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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,141
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:15pm Jun 20, 2016 6:15pm
Sisse and Imrich. On your G/U conversation. Im having hard times mapping swings on G/U - or harder than with E/U these days/weeks

However, look at the chart:

1. I could not find when we got a MID term strong sell - however, I project it sometime in the red area. Just found that we reconfirmed strong sell in january - vertical line.
2. =) so I project the lvls from the red area - hypothetical strong sell MID term point.
3. recent chop is correction after we hit 1st target.
4. in any case Im not sure whats bellow as its hard to project lvls since my broker does not even have price lower than 2009 and Brexit can be huge - going beyond the scope of normal trading.

What I expect? Even if we get in vote --- as sisse wrote --- knee jerk reaction but we most likely gonna end this W cande with a wick and price closed below 1.461-3x (momentum line =) resistance).

P.S.: imarich, I would say ur map was too far aways from the price for mid term. I would use that zoom out for long term map. Of course there are lvl which are significant on more scales. ehm, but Im not sure how to operate with this stuff as I would expect long term lvls to have more FA than TA logic. hmm, dunno
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  • #141,142
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:27pm Jun 20, 2016 6:27pm
Last P.S.:

if the moment of MID term strong sell is much prior to the rad area the lvl should have different logic +++ even now I can see that the lvl called momentum line does not really fit - looking at the price I would say it should be a little bit higher - where the price got the huge momentum. So maybe its not real momentum line but definitely works as a mid term lvl.
  • #141,143
  • Jun 20, 2016 7:59pm Jun 20, 2016 7:59pm
TRADER SHARK DOO DOO DO DOO DO DOO

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,144
  • Jun 20, 2016 10:10pm Jun 20, 2016 10:10pm
Quoting The Fool
TRADER SHARK DOO DOO DO DOO DO DOO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZsoesa55w
Good lord. I just watched (and enjoyed) that whole thing
  • #141,145
  • Jun 20, 2016 10:36pm Jun 20, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Good lord. I just watched (and enjoyed) that whole thing
I sing it on jobsites, nobody can hear above the noise of the machines....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,146
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:20am Jun 21, 2016 12:20am
Quoting sisse
No surprises in the Euro clearing 1.135x target for the european opening. FTSE flying high after rejection of key 5900 (as most polls showing UK to remain over the weekend) but made on thin air. Not much expected across the board except from gossip in the UK. Pure TA moves till Wednesday in play. On the iteration, shorts killed already and out of contest. Longs and neutral still in play meaning last question of this set: {quote} ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.135x++++ Update 4 Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 12 hours 3 days) -> LMT BUY 1.115x [check]...
I would take sit tight. Already booked 2 targets and made profits.
  • #141,147
  • Jun 21, 2016 4:11am Jun 21, 2016 4:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Dollar... As always, a FX pair has 2 sides. Don't oversee and dismiss one side (especially when is the king DOLLAR !!!!) because the other side (Sterling in this case) is in play. Sure UK triggering panic could short-circuit monetary policy in the FED (and everywhere) but the UK alone beyond London and panic via Europe contagion is pretty much 'irrelevant' for the world economy despite what you hear in the media from the Ukipers and Brexiters.... ....so sooner rather than later the Dollar side will play out and in context (and worst without...
Many thanks for the reply - makes perfect sense!

Seems I need to take the blinkers off and focus on the bigger picture.

Andrew
  • #141,148
  • Jun 21, 2016 4:28am Jun 21, 2016 4:28am
That was pretty much it for the week on the reports front. Strong numbers from Europe closing the table for the actual UK vote play. Expecting markets to lean and thin down with Europe going home today and we'll enter in short term limbo in European markets till Thursday.

Despite the short term knee jerk reaction (that is pretty much already cook) impact we have been discussing here what is really in play this week is a game changer for Europe in the mid and long term.

In a nutshell, a vote out will trigger a change in outlook both in mid and long term to strong sell in Equities in UK and Europe via political contagion and pretty much guarantee self-inflicted recession 2.0 in the continent from 2017 onwards. While a vote remain, will let the map set for a strong and first real recovery rally by the end of the year in the continent (especially in the Euro Zone).

The last final post on the mid and long term implication coming later. For now, DAX 10000 will be kept on check until uncertainty is clear, while FTSE holding 6000 will be the rain makers for the the vote (to both sides). Nothing to see until NY in that front.

In the FX board, expecting Euro grinding the current intraday highs before Thursday that will make things a lot easier and will unlock the UK vote map flow play in the pair....until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,149
  • Jun 21, 2016 4:30am Jun 21, 2016 4:30am
For the undecided's in UK

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  • #141,150
  • Jun 21, 2016 4:50am Jun 21, 2016 4:50am
Do any one got an idea if Brexit postpones ... what will be the effects and what is any1's trade plan .... ?

just curious to ask .... trying to get every reaction of every possible trader who plans to jump into Brexit scene.. just a question
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,151
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:42am Jun 21, 2016 8:42am
How about a grid of small positions 50 pips apart up to the lows of GBPUSD? Would that be dangerous? I guess if people think the impact will be like removing the peg like SNB did, then it will be extremely dangerous because in 1 sec a huge candle will have formed, jumping over every single stop position and opening it at "the best price available". Meaning dozens of accumulated positions at the low... waiting for a retracement to happen... any ideas how to trade this?
  • #141,152
  • Edited 9:18am Jun 21, 2016 8:54am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting ExForX
How about a grid of small positions 50 pips apart up to the lows of GBPUSD? Would that be dangerous? I guess if people think the impact will be like removing the peg like SNB did, then it will be extremely dangerous because in 1 sec a huge candle will have formed, jumping over every single stop position and opening it at "the best price available". Meaning dozens of accumulated positions at the low... waiting for a retracement to happen... any ideas how to trade this?
Exforex.... Im not sure. But.... here is what I thought....

Chart 1: we are in short/MID/long term srong sell. for mid term chart down see my previous post.
In this chart............. Im not sure if its short or mid term----the range is wide and has been here for long time...... either mid term range with short term swing inside or short term range with lower frame "flows" in....... in any case..... I prefere to see it as short term and I look at it on D1....... the strong sell has to prevailed yet. Right now we on the extreme top. So today.... I faded the 1.47x lvl expecting a wick on D1 and prepostitioning for Brexit - I expect the price to retrace going into Brexit.

On day of referendum ----- Im gonna have 0 stop loss and hope that the volatility does not stop me out in case of brexit. In case of IN my preposition is gonna get stopped out and newly Im gonna fade the knee jerk reaction in the yellow area approx as "buy the rumour sell the fact".
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  • #141,153
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:58am Jun 21, 2016 8:58am
I am William Wallace. Soros and the Globalists will have an easier time with their pomo multiculturalist project without the grumbling UK. Vote Brexit and let them get on with it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,154
  • Jun 21, 2016 9:15am Jun 21, 2016 9:15am
sisse,

Thanks for analysis on the Market in all instruments. I love reading them as they give me more insight into the markets every time I read a post and see how it affects the currencies, commodities, equities and ect...

I posted a chart or my MID MAP and so did chester123. I think what is confusing for me is the following in making a MAP.

(1)Short Term Map:
How many swings or how many pip movements. In other words, does a short term map have a swing that's around 500 to 600 pip extremes normally?
What TF chart do you use to help Map this. (Daily?)

(2)Mid Term Map:
How many swings or how many pip movements. In other words, does a mid term map have a swing that's around 1000 to 1200 pip extremes normally?
What TF chart do you use to help Map this. (Weekly?)

(3)Long Term Map:
How many swings or how many pip movements. In other words, does a short term map have a swing that's around 1500 to 2000 pip extremes normally?
What TF chart do you use to help Map this. (Monthly?)

Lastly, you said:
The key GU, no brainer again sitting in choose your poison time for the mid and long term with a rather very bearish close today.

Can you explain what made it very bearish? Is it because it could not close above the previous Highs around .456x where there is much resistance?
  • #141,155
  • Jun 21, 2016 9:54am Jun 21, 2016 9:54am
Euro quickly losing foot on the opening session intraday and cleaning all but major hands for this week. Well done to Fadhl and Pharm0r that cleared high.

Only 3 traders left in the contest: glassblower, ptoftangency and IMARICH1 (as I mentioned in the first update you are sitting in the best and more rational position for the outlook...you are aligning to get a flawless call just because you follow the map without hesitation...will see in a few)....

Not much to see across the board for the European close as markets as expected are getting thiner and thiner.... with same levels, same trades and same all on the very few remaining positions open across the FX board ...

Quoting sisse
... ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.135x++++ Update 4 Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 12 hours 3 days)

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.128x++++

Update 5

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 0 hours 4 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 [check] | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Earlobe(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Red Pirate(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Decima(close all @ TP1)

Vorex(close all @ TP1)

chronical(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

manosk(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

chester123 (TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

Fadhl (Clear all at @TP2)

Pharm0r(Clear all at @TP2)


glassblower

ptoftangency


No touch (for 3 days) [check] TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x [check] and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,156
  • Jun 21, 2016 10:07am Jun 21, 2016 10:07am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Exforex.... Im not sure. But.... here is what I thought.... Chart 1: we are in short/MID/long term srong sell. for mid term chart down see my previous post. In this chart............. Im not sure if its short or mid term----the range is wide and has been here for long time...... either mid term range with short term swing inside or short term range with lower frame "flows" in....... in any case..... I prefere to see it as short term and I look at it on D1....... the strong sell has to prevailed yet. Right now we on the extreme top. So today.......
Nice chart, solid plan, I also have a position at current levels to be in early. What do you mean with 0 stoploss? You mean stop at BE? Also that is dangerous, because if price spikes +100pips (who knows), brokers will close at "next best price", and that is the gapped price. Losses could exceed your predetermined stop.
  • #141,157
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:50am Jun 21, 2016 11:50am
Europe going home and we ready to roll for this week.

+++++Opening table for the 2nd Iteration in the second round to STAY in synch with the market short term+++++


--> Question 12: Trading thin markets and jitters. UK vote on sight how would you trade the next legs?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R. It's titled: "You snooze, you lose"and its aim to introduce trading wide volatility markets and trapping soft hands.

--> Choose your poison ASAP. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all. Updates will come in later...

2 options for this iteration. No time limit for longs or shorts:

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.125x++++

You snooze, you lose


-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP1 => 1.145x | TP2 => 1.1520 | | TP3 => 1.1750 | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*


-> LMT STP SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP2 => 1.098x | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*


Like the previous one expecting to be a dynamic iteration so try to jump in as further iterations may remain closed for a while depending on how things pan out ... For those too scare to trade it live or staying sidelined, feel free to jump in 'demo' ...you may learn a thing or two in the process ...

I was thinking to open a parallel iteration for GU given the amount of questions and comments received but I think is too complex environment and thin markets to add any value in the conversation ...we'll see in a few hours for now officially open EURO UK vote flow trade ....Comments on this map later when the table closes....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,158
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:53am Jun 21, 2016 11:53am
-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP1 => 1.145x | TP2 => 1.1520 | | TP3 => 1.1750 | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

speculationg on "out" decision - not likely (acording to markets) but still.... who knows.
  • #141,159
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:56am Jun 21, 2016 11:56am
Thanks Chester ...the first to take the plunge is always the harderst ... GL if you are trading live...

IN

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.125x++++

You snooze, you lose


-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP1 => 1.145x | TP2 => 1.1520 | | TP3 => 1.1750 | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

chester123


-> LMT STP SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP2 => 1.098x | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> (+)9:1*

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,160
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:56am Jun 21, 2016 11:56am
buy
would you expect anything less?
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