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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,381
  • Jun 14, 2016 12:44am Jun 14, 2016 12:44am
Quoting The Fool
I am shotgunning the VXX put spreads, hope to have something on that has a good finish or that puts me in the long legs ready to catch the drop....actually looking good....but I put them all on BEFORE the vol rush got going. If you wait, you pay more.
Waited, unfortunately, so will pay more ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,382
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:20am Jun 14, 2016 1:20am
For tomorrow: RUT July 1st 1075/1085/1190/1200 Iron Condor

Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPY due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (The smaller alternative is IWM, but I have an IWM trade on already ... ).

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 62%
P50: 71%
Max Profit: $340/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $660
Delta: -3.51/contract
Theta: 12.26/day/contract

Notes: Naturally, I'm looking at pricing in the off hours, so it may be necessary to tweak the setup a bit in terms of strikes and/or fill price on NY open. I'll look to manage this setup aggressively and take it off at 50% max.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,383
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:23am Jun 14, 2016 1:23am
Thanks to the fool for the vertical spread intake. You guys already into VXX puts? I believe we still have more upward trend before going into puts. Still holding my calls for both VXX and UVXY. Also holding my SVXY puts for today.
  • #13,384
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:28am Jun 14, 2016 1:28am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For tomorrow: RUT July 1st 1075/1085/1190/1200 Iron Condor Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPY due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (The smaller alternative is IWM, but I have an IWM trade on already ... ). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% P50: 71% Max Profit: $340/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $660 Delta: -3.51/contract Theta: 12.26/day/contract Notes: Naturally, I'm looking at pricing in the off hours, so...
TastyTrade poo-pah's these short duration setups or, at the very least, goes for 25-45 DTE plays, which is what I generally also do (45 DTE being the sweet spot). Because these "shorties" are "tighter," they are subject to being tested on occasion, so you need to know what you're doing with rolling to work them profitably ... . However, because they are shorter in duration than a 45 DTE, you potentially have to wait a shorter period of time for your "candy" (if I recall correctly, most 45 DTE setups hit 50% max profit after about 30 days ... ), which is exactly what I like about them ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,385
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:32am Jun 14, 2016 1:32am
Quoting peterdrill
Thanks to the fool for the vertical spread intake. You guys already into VXX puts? I believe we still have more upward trend before going into puts. Still holding my calls for both VXX and UVXY. Also holding my SVXY puts for today.
I think TF is positioned for a reversion with some put verts he put on some time ago. Me, I'm waiting a bit here to see if VIX makes 25 and then will play with potential setups ... . I've looked at few call diagonal setups in VXX, but I'd naturally like higher to slap those on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,386
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:41am Jun 14, 2016 1:41am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I think TF is positioned for a reversion with some put verts he put on some time ago. Me, I'm waiting a bit here to see if VIX makes 25 and then will play with potential setups ... . I've looked at few call diagonal setups in VXX, but I'd naturally like higher to slap those on ... .
Eyeballing something between VIX 25 and 30 to put on short vol trades in VXX, UVXY, or SVXY (whatever prices they're at at that point) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,387
  • Edited 2:11am Jun 14, 2016 1:50am | Edited 2:11am
Quoting peterdrill
Thanks to the fool for the vertical spread intake. You guys already into VXX puts? I believe we still have more upward trend before going into puts. Still holding my calls for both VXX and UVXY. Also holding my SVXY puts for today.
"buy low, sell high" the basic rule for all trading success - I bought VXX put spreads (calendars) even when the strikes were itm, because they were cheap, among other reasons, noted above.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,388
  • Jun 14, 2016 3:45am Jun 14, 2016 3:45am
Both VXX and UVXY doing well in pre market today. Hopeful for another upwards blast in option calls.
  • #13,389
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:29am Jun 14, 2016 11:29am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For tomorrow: RUT July 1st 1075/1085/1190/1200 Iron Condor Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPY due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (The smaller alternative is IWM, but I have an IWM trade on already ... ). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% P50: 71% Max Profit: $340/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $660 Delta: -3.51/contract Theta: 12.26/day/contract Notes: Naturally, I'm looking at pricing in the off hours, so...
Filled this puppy for a $345/contract credit at open -- $5 above the mid ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,390
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:32am Jun 14, 2016 11:32am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Rolled the call side on my remaining "monster" SPX iron condor, from June 24th 2145/2155 down to 2130/2140 for an additional $105/contract, resulting in a June 24th SPX 2045/2055/2145/2155 iron condor. Still shooting to take it off at the original profit target of 50% max or about $150/contract ... . Last week, was getting a little concerned about the call side; with these last few days of price action, now I'm starting to fidget over the put ... . Amazing how a few days can make a huge difference in how your setups are doing ... . Tomorrow,...
And ... rolling the call side down again from 2130/2140 to 2120/2135 for an additional $150 credit (as well as locking in $90/contract in profit). Had to widen a strike, since you can't roll within the same expiry to the same strike (i.e., from 2130/2140 to 2120/2130, ist verboten). So now I've got a 2045/2055/2120/2135 iron condor with 9 DTE. Probs the last adjustment I'll do here with so little time left ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,391
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:39am Jun 14, 2016 11:39am
June FOMC - you have to expect JY will try to soove the fever brow of her pimpmasters on WS, promise punch, pony rides, whatever it takes to keep the Brexit boogieman away, if only for a few days....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,392
  • Edited 9:45pm Jun 14, 2016 11:45am | Edited 9:45pm
Did literally stumble across another underlying that you can use to play Europe -- EFA (your other choices are HEDJ, FEZ, both of which suck from an options liquidity standpoint).

Like SPY, IWM, QQQ, the thing is heavily skewed to the put side, but I can almost milk a $100 credit out of a "classic" skewed instrument short strangle (i.e., short put at 85% prob OTM strike; short call at 75%) ... . Meh, I'll stick to the US indices, since the only reason that thing's high option volume now is because of Brexit; it'll dry up afterwards ... .

The other play I looked at is TLT/TBT; TLT's at a fairly significant high; TBT (its inverse, at a low). I used to be in those on a regular basis, but the volatility in them is piss poor virtually all the time in spite of their movement ... . TBT's IVR is supposedly at 100 for the last 52 weeks, but I just can't get something decent out of the thing ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,393
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:49am Jun 14, 2016 11:49am
Quoting The Fool
June FOMC - you have to expect JY will try to soove the fever brow of her pimpmasters on WS, promise punch, pony rides, whatever it takes to keep the Brexit boogieman away, if only for a few days....
The standard fair is for her to evidence Fed concern over "market uncertainty," ring our hands for us, and then push back the hike until another "concern" surfaces, at which time they'll push it back some more ... . Looking more and more like just one more hike this year ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,394
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:52am Jun 14, 2016 11:52am
Apparently, you can just throw an errant tweet out into the ether, throwing the markets into a modicum of chaos, and then delete it later, no probs ... . http://news.forexlive.com/!/more-bre...afoot-20160614
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,395
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:55am Jun 14, 2016 11:55am
ECB/BOE gots your back in the event of Brexit. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0Z01NP (BOE/ECB pledge to "backstop" markets in the event of market chaos post-Brexit). So keep buying those fucking dips; you'll be fine ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,396
  • Jun 14, 2016 12:31pm Jun 14, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The other play I looked at is TLT/TBT; TLT's at a fairly significant high; TBT (its inverse, at a low). I used to be in those on a regular basis, but the volatility in them is piss poor virtually all the time in spite of their movement ... . TBT's IVR is supposedly at 100 for the last 52 weeks, but I just can't get something decent out of the thing ... .
TLT should print some long red donkey dicks back towards $130 if the Brexit vote fails.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,397
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:28pm Jun 14, 2016 1:28pm
closed some VXX 50c and $1 debit spreads at around 65% maxP today, these are some stragglers for Jun 17 and a couple for Jun 24, just trying to lock in some profits while I can in case the long vol dream goes south....I still have lots of long vol trades running for Jun 24 and beyond.

TDA still pissin me off, I have to call in trades now, their system can not seem to recognize a debit spread that is staring it in the robot face, and keeps dinging me for maintenance margin. The humans there have been ...meh...about being smarter than the machine, but have generally come thru for me, after making me spend 30m on the phone with them first thing in the morning...hey thanks a lot, humans....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,398
  • Jun 14, 2016 6:36pm Jun 14, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
closed some VXX 50c and $1 debit spreads at around 65% maxP today, these are some stragglers for Jun 17 and a couple for Jun 24, just trying to lock in some profits while I can in case the long vol dream goes south....I still have lots of long vol trades running for Jun 24 and beyond. TDA still pissin me off, I have to call in trades now, their system can not seem to recognize a debit spread that is staring it in the robot face, and keeps dinging me for maintenance margin. The humans there have been ...meh...about being smarter than the machine,...
Ugh. That's somewhat concerning ... . I have difficulty doing squat at work in terms of trading -- a glance at break, over lunch, at most. The vast majority of trades, I have to set up either the night before or before open and don't have much time to tweak fill price and all that fun stuff if I have to; if it fills, it fills "as is" ... . If it doesn't, I have to shoot for it another day ... . Having a "system" get in the way ... . Not my idea of a good time.

They say we've "come a long way" since E*Trade rolled out its online trading platform in the early 90s (which I used to daytrade stocks, actually). Back then, your phone still rang with a "margin call". Although you don't get the "call" anymore (you get a flag and an email), not sure stuff like this is an improvement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,399
  • Jun 14, 2016 6:45pm Jun 14, 2016 6:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Ugh. That's somewhat concerning ... . I have difficulty doing squat at work in terms of trading -- a glance at break, over lunch, at most. The vast majority of trades, I have to set up either the night before or before open and don't have much time to tweak fill price and all that fun stuff if I have to; if it fills, it fills "as is" ... . If it doesn't, I have to shoot for it another day ... . Having a "system" get in the way ... . Not my idea of a good time. They say we've "come a long way" since E*Trade rolled out its online trading platform...
Another glitch I've noticed, but primarily in Dough ... . Generally speaking, the setups appear as "categorized" trades in the platform (i.e., "vertical," "strangle," "iron condor," etc.). You can naturally not "group them up," but then you've got long call, long call, long call, long call, short call, short call, short call with expiry dates next to them, which is a mess, particularly if you have multiple spreads on in a single expiry.

Of course, I've got everything grouped up because if I put a 210/213 short call spread trade on in SPY, I generally want to take that same 210/213 spread off when I close. Every so often, however, Dough "ungroups" these trades so that I have to figure out what goes with what. It's okay if you're doing a "one off" trade in NFLX (easy to figure out an ungrouped short strangle; there's only two pieces to the "puzzle"), but if you've got 20 different setups on in SPY (i.e., 20 short call spreads and 20 short put spreads), it's a mess, it's work, and it's aggravating ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,400
  • Jun 14, 2016 6:47pm Jun 14, 2016 6:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}TLT should print some long red donkey dicks back towards $130 if the Brexit vote fails.
I'll be watching for the "long red donkey dicks" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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