The Really Useless Thread

[quote=sisse;8987908]...and as widely expected, sharp gap up in all currencies.
May I understand that the "rule" by which gaps are closed may not apply for the current gaps? It might widen with EU session? Thanks

Done for the month

Thank you Sisse for the comprehensive analysis on Brexit.

Very nice

No surprises in the Euro clearing 1.135x target for the european opening. FTSE flying high after rejection of key 5900 (as most polls showing UK to remain over the weekend) but made on thin air. Not much expected across the board except from gossip in the UK. Pure TA moves till Wednesday in play.

On the iteration, shorts killed already and out of contest. Longs and neutral still in play meaning last question of this set:

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.135x++++

Update 4

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 12 hours 3 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 [check] | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Earlobe(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Red Pirate(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Decima(close all @ TP1)

Vorex(close all @ TP1)

Fadhl (Take TP1 Trail to 1.125x)

glassblower

manosk

chronical

Pharm0r

ptoftangency

chester123 (TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

No touch (for 3 days) [check] TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x [check] and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Grinsakh (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

eborn (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

​chester123 (take TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

hoom

clayjay

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11c +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

this time only for those STILL LONG IN THE CONTEST

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.135x++++

-> LMT BUY 1.115x > TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl (Take TP1 Trail to 1.125x)

glassblower

manosk

chronical

Pharm0r

ptoftangency

chester123 (TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

--> Second target hit. How would you manage the position?:

 

1. Clear all "is too risky and uncertain out there with the UK and all that"
2. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"
3. Trail to guarantee profit. "Its very jittery out there. Got what I want, the rest is just 'extra'. Trailing to 1.125x for the UK vote"
4. Going for the Homerun. "UK will vote to remain. I got 2 out of 3 targets already ...I am going for the homerun making the short term leg a swing trade, buying any dip and changing TP3 from 1.145x to 1.175x. (meaning for the contest a extra TP of r:r 5:1 / 6:1 / 7:1 for each 100 ticks above TP3 but cancelling TP3) "

If you don't answer its assume you stay put. Limited time to decide as markets can move rather quick at these levels.....

sisse

3-Trail to guarantee profit, thanks a lot sisse..

Trail to guarantee profit

Thank you Sisse

Clear all. Risk too high

In real world trading the spread or leverage could and would EASILY smoke your position. This iteration is based on ideal conditions where there is no spread, gaps, etc.

We are talking about an event that could possibly be more volatile than the snb peg. Having a position on brexit day is dangerous in real world trading

Trail to guarantee profit. "Its very jittery out there. Got what I want, the rest is just 'extra'. Trailing to 1.125x for the UK vote"

Thank you

I think it's too risky. Clear all now and buy again the 23rd, day of referendum.

Thanks sisse for all the very valuable information on how to digest the market at this time and for the info on the Zig Zag play. Hopefully, we are close to the HIGHS for GBP and EU and I will finally see the MID TERM leg in both develop. I would have expected it sooner than later. However, here we are almost into Summer and vacations around the corner for most traders. I was told trading in the months of July to beginning of Sept are difficult as volume drys up with thin trading.

I would presume this is what you would post to me (sisse) as this was a question I wanted to ask you and would have caused you to have an early week melt-down with me. But, I want others to see how easy it is to doubt from one week to the next and get lost in the forest and the trees. And, I wanted your superb post to be in this WEEKS Commentary (CENTER STAGE) as I believe it holds a lot of truth.

IMARICH1's question: I know we went from .400X in GBP to .467X within 2 days? You said we have cleared short term target when we hit .403X. Due to BREXIT or BREMAIN, does this change your MAP for MID TERM MAP of testing the 2009 LOWS? I have waiting patiently for a test of .36XX since March.

sisse would probably answer it in this way: NO! NO! NO! NO!---------Why would anything change in MID TERM. Has anything changed? Has Fiscal Policy and Economy changed? NO! Then, just sit tight!

IMARICH1 would respond: Why can't I see it? Why is this so difficult to see for me? I do get DIRECTION, SWINGS and CURRENT SWING with NEWS FLOWS messed up ALOT! I wish I could understand why I do this. Sigh....any more exercises to help me with this would be welcomed. This is what I think you would post and I believe we are still in the cheap seats with the noise and short sweat as its confusing here to know if I am on the right or wrong side of the market MID TERM and especially already in late June still waiting for the MID TERM LEG to unfold (which has and I don't see it).

sisse so frustrated would state: The forest from the trees is your issue. Trying to catch a Big Fish with a Small boat is your issue................

One more time the same points:

 

1. We trade expectations not facts.
2. The sooner you get in synch with expectations, the better and less risk you will have.
3. Map your direction for swinging before trying to trade.
4. Macro direction (outlook) will give you the path of least resistance to trade with the best r:r, lower drawdown, and better w%.
5. In general, the smaller news, reports and etc give you a good benchmark of the ebb and flow of the current leg(wave/short term swing/or whatever you call it).
6. Even if you spot TA wise a potential retrace/pullback against your direction. Don't be a sucker trading!!!! as sure you will get one or two but you WILL NEVER get consistent results and more importantly you will get burnt sooner rather than later.

Now with those points and that sketch in mind:

1. What happen if we fail to take the lows in GU because of a dovish FED a UK in vote or simply out of volatility to shake out the last hands before a break down?
   1. Well NOTHING. Thats why you trade expectations not facts. You will get a scratch trade with the reaming in the worst case scenario and try again, Who cares !!!!
   2. We already cleared 1st target in the mid term and have a nearly homerun (so far) in the short term leg so in simple words:
   3. No break no shake no nothing.

   
   
   

2. ​Your main issue is that you are trying to trade a swing as it were a simple and DIRECT news flow play like a NFP, inflation, GDP numbers or whatever and ITS NOT !!!.You are waiting for a major confirmation that will pretty much kill the move already by the time you try to jump in/clear/confirm/etc.

You are afraid to believe that markets move because of expectations in value (of whatever instrument and whatever the reasons) and thinking that a couple of predefined by some esoteric force of nature squiggly lines will decide the direction and value of a market.

Don't get me wrong, sure there are plenty of TA setups for trading and I use TA every single day but my point is if you want to be in synch with the markets YOU MUST be in SYNCH with expectations (even if there are not the ones you think should be !!!!). The TA part come just after when you need to actually place a trade.

In this case, there is no in a million years you will jump here without a break. Moreover, with short, mid and long term aligned to one side have fun fading the move as I wont be joining you even if GU rally 500 ticks tomorrow. Why? because the money is in consistency and risk management not in jumping in every potential trade ....

So as long as there is no changes in the outlook or expectations, like always and I hope you by now get the point I make almost every single day when talking about a swing already in play: Same levels, same trades, same all !!!

sisse

​ Because you are too focus on one mover and shaker and not seeing the market as a whole. The financial markets don't start neither end with the UK vote. Sure there is the key risk mover and shaker for this week/and maybe the summer if things go mad but you are 'forgetting' that ANY PAIR/CROSS has 2 sides !!!!. This is also relates to Pharm0r answer below.

When I cleared the last target in GU the 16th we WERE trading the FED play in GU not the risk play. Try to look back some posts and you may find some points on why STERLING (or any other major) were [NOT] going to break down on panic without confirmation.

In a nutshell, is because between hedges and even larger hands betting on UK remain Sterling will find support until the Vote day. Only a major poll swinging to exit over the error standard deviation will make bastards clear all. We are just hours away so that is clearly not seem to be in the the cards as UK remain polls starting to shift one more time to the common sense side.

So in the short term. Map (sadly after the fact now) the short term swing we were trading and ended up in a homerun. Now in a new chart, map the mid term map in play...

Nothing has changed yet ...

Not sure what you mean.

1. If the leverage could blow your position is because you are overleveraged. Period.
2. What spread?. We are swinging with a +250 ticks mattress to stop in the most liquid instrument in the world with an event that would be clearer by the first exit polls in the best case scenario and if its too close to call you are going to have hours to clear if the target hasn't been hit before until noon on the day.
3. More importantly and as I mentioned above the current swing is on the FED play flow... we haven't even mention yet the UK vote play in Euro
4. What gap? the vote is in a Weekday?

sisse

Honestly, I don;t think I know how to MAP a Short term Map, MID Term and Long Term Map due to ignorance in swings and legs still. I made this MID Term MAP looking at the past 30 yrs since you indicated Sterling may see LOWS its never seen for a very long while.

I am sure these 3 lines are incorrect based on swings.........but they areas to take notice of and where Strong hands came in to play.

chester123, I know you can do a better job than me showing a MID Map so be my guest and allow someone here to answer this intelligently!

A quick review of main markets before real money raise bids and offers this week:

=> US equities crashing again 2097.xx and the minutes are counted to confirm the high of the year. Only a UK remain vote short term relief rally will unlock a final and quick exhaustion leg in and out on the knee jerk reaction but in every other case we are set to mark the high of the year on the Monthly close.

=> UK Equities (benchmark this week) completing a textbook dead cat bounce. Vote out wining and 5900 will be blown for a very sharp correction (-15% to 20% retrace from highs) now TA has confirmed the scenario also in the short term while a Vote in will just leave us with the knee jerk reaction relief rally for the rest of the month.

=> Gold as widely expected with risk sitting triggering imminent break up alerts!!! for the UK vote. A flop will just leave us chopping around grinding the highs after the risk hedges are cleared while a vote out and we have a couple of hundred points rally cleared.

=> OIL and other commodities, just moving as collateral. A vote in and we'll see a last chance to take the $50.00 handle and complete the extension 55.2x. Europe triggering panic and recession and we are back to test the lows of the year before year's end.

=> On the currency board, Dollar lost the key 94.4x on the runaway gap but THE play come with the UK vote and beyond. Now, a single 'tick' above 94.4x and we wont see the level again this year ....until then not much to see to the other side....

=> The key GU, no brainer again sitting in choose your poison time for the mid and long term with a rather very bearish close today. A vote out and Sterling is set to see a multi-decade low this year. Vote in and we will see a multi-year low... only a knee jerk reaction on a vote in left to the top side...

=> Finally Euro, with no changes and a bullish roll today. Stuck between FED rates, ultra aggressive ECB and RISK via the UK just making the final tunings before it takes the driver seat for the summer. A vote in, will pretty much kill the risk flows leaving the Euro very expose to the sell side while a vote out with panic will just trigger a washout with Europe fears of the continent entering in unavoidable recession by the end of the year and next year ....

Plenty of mover and shakers cooking for the summer ...

sisse

polls 'n tweets, rumors 'n gossip. throw in a false-flag assassination or two, Yellen 'n Draghi on tap tomorrow will see who can make the loudest dove noises, really just can't be more bored with it all, ....at least there's lots of futbol on the telly these days....that's prolly all rigged, too....oh, somebody tried to blow up the Central Bank of Venezuela, that's something, I guess.....

So we are heading for the lows whatever the outcome? Can you explain please?

I thought with an In vote we would see 1.50+

Thanks
Andrew

How can anyone blame the poor Venezuelans. Blowing +300 hundred years of $$$ from OIL income in just a few years of poor populism and mismanagement... To our previous discussion well there you have it: A extreme case of what happen when populism and false sense of nationalism prime over rationality and economics ...

... yeah England drew today and qualified. There was a funny but a real article (from The Economist I think) running a correlation of England crashing out of the Euros (despite the hooligans trashing Lille and Saint-Etienne) would have put Brexit in a strong lead in the polls...With the level of debate here I wouldn't had been surprised to be honest ...

As you said at least plenty of good footy in between the gossip and drama for this week....

sisse

Dollar...

As always, a FX pair has 2 sides. Don't oversee and dismiss one side (especially when is the king DOLLAR !!!!) because the other side (Sterling in this case) is in play.

Sure UK triggering panic could short-circuit monetary policy in the FED (and everywhere) but the UK alone beyond London and panic via Europe contagion is pretty much 'irrelevant' for the world economy despite what you hear in the media from the Ukipers and Brexiters....

....so sooner rather than later the Dollar side will play out and in context (and worst without London and the UKin the EU) is pretty much a puny irrelevant 'David' against a mega Goliat in size and importance ...

sisse

LOL, they used to riot in the 1,000,000's in Caracas when the govt raised the price of pasta - before Chavez....now people are starving there, throngs digging in the trash piles for a scrap to eat. Very sad & alarming because that could happen anywhere. I didn't read the Economist bit but I could see that, no problem. Does England play again before the Brexit vote?.....

Nope... Next round is next week.... by then they may need to ask for Visas to play ...

sisse