The Really Useless Thread

I second that. Very good posts with very valuable information. Keep it coming.

sisse

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11b +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

this time only for those LONG ALREADY IN THE CONTEST

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.125x++++

-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

Red Pirate

Vorex

ptoftangency

Decima

glassblower

First target hit. How would you manage the position?:

 

1. Clear all "is too risky and uncertain out there with the UK and all that"
2. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"
3. Trail to BE. "I am not sure better grab something before is too late"
4. I changed my mind with Risk play coming "I am playing the reverso 1.123x -> to the short targets"

If you don't answer its assume you stay put. Limited time to decide as markets can move rather quick at these levels..

sisse

I like it, but I would like to see last year's values

Clear all, 100 pips at R:R 1:1.5 closing at the current. I am sidelining for this..

Trail to BE! I'm still newbie in this market.

I think Brexit is a very high risk event and yesterday the sellers choosing nay was wrong as they were 120 pips in profit which was good enough considering brexit, and as the marked showed us the price reversed all the way and it could happen again where the price could zigzag up and down so for me I will go with clear all.

4. I changed my mind with Risk play coming "I am playing the reverso 1.123x -> to the short targets"

I shall sit tight for now...tp at target 1 and awaiting target 2

1. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"

I think there is more to come. If the odds slightly change on Brexit we will see TP2.

4.I changed my mind with Risk play coming "I am playing the reverso 1.123x -> to the short targets"

For those still confused about the implications of Brexit and Bremain (and heck, that's most of us, right? ), here's a short lighthearted summary that I thought was worth posting. Please enjoy!

No one — economist, politician or mystic — knows what tumult we can expect in the next 15 years. But we do know that whatever happens, Britain will be better able to respond and adapt as a sovereign country living under its own laws.

The history of the last two centuries can be summed up in two words: democracy matters.

For those who have been trading for long in these boards and that gone though from crashes, Lehman, Global chaos, Europe Debt crisis, Greece and etc
this time opening out of regular hours conversation to track the open today. As usual in cases of extreme potential panic/risk lots of noise expected before.... so before we go in details a quick update on the last iteration.

Very well done to IMARICH1 for clearing the neutral first target.

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.128x++++

Update 3

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 0 hours 3 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

Red Pirate

Vorex

ptoftangency

Decima

glassblower

chester123 (TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

No touch (for 3 days) [check] TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x [check] and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Grinsakh (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

eborn (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

​chester123 (take TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

hoom

clayjay

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

We have all sides clearing first target. Just a couple of points before the iteration is settle this week.

1. For some who were shorts. Although stops are still hanging, sitting 170 ticks against the low shows clearly that holding short was a bit out of synch of the market:
   1. A quick reminder that in short term outlook neutral there is better value for money risk, w% and drawdown in trading from the the outside as cheap tickets are in the extremes. Here is a quick a chart update that its more telling that thousand words:

   
   
   
   

​Before:

After:



For those newcomers who have reacted questions and are interested in the conversation, track back a few pages in the thread to find some answers ...

1. @ IMARICH1 and for those who ask specific about the ZIGZAG in play...in the next post...

sisse

@IMARICH and others who ask about a ZigZag flow.

As I mentioned before, great call the neutral one especially because it makes perfect sense with your analysis and the outlook. However, just for your information, we were in neutral and you ended up trading the choppy part of the zigzag flow (meaning you are trading the volatility compression part of the zigzag).

What it means, there is nothing wrong with the call and you either stay sidelined in spot during the zigzag (v. good call and healthy for proper trading) or trade the volatility compression in some other way (options for example) as you call it in this iteration.

If you are sharp enough you can see that the other way to skin the cat especially with a FA in the side of the zigzag (the dovish FED) check what @Chester flawless call so far to see how could you trade the inside legs after aiming to play the volatility expansion part of the move.

 

1. This is a great way to trade a zigzag in spot because you are avoiding stepping in during the major news. If the news go heavily against your idea (for example a super hawkish FED or a hike etc etc) your entry would NEVER have been even remotely trigger. Sure you would have missed the unexpected move but so 99% of the the market so nothing to worry as you will get another chance later down the road.

1. On the other hand, if you get as we got the FED confirmation with expectations, the neutral outlook gave a flawless confirmation to play the zigzag. Fading or both trading and reversing against the soft hands in the first part of the ZIG was the no brainer to aim to the ZAG that will only explode on the break of highs.

1. Even if the last leg of the ZIGZAG fails... you are well positioning and in healthy profit to manage the remaining ...

1. As you obviously can imagine the expansion of volatility will be confined or killed this week with the UK vote ...but smart money short term is already well positioning to even in the worst possible outcome not really lose in the knee jerk reaction and if news goes good as expected, they will just ride the pig without any retail and soft hands on board ...

Here is a quick sketch of a ZigZag for you and others who are interested to dig deeper with the previous conversations in mind ....

I hope it helps and clarify a zigzag flow...

sisse

We are going (already are) to get flooded Ad nauseam with tweets, polls and information from the UK vote but mostly will be emotionally comments with strong politizized bias with populism and false nationalism putting the cherry on top.

To avoid missing the forest for the trees I'll try to keep this comments as technical and objective as possible and focus mainly to the economic perspective for trading.

-->Economic Impact of UK referendum for trading II<--

=> Knee jerk reaction via risk continuation:

 

1. The first and important impact is the HUGE relocation of major financial flows from London (which is still in size the largest financial centre in the WORLD !!!) to other parts of the world making London have a sharp shock via losing large parts of the EU financial flows as detailed in the previous post.

1. The second impact in the short term can be simply be summarised in one word UNCERTAINTY.

As we all traders know, if there is one thing markets HATE is uncertainty.

--> A vote to stay in will trigger "nothing to see here" putting the BOE and the UK economy (and by indirect effect the EU economy) back on the same page meaning BOE rates around the corner from Q4 and expecting a important bounce back by the end of year with Europe finding foot and the UK finally starting to see some positive effects of the latest years draconian public cuts. Europe will be set for an extended and recovery rally Q4 / Q1 2017.

--> While a vote leave will just open a pandoras box of epic proportion that not even the most pessimistic investor and law maker wants to really even peak at the implications. In a nutshell and to avoid entering in the political domain these are just the main issues the UK and Europe will face the day after that will keep even the most optimistic investor VERY VERY VERY far away from the UK until the dust is settle:

 

1. Westminster will have to re regulate laws (probably they will end the same but they need to be approve by Parliament) nearly 3700 new laws and over 12000 regulations and directives ranging from football (how on earth the Premier League will go without EU players je je je ) to fisheries, security, human rights, education, trade and you name it. Trying to untangle the knot and links will take no less than 2 years on the most optimistic count from lawmakers an another few to regulate it back .... Not need to be a lawyer or a rocket scientist that under these conditions is time to pull the plug in UK equities by simple common sense.

1. A vote out will force Cameron to step down meaning a vacuum of power, no government in the short term, isolated from Europe and trade until renegotiation happen and with a mountain of new laws to make ... you do the maths...no brainer sell the hell out of the UK until the dust settle.

1. A self inflicted political problem internally that can mark the end of the United Kingdom. The only condition in the Scottish referendum for calling a new one was the UK leaving Europe. Scotland will prolly leave the UK, Wales will be left in the limbo and even puny Gibraltar without the UK in the EU will be left pretty much dead.
   1. Despite the political implications of the UK splitting in little England and the rest from Gibraltar (tax heavens) to the unregulated islands (Jersey, Isle of Man, etc) to Scotland (OIL and direct trade with the north of England) will have huge implications for the local economy in the short term until the dust is settle and the new laws, regulations and conditions are settle.​​

   
   
   

2. There are a lot more implications in the short term but prolly the most important for trading and for markets is Fiscal Policy, the BOE and monetary policy. The BOE as all CBs in the world are overstayed with low rates. A vote out will leave the BOE with a nuclear combination that very few countries will ever want to even consider: High inflation, economic and political uncertainty, international trade in lockdown and standby until further notice, recession and all that with housing sector flirting to burst.
   1. Very little comparable cases in the last 2 centuries on a environment like this and the very few ended up rather bad (Germany hyperinflation in the inter-War period) but as any economist will tell you, it will be extremely difficult to keep the UK economy on check on the short term and either UK equities will need a sharp corrections or the Pound with major inflation overshoots will receive a major blow (e.g the 70s?).

   
   

​No point in going more in the short term impact effect as just these 4 or 5 points are too strong to make any other minor point relevant. In conclusion for short term:

1. Remain = "nothing to see" chop zone in UK equites until FED and BOE clear the clouds and expectations. Buy the quick and sharp knee jerk reaction in Sterling as major hands clear the risk bets and hedges. Nice and best environment for trading as the ebb and flows will be very tradable with decent volatility.
2. Vote out = uncertainty of major proportions that will take a long time to clear and settle. Annihilate UK Equities, check contagion Sell European Equities, check contagion Sell Global Equities. Sell Sterling ,if knee jerk reaction becomes panic and systemic Buy Dollar , Sell OIL , Buy GOLD trade first, think after as it will be sharp fast and furious. You blink you miss....

...for later the mid and long term implications

sisse

...and as widely expected, sharp gap up in all currencies. Euro and Sterling on a potential runaway gap in play with the UK vote triggering the confirmed zigzag from the flows.

Sellers stopped out in the contest with the open 1.132x.

Here got what i needed for today with same levels, same trades, same all with eyes on the European opening for a potential runaway gap in play ....

sisse

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x [check] | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Grinsakh (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

eborn (out at BE @ 1.125x after TP1)

​chester123 (take TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►

hoom

clayjay

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

There are also a few positives to be gained from leaving...

1. The banksters are fucked

2. Europe is fucked

3 The Euro will collapse and national currencies will be re-instated

4 NATO and UN will probly collapse

6 Russian Sanctions will be cancelled

7 Obongo and TTIP will be fucked

8 Germany will pivot east

Theres probly loads more but that'll do for now

@Sa7an This is FF not the SUN or some low IQ tabloid.

Keep it relevant for trading, economics or politics with a minimum degree of relevancy for the topic otherwise you are just spreading noise and nonsense ...this thread is prolly not the right place to just spread random links to promote very bias political views without any trading, market or economic added value...

Thanks in advance.

sisse

​thank you for your latest posts about UK referendum ​, very much appreciated

Ur right Sisse - deleted