Q3 2017 and beyond
2. Watch-out for local sector for stock picking as there will be winners via local monopolies.
3. Sterling after the short term annihilation, expecting to remain very bearish and find a lower equilibrium in the long run (forger about the +1.4x for a decades or more)
4. Keep a extremely close eye on the commercial property markets by next year and housing market in general as if that domino goes ... we could see something very scary and big....

-> Vote in:

1. Uneventful: Outlook to neutral in UK Equities until the FED and BOE clear rates
2. Watch-out financial stocks rocketing as it wont be tomorrow for next year.
3. Sterling will be kept under pressure via Dollar in the short term but a mid and long term bottom will be around the corner (Q2 2017)

​...now with the UK part cleared ...what are the implications (if any) for the financial markets and global economy...coming next

sisse

But you did see his products right? If you know what I mean...

Must read post, but again are you on BUY, SELL or NO TRADE side?