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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,441
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:31pm Jun 16, 2016 6:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I always thought the Brexit vote would be close - murder of Jo Cox by crazy Brexit advocate will backlash, probably kill the referendum's chances. If equities rally tomorrow, I will have some hard choices to make....
Ugh. Confused market, it appears; alternatively, the players are gonna play right up until the last minute pre-Brexit, since money can be made on these rotations ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,442
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:39pm Jun 16, 2016 6:39pm
I think the handwriting is on the wall, now - but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,443
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:41pm Jun 16, 2016 6:41pm
Okay, so now we're relying on "bookmakers" odds to predict the outcome of elections? ... . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-extends-slump As well as to make buy/sell decisions? Yowza ... . It is a "tinfoil" hat world out there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,444
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:44pm Jun 16, 2016 6:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Okay, so now we're relying on "bookmakers" odds to predict the outcome of elections? ... . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-extends-slump As well as to make buy/sell decisions? Yowza ... . It is a "tinfoil" hat world out there ... .
If I am not mistaken, the bookies have a much better track record of predicting elections results than the pollsters do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,445
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:52pm Jun 16, 2016 6:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}If I am not mistaken, the bookies have a much better track record of predicting elections results than the pollsters do.
So does The Sun newspaper in London. They have a good track record.
  • #13,446
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:57pm Jun 16, 2016 6:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}If I am not mistaken, the bookies have a much better track record of predicting elections results than the pollsters do.
It's just kind of weird that a major news outlet like Bloomberg is basically acknowledging the fact that bookies may be a legitimate source for market sentiment as to outcome (as opposed to polls, which have shown a "dead heat") ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,447
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:02pm Jun 16, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For tomorrow: RUT July 1st 1075/1085/1190/1200 Iron Condor Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPY due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (The smaller alternative is IWM, but I have an IWM trade on already ... ). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% P50: 71% Max Profit: $340/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $660 Delta: -3.51/contract Theta: 12.26/day/contract Notes: Naturally, I'm looking at pricing in the off hours, so...
Out of this setup for a $57/contract profit ... . Not what I was shooting for profit wise, but wanted to be flat ahead of Brexit ... . One pesky SPX iron condor left, and then I'll be flat on index setups going into Brexit, since it still could be tremendously choppy with positioning and or people just plain ass wanting to bail ... just in case ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,448
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:05pm Jun 16, 2016 7:05pm
Since the market thinks there now won't be a Brexit, maybe it'll turn its attention back to oil and its break of 47 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,449
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:37pm Jun 16, 2016 7:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Since the market thinks there now won't be a Brexit, maybe it'll turn its attention back to oil and its break of 47 ... .
I'm finding it difficult that oil will stay in the 40 range for long. I can see it down and stable in the 30 range before it goes above 50 again. Rig count up and more than 80% of the world wide storage vessel fleet are full at sea.
  • #13,450
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:52pm Jun 16, 2016 7:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It's just kind of weird that a major news outlet like Bloomberg is basically acknowledging the fact that bookies may be a legitimate source for market sentiment as to outcome (as opposed to polls, which have shown a "dead heat") ... .
bookmaking, spreadbetting, gambling are legal in the UK (I'm pretty sure) - maybe as such they are more "serious" than some of the press.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,451
  • Jun 16, 2016 11:26pm Jun 16, 2016 11:26pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} I'm finding it difficult that oil will stay in the 40 range for long. I can see it down and stable in the 30 range before it goes above 50 again. Rig count up and more than 80% of the world wide storage vessel fleet are full at sea.
Here's a good all-around article on oil break-even production figures ... .

Basically, every time oil pops above $40, shale comes back on line, at least for the fields that are at the low end of the BE spectra ... . The higher the price gets, the more lucrative it is for other fields to uncap, since price comes into range of their respective breakevens:

Attached Image


Ultimately, more rigs coming on line creates downward pressure on price. As price gets below respective fields' break evens, they temporarily take those rigs off line ... . In other words, up down up down up down, probably in a range between 30 and 50 for a very long time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,452
  • Jun 16, 2016 11:33pm Jun 16, 2016 11:33pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Here's a good all-around article on oil break-even production figures ... . Basically, every time oil pops above $40, shale comes back on line, at least for the fields that are at the low end of the BE spectra ... . The higher the price gets, the more lucrative it is for other fields to uncap, since price comes into range of their respective breakevens: {image} Ultimately, more rigs coming on line creates downward pressure on price. As price gets below respective fields' break evens, they temporarily take those rigs off line ... . In other...
Glut, still here ... . Bullish Goldman Sachs full of crap for the near term ... . http://www.reuters.com/article/us-as...-idUSKCN0YA129
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,453
  • Jun 16, 2016 11:42pm Jun 16, 2016 11:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Glut, still here ... . Bullish Goldman Sachs full of crap for the near term ... . http://www.reuters.com/article/us-as...-idUSKCN0YA129
All that being said, I have repeatedly been driven nuts by oil's lack of adherence to fundamental forces in the market place (um, like supply being way greater than demand, hence the large amount of storage in tankers, which is a last ditch thing to do because, well, it's kinda expensive to store oil that way).

Ultimately, buy low/sell high remains the best thing to do. Trade the chart and not the crap that self-interested turds like Goldman-Sachs dish out; they might be bullish oil, but they're bullish from below 50 by some measure is my guess. No sane trader would buy way the fuck up here just like no sane trader would buy gold way the fuck up here unless they enjoy being kicked solidly in the nuts ... repeatedly ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,454
  • Jun 17, 2016 12:23am Jun 17, 2016 12:23am
Not much to report here. I'm still in all my options positions but the $17 put calendar spreads will need some attention next week before the Jun24 short expiry. Hopefully VXX will spike above $20 just before the vote so I can buy back the Jun24 very cheap, and leave the Jul long puts on in case of "remain" (which I still believe is the most likely result). Apart from that I've only got a $10 put for the reverso, which I bought ridiculously cheap a while back as part of a strangle. The call side is doing much better at the moment!

Sorry I've not been interacting much... the Nikkei's been keeping me very busy this week
Oh, got shook out of my USDCAD trade yesterday for a very small profit. You were right about the tight stop Zeebs.. I should've listened to you
Still in USO though, which is protected by a $11.50 put.

Take care guys, and here's hoping for some nice volatility spikes next week
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,455
  • Jun 17, 2016 12:40am Jun 17, 2016 12:40am
Quoting NorthTrader
Not much to report here. I'm still in all my options positions but the $17 put calendar spreads will need some attention next week before the Jun24 short expiry. Hopefully VXX will spike above $20 just before the vote so I can buy back the Jun24 very cheap, and leave the Jul long puts on in case of "remain" (which I still believe is the most likely result). Apart from that I've only got a $10 put for the reverso, which I bought ridiculously cheap a while back as part of a strangle. The call side is doing much better at the moment! Sorry I've not...
Holy crappacino on the Loonie ... . Makes me miss trading spot forex ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,456
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:04am Jun 17, 2016 1:04am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
. . Makes me miss trading spot forex ... .
it's all rigged, I tells ya...makes me miss the guillotine days.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,457
  • Jun 17, 2016 12:27pm Jun 17, 2016 12:27pm
cards laid on the table yesterday with a huge one day volatility rout, absolutely no recovery today, spoos is down but will probably end green, nobody buying VXX and UVXY, we get into next week and the polls will come back in the news and show Bremain gaining ground, US stocks will rally straight through the week. Brexit vol play I consider a done deal...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,458
  • Jun 17, 2016 5:05pm Jun 17, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting The Fool
Brexit vol play I consider a done deal...
maybe I'm being overly dramatic.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,459
  • Jun 17, 2016 5:24pm Jun 17, 2016 5:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}maybe I'm being overly dramatic.
My crystal ball shows the same.
  • #13,460
  • Jun 17, 2016 5:47pm Jun 17, 2016 5:47pm
Quoting peterdrill
My crystal ball shows the same.
I'm sitting on a mountain of shit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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