The Really Useless Thread

not sure what you are saying re: connection between QE and "no Brexit".....also, when most of the world says "risk on" they mean a bullish condition, i.e., it's ok to put assets at risk; "risk off" of course the converse, take your risk trades off.....sometimes it seems apparent that you flip that normal connotation. ?

Third update from the FED. Sisse never leave a conversation open even if when wrong...jejeje. This one is @Fool with a mini chart for the record



--> Confirming short term outlook in US equites in sell till risk is clear.

While keeping a very close eye in the UK vote to stay in Europe as we will enter automatically in RMT for July and the mid term will be in play and to the other side Europe descending in chaos will carry the US no doubt about it and some of the loud voices from outside against the UK staying will start regretting and feeling the pain ...

sisse

PS:
Sorry I meant risk on mode in terms of the context that we entering in risk as primary mover ad shaker....My bad as I know what you mean and you are right point that out ...

Sure we are in risk off in financial terms ...

...and finally the key one. Dollar held 94.4x for the FED as expected via risk on sight:

--> Keeping short term outlook in DOLLAr in buy despite a dovish FED via RISK.

Same as in Equities but with steroids in terms of the potential impact. If UK trigger panic, dollar will blow a few handles up non stop no questions ask and no tickets for anybody who is not already in, while a UK in will put as in RMT meaning a more natural ebb and flow until July...

sisse

sure, ...well I don't trust "the market" as any kind of system of "price discovery" anymore; it's the plaything of the heavy-handed CB's...so, for years now, trading the markets boils down to crumbs of wisdom like, "Don't Fight the Fed." etc, etc...and the CBankers' every word and fart is parsed and sniffed ad nauseum. I expect this will go on until the next World War, when the markets and the Bankers and the pundits will all be vaporized. In the few weeks or days leading up to that, my long volatility trades will make me insanely rich, on paper, so I will be gloating from my bunker....

...I am counting on at least a little "sell the rumor" action into next week, right up to Brexit Day

I'd bet the Brexit vote will be a lot more of a binary event (for US equities) than it seems some believe: stocks will drop pretty fast down below /es 1,900 on Brexit, and rally to new ath's within a week following Bremain. I play these binary events with ^vix product options anymore, am heavily jacked into long volatility off a Brexit, a "leave" result. These anti-establishment statements are quite the fashion these days.

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.122x++++

Update 1

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 6 hours 0 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

Red Pirate

Vorex

ptoftangency

Decima

glassblower

No touch (for 3 days) TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

hoom

clayjay

eborn

chester123

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

Grinsakh

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

Shorts hands triggered with the news. However as widely suspected RISK is and will be the king maker until next week as no rates June were pretty much a done deal and expectation of a timid FED cause of 'Global risks' were a no brainer call. As soon as we clear that, we will start going full motion in the FED very weird outlook on inflation for the mid term...

Whatever the case for the next few sessions. The best call at least from a strictly TA map perspective we have been talking in these exercises is BY A MILE from IMARICH1:

Don't doubt yourself mate. You are sitting in the right position for the analysis you made and the map and chart in play.

Its the first time you went flawlessly in the analysis, read expectations and put it in a proper map and more importantly SAT TIGHT against everybody else and CALL IT those are traits of a very good trader and consistency knocking on the door ...2 Thumbs up from sisse!!!!

You may not get your first target because of thin markets until the UK vote can spike you out. Even if you don't make a winner. as the highs are naked. ITS THE BEST CALL YOU HAVE MADE since we started this chat. VERY WELL DONE !!!

On the zigzag again no... a zigzag means:

-> UP -> Down -> UPPPP or
-> Down -> UP -> DOWNNNNNN

so those levels you fill don't correspond to a zigzag play ...

sisse

Yes exactly thats the main point I wanted to discuss about the Brexit and the impact for trading but we got a bit distracted wit the politics of it the other day.

This will make a large series of post with lots of info to digest but lets start with the main points and move forward in the next few days.

-->Economic Impact of UK referendum for trading<--

There are basically 2 main point to track/trade:

1. The short term knee jerk reaction via risk with vote out or clearing the risk hedges and bets with vote in; and
2. The mid and long term potential impact of the UK in or out and the implications for Europe and the global economy.

=> Knee jerk reaction via risk:

1. Usually in such large and scheduled risk events, the boats are too loaded and the coverage is too noisy so they usually end up a bit of flop. However nobody sane wants to be caught in the wrong side with such an obvious potential risk event.

1. What it usually happens is the opposite of the risk play so that a VOTE in will trigger better trading opportunities in the short term with large hands, funds and hedges cleaning all the risk bets right after a positive vote is confirmed

1. As Fool well pointed out is primarily a binary even in the short term. However, the implications of the vote out are so complex and risky that uncertainty and panic can easily hit obviously the UK first but spread across Europe in a couple of sessions making a simple binary event an avalanche of major proportions that US wont be able to hold it steady. It will hold much better in the mid term but wont hold a panic leg.

1. Don't forget that a Vote out will despite killing the golden goose for the UK economy (financial services in London) will force a HUGE relocation of major financial flows from London (which is still in size the largest financial center in the WROLD !!!) to:
   

    

   1. ​to the EU first (Frankfurt one of the biggest winners) as all EU transactions that are manly base in London will leave in less than few hours after the announcement
   2. To Switzerland (another major winner from a exit vote) as why bother having a financial base outside of the EU that will have no less than 5 years to re regulate everything but more importantly why bother leaving in a risk environment with higher TAXES when you have the almighty swiss outside of the EU but in Europe already ...
   3. To lesser extend Singapore and Dubai financial markets will benefit from some of the funds and flows relocations especially in wealth management funds and in FX
   4. and NY that will happily take anything else left of the table including all the new and growing FINTECH startups that are currently base in London.

1. As you can see this is one of the major REAL impacts in the very short term beyond the actual risk on and off binary impact from a Vote out. Obviously you clearly don't want to be in the middle of those flows as there will be blood and lots of it. Big bastards will kill each other for such big prize and it can easily degenerate in a snowball...

...this is just the tip of the iceberg ....we'll continue with some other short term impact and how to trade them later...

sisse

These posts are like the most exciting chapters of the best novel Ive ever read lol, and Ive read a lot

lol you are such a market geek ...welcome to the club...

sisse

Quad Witching - you don't wanna be rolling into no Brexit week, do ya?.....risk-off indeed
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/...lewitching.asp

FED held, BOJ held, SNB held, BOE on the go in a few but I am more interested today in the numbers later from NY as the inflation outlook from the FED still doesn't convince me AT all ...something smell fishy or something very ugly is cooking in the background ...

In any case, European markets walking on eggshells. FTSE is the leading indicator to track across the world until next week. All eyes on 5900.x for the BOE and beyond as UK equities losing floor will unlock a rather fast and quick leg to 5300.xx even before the Vote and will carry the board across Europe and beyond...

On the rest, nothing new until NY reports but expecting a very jittery end of the week....

sisse

Sisse, but whats strange with inflation? Basically: yesterday projection made no change from previous - just absolutely marginal upward revision. Median is expected 1,7% PCE by year end up from 1,6% PCE in march projection. Now we at 1,6% PCE (april). Is this the problem? It seems they dont believe the uptick/expect something?

I am referring to expectations more than the projections.

There are 2 parts to analyse and understand when FED will hike:

1. Is employment and we are officially a tick better than FULL employment (measured as 4.8% rate according to the FED benchmark) since last announcement (despite the poor NFP) so thats more than [CHECK]
2. The second one and the only 'excuse' to not hike yet was INFLATION (which has been below target the last 4 years).

--> Expectations were building that inflation will hit target this year especially after the bottom and bounce in OIL. Since last hike Yellen and most of the FED members have been permanently repeating that they are 'confident, etc etc that inflation will see the 2% target.

Even last week Yellen was rather vocal about the impact of higher OIL prices and how Dollar has stabilised and labour markets have improve blah blah and she was fully confident that inflation will meet the target relatively soon. She literally said " Expect inflation to move back to 2%,...

--> I know mass media was focused yesterday on the headline and the dots and etc (which it wasn't really important this time as the no hike and timid July was a done deal for the markets before the announcement) but if you pay attention to details and where the REAL hints lay down:

 

1. Yesterday in a rather weird turn of heart and tone suddenly inflation is going to flop. Which doesn't really match the latest reports on inflation numbers and more strongly sounds a bit of either a move to keep the FED short term dovish for a potential risk in play or that things are turning very sour on the background and we'll have a sharp correction in the US economy that will drag down inflation in the next Quarter.

I will particularly pay close attention to the upcoming inflation numbers in the next few weeks ...

sisse

ohhhh very good eye!

...and first target hit with a test 1.117x. No surprises in the flow so far well done all bears. All open and in play for the rest but opening a new question:

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.117x++++

Update 2

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 12 hours 0 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

Red Pirate

Vorex

ptoftangency

Decima

glassblower

No touch (for 3 days) TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

hoom

clayjay

eborn

chester123

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

Grinsakh

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11a +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.117x++++

only for those SHORT ALREADY IN THE CONTEST

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

First target hit. How would you manage the position:

1. Clear all "is too risky and uncertain out there with the UK and all that"
2. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"
3. Trail to BE. "I am not sure better grab something before is too late"
4. I changed my mind after the dovish FED "I am playing the reverso 1.117x -> to the long targets"

If you don't answer its assume you stay put. Limited time to decide as markets can move rather quick at these levels..

sisse

Nay

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Opening question 11a +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.117x++++

only for those SHORT ALREADY IN THE CONTEST

-> LMT SELL 1.125x [CHECK]-> TP1 => 1.117x[check] | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Clear all

Nay

hoom

goosebone

Trail to BE

I changed my mind after the dovish FED

Nay

1. Nay. "Nothing to see here I will sit tight and ride it"

I think 1.129x is the rate differential flip and will hold till after Brexit...momentum is with the trade, no point in getting out..