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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,061
  • Edited 8:11am Jun 16, 2016 6:42am | Edited 8:11am

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11a +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


++++Currently Euro is trading 1.117x++++

only for those SHORT ALREADY IN THE CONTEST

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*


First target hit. How would you manage the position:


Clear all


Nay

hoom

goosebone

PAStalker

clayjay

Fadhl

Pixie666


Trail to BE

eborn

Grinsakh


I changed my mind after the dovish FED

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,062
  • Edited 7:03am Jun 16, 2016 6:52am | Edited 7:03am
Most probably Im absolutely not in sync with E/U But this is what I would (not doing as I have some wild short positions in equities. guess better to be not much exposed due to brexit) do:

I changed my mind after the dovish FED

Reason? My lvls may be wrong BUT: we on low of short term range - short term neutral - I trade into middle - proposition for risk-off as I expect carry trade to prevail over dollar strength (e.g. more flows from UK to EU than USA)
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  • #141,063
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:59am Jun 16, 2016 6:59am
Sit tight until 1.100
  • #141,064
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:03am Jun 16, 2016 7:03am

  1. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"

  • #141,065
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:04am Jun 16, 2016 7:04am
In my case, it would trail to BE.
  • #141,066
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:10am Jun 16, 2016 7:10am
3. Trail to BE. "I am not sure better grab something before is too late"

but i bow down to chester and his bold call. gl man=)
  • #141,067
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:22am Jun 16, 2016 7:22am
Nay!
  • #141,068
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:31am Jun 16, 2016 7:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} . Don't forget that a Vote out will despite killing the golden goose for the UK economy (financial services in London) will force a HUGE relocation of major financial flows from London (which is still in size the largest financial center in the WROLD !!!) ... sisse
You assume that the City of London's competitive advantage is dependent on unfettered access to the single market, without considering that actually an EU exit would enable Britain to broker trade deals with emerging markets that previously were not possible due to the trade restrictions imposed from Brussels, and these new trade deals could well pay far bigger dividends for the financial services sector in the UK than it has been able to within the EU.

You also ignore other significant advantages that are intrinsic to the UK that have helped place it at the very centre of the global financial services sector including the UK's legal system, the English language, a convenient timezone, and a huge amount of expertise in support services such as accounting and law.

A leave vote will certainly have short term ramifications for the UK's financial services sector, but the mid to long term would see it not only retaining its pre-eminent position, but strengthening it as we turn to emerging markets denied to us by EU membership.

So no, your argument doesn't hold water at all Sisse.
  • #141,069
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:36am Jun 16, 2016 7:36am
Nay, il sit tight and ride it
  • #141,070
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:47am Jun 16, 2016 7:47am
Quoting cat
{quote} A leave vote will certainly have short term ramifications for the UK's financial services sector, but the mid to long term would see it not only retaining its pre-eminent position, but strengthening it as we turn to emerging markets denied to us by EU membership. So no, your argument doesn't hold water at all Sisse.
The quote you clipped is from subsection entitled "=> Knee jerk reaction via risk:"
Under main heading "-->Economic Impact of UK referendum for trading<--"

So maybe in that context not so much disagreement between your points of view?
  • #141,071
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:56am Jun 16, 2016 7:56am
sisse,

Thanks so much for your compliment! Means alot. I wish I had the confidence to know when to trade, how to trade, how to manage the trade and understand Market Expectations. In every one of these categories I struggle daily. I am getting better but not to the point I am confident I KNOW its the right call and being managed correctly.

Your analysis and time you put in here giving us the FA to the Market is so invaluable along with the TA part of it too! I can't applaud you enough nor say it in words on how much I respect and am in awe of you for all your efforts here to educate us.

Thanks again! I appreciate these iteration exercises!
  • #141,072
  • Jun 16, 2016 7:58am Jun 16, 2016 7:58am
our analysis gave out +120pips since yester night , we wait for next move
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bakare
  • #141,073
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:09am Jun 16, 2016 8:09am
3.TRAIL TO BE
  • #141,074
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:12am Jun 16, 2016 8:12am
Quoting cat
{quote} You assume that the City of London's competitive advantage is dependent on unfettered access to the single market, without considering that actually an EU exit would enable Britain to broker trade deals with emerging markets that previously were not possible due to the trade restrictions imposed from Brussels, and these new trade deals could well pay far bigger dividends for the financial services sector in the UK than it has been able to within the EU. You also ignore other significant advantages that are intrinsic to the UK that have helped...
Disclosure: I am not British and i dont care either way for the Brexit vote but I have been in the market for a long time and I have seen a thing or two, having experienced a few financial crises closely, as a trader in the banking sector, and having lived in several European cities, among them London.

After Sep 11, what saved the UK was that all the American banks relocated from Frankfurt to London, which was a virtual ghost town at the time with plenty of office space available for rent. That created a trend that forced European and Asian banks to establish serious offices (not just satellite) in London as well. This whole move was possible because UK was still part of the EU, because the US/Asian banks could still have their foot in the EU without being located in the Eurozone, ie. Frankfurt. But if the UK leaves the EU, the foreign banks might still continue to have some presence in London, but surely the UK's most prized asset, the financial center, will lose significant power as the same US/Asian banks will have to move back to big financial centers of Eurozone, most probably Frankfurt and Paris.

As far as convenient timezone is concerned, as a trader, I hated my life in London because I had to get up an hour earlier than all my colleagues in continental Europe to trade the same market. And concerning the support services, I am not exactly sure what you are referring to but all the back office support (trade settlement, etc) of more or less every bank located in London is in India...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,075
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:14am Jun 16, 2016 8:14am
Very sharp moves across the board with thin markets and jitters before NY.

Lots of noise and announcements from the UK front. Most big companies and banks starting to trigger contingency plans for next week and the domino will extend from CB to the mid size businesses. Expecting strong flows clashing in the process.

On iteration 11. Longs triggered with the test 1.115x RIGHT on time for NY.....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,076
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:22am Jun 16, 2016 8:22am
Watch-out as expected FTSE 5900,x being tested right now as it will trigger major break down alerts if taken and will carry the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,077
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:31am Jun 16, 2016 8:31am
Quoting sisse
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11a +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.117x++++ only for those SHORT ALREADY IN THE CONTEST -> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* First target hit. How would you manage the position: Clear all Nay hoom goosebone PAStalker clayjay...
Sisse,
first thing I want to say thumb up for your teaching effort. Beside being valuable for both new and not so new traders it shows you have both your heart and your head in the right place.


EURUSD Comment:
I would look at Daily candle close before deciding about anything becouse I have a feeling it can be bearish engulfing. After not raising rates and dovish Yellen we can think that Brexit risk is taking over here and if bearish engulfing after yesterday big event not raising rates there is much more potencial for downside.
PVSRA Clue: it is coming out of bearish Daily trend.
General clue: breaking the channel.
PVSRA clue: And below both 50ema and 200ema on Daily.

So nice bearish potencial for more downside at least to RWL and the reason why I don't want to kill that trade yet.
But we have to see Daily close to decide about that.

Maybe you set the question too early? ( just and opinion)
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Also, I decided to open EU short after I noticed that it is reaching 1.125 level too early ( that was after you closed bets for the contest, before any decision about rates came out), makes me wondering if you did not make them decide too early too. PA gave clues just before the action, becouse it went up too early for significant upside ( also usual PVSRA clue- for bullish PA would have to be held down longer and not escape up so early in the most important day of the month).
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PVSRA
  • #141,078
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:31am Jun 16, 2016 8:31am
Quoting cat
.... A leave vote will certainly have short term ramifications for the UK's financial services sector, but the mid to long term would see it not only retaining its pre-eminent position, but strengthening it as we turn to emerging markets denied to us by EU membership. So no, your argument doesn't hold water at all Sisse.
You are missing the point and as somebody else above mentioned: "short term reaction via risk for trading"

  1. We are talking about the nearly a trillion dollars that are move for EU related and transactions flows that London has a MAJOR role on it. Vote OUT and that money WILL relocate somewhere else inside of the EU like it or not.
  2. That large flows in the short term is a heavy blow and will have a huge impact in the short term and for trading.
  3. I am sure cities like London will rediscover and refund themselves as they always do and London Financial sector will find a new niche ..but it wont be EVER managing the financial flows of the largest trading block in the world if they are out...

This is a fact not an assumption. We'll discuss the mid term impact in later post for now lets get NY rolling ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,079
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:38am Jun 16, 2016 8:38am
sisse,

Re: FTSE.....Why is 590X more relevant over 5870 which is a KEY level I was targeting? I am looking at it from a MONTHLY and WEEKLY chart.

Thanks
  • #141,080
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:43am Jun 16, 2016 8:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are missing the point and as somebody else above mentioned: "short term reaction via risk for trading" We are talking about the nearly a trillion dollars that are move for EU related and transactions flows that London has a MAJOR role on it. Vote OUT and that money WILL relocate somewhere else inside of the EU like it or not. That large flows in the short term is a heavy blow and will have a huge impact in the short term and for trading. I am sure cities like London will rediscover and refund themselves as they always do and London Financial...
Okay, we are traders, and so I understand the discussion relates to the short term impact on trading conditions and what to expect whether we vote to leave or stay. My view on the longer term ramifications are irrelevant for those of us viewing this so I won't expand upon them any further. Personally I don't actually expect a Brexit even though I'll be voting for one, and when the results come in I'll most likely be well clear anyway and waiting for the dust to settle.
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