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AUD/USD

  • #97,721
  • Jun 15, 2016 4:29am Jun 15, 2016 4:29am
weird. the 200hma, 100hma and 100dma all converging on the 7392-96 area.... but the fella is just clinging around there and moving casually above and below the area as if it doesnt exist. silent market awaiting the fed huh i thought my idea to short at 7390 would yield something but it's starting to look fruitless. maybe i should go out for lunch.
  • #97,722
  • Jun 15, 2016 4:58am Jun 15, 2016 4:58am
at the risk of being repetitive, a long time ago in forex terms the ARBA dropped interest rates and I missed a sell above 0.749, I waited and did so not long ago.
Now I have a pending to do it again
  • #97,723
  • Jun 15, 2016 5:32am Jun 15, 2016 5:32am
no, it is not silent market. it is just a break after a strong rise in price. if you are a bear, then it is your last chance getting out of the trap. I see a very strong bull trend coming, 1000pips at least
  • #97,724
  • Jun 15, 2016 6:01am Jun 15, 2016 6:01am
Quoting socnau
no, it is not silent market. it is just a break after a strong rise in price. if you are a bear, then it is your last chance getting out of the trap. I see a very strong bull trend coming, 1000pips at least
Insightful. Glad you're here to guide us.So in the real world I'm expecting some dovish Yellen but wont be ruling out rate rise this year, she will wait for better (normal) employment figures.
  • #97,725
  • Jun 15, 2016 10:02am Jun 15, 2016 10:02am
RBA's last cut told market, they care about inflation rate. High AUD means low inflation rate, high labor cost, low investment increasing rate in housing market. AUD uptrend is limited.
  • #97,726
  • Jun 15, 2016 12:57pm Jun 15, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Insightful. Glad you're here to guide us.So in the real world I'm expecting some dovish Yellen but wont be ruling out rate rise this year, she will wait for better (normal) employment figures.
I won't be surprised if they are a bit hawkish to provide stability for Brexit but don't expect a rate rise this meet
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,727
  • Jun 15, 2016 2:20pm Jun 15, 2016 2:20pm
Come on you beauty

0.81 here we come!

Add new longs after first red H4 candle with a good body, then next push up, wait for second close of a candle if first closed red, break above and here we go above 0.75 targeting 0.81
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5.png Size: 32 KB
  • #97,728
  • Edited Jun 16, 2016 2:25am Jun 15, 2016 2:46pm | Edited Jun 16, 2016 2:25am
Quoting otttkris
Come on you beauty 0.81 here we come! Add new longs after first red H4 candle with a good body, then next push up, wait for second close of a candle if first closed red, break above and here we go above 0.75 targeting 0.81 {image} {image}
I don't want to be rude or something like that but do you know the meaning of the expression: "cannon fodder" ?
  • #97,729
  • Jun 15, 2016 3:10pm Jun 15, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting otttkris
Come on you beauty 0.81 here we come! Add new longs after first red H4 candle with a good body, then next push up, wait for second close of a candle if first closed red, break above and here we go above 0.75 targeting 0.81 {image} {image}

oil might mess up whole plan.
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #97,730
  • Jun 15, 2016 5:34pm Jun 15, 2016 5:34pm
Quoting otttkris
Come on you beauty 0.81 here we come! Add new longs after first red H4 candle with a good body, then next push up, wait for second close of a candle if first closed red, break above and here we go above 0.75 targeting 0.81 {image} {image}
.61 here we come more like it.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,731
  • Jun 16, 2016 12:19am Jun 16, 2016 12:19am
RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks (Canceled)

Christopher Kent
Assistant Governor
Speaks in lieu
http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/...016-06-16.html


"For Australia, the primary risk posed by the uncertain outlook in China is to commodity prices and the exports of goods (particularly resources) and services. A depreciation of the Australian dollar in response to negative developments in external conditions could be expected to act as a buffer in the way that it has in the past."

The Aussie dollar looks more to the down side over the next 12 months.
Target range .65 to .60
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,732
  • Jun 16, 2016 1:40am Jun 16, 2016 1:40am
Quoting PaulDaemon
RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks (Canceled) Christopher Kent Assistant Governor Speaks in lieu http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/...016-06-16.html "For Australia, the primary risk posed by the uncertain outlook in China is to commodity prices and the exports of goods (particularly resources) and services. A depreciation of the Australian dollar in response to negative developments in external conditions could be expected to act as a buffer in the way that it has in the past." The Aussie dollar looks more to the down side over the next...

expect NZD to follow.
Good news for me

"ANZ: WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE EXTENT OF THE WEAKNESS IN AUSTRALIAN INFLATION WILL PROMPT THE BANK TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN AUGUST BY 25BPS, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS A VERY CLOSE CALL"
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #97,733
  • Jun 16, 2016 1:53am Jun 16, 2016 1:53am
Double rejection candles. I doubt it will go higher from now. More likely, downside is opening up
Attached Image
  • #97,734
  • Jun 16, 2016 5:14am Jun 16, 2016 5:14am
Lets buy some AUD, it doesn't seem it wants to go down, bought, 0.7364, sl 30 pips
  • #97,735
  • Jun 16, 2016 12:22pm Jun 16, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting Vorex
Lets buy some AUD, it doesn't seem it wants to go down, bought, 0.7364, sl 30 pips
on the other hand would you note that despite a wave of good news and factors, the AUD has failed to climb or sustain at a higher level? it's honestly beginning to look a convincing sell. note also that generally a lot of ccy pairs moved the other way, possibly due in part to false rumours over brexit following the shooting earlier. so the recovery from 7280ish in the past few hours may well be a bluff. we'll see i guess. trade safe!
  • #97,736
  • Jun 16, 2016 12:54pm Jun 16, 2016 12:54pm
long from 73005 holding position to test 200ma on the H! chart if a open above 200ma will add to position for TP @ 75000
  • #97,737
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:19pm Jun 16, 2016 8:19pm
Quoting Vorex
Lets buy some AUD, it doesn't seem it wants to go down, bought, 0.7364, sl 30 pips
I went to sleep to wake up to find it has hit my sl & it went down even further and then made a great come back, wtf happened yesterday? I'm looking at EUR, GBP, UJ, EJ, they all made a huge recovery, wow, lets find out.
my UJ Long is doing great so far so that's good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #97,738
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:23pm Jun 16, 2016 8:23pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} on the other hand would you note that despite a wave of good news and factors, the AUD has failed to climb or sustain at a higher level? it's honestly beginning to look a convincing sell. note also that generally a lot of ccy pairs moved the other way, possibly due in part to false rumours over brexit following the shooting earlier. so the recovery from 7280ish in the past few hours may well be a bluff. we'll see i guess. trade safe!
AUD fell because of AJ falling and then when that stopped, EU started falling and took AUD down with it, even oil was falling.
  • #97,739
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:10pm Jun 16, 2016 10:10pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} I went to sleep to wake up to find it has hit my sl & it went down even further and then made a great come back, wtf happened yesterday? I'm looking at EUR, GBP, UJ, EJ, they all made a huge recovery, wow, lets find out. my UJ Long is doing great so far so that's good. {image}
Indeed what a whiplash, i had many break-even trades in recent days.

Intraday trades will be okay, long term trades are not really ideal with Brexit next week. Whiplashes are so common, unless one can stomach 100pips movement without perspiring.

I will be minimizing on my trading until Brexit is done. No idea when some unknown poll results or violence will take place again.

RIP Jo Cox
  • #97,740
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:26am Jun 17, 2016 1:26am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Indeed what a whiplash, i had many break-even trades in recent days. Intraday trades will be okay, long term trades are not really ideal with Brexit next week. Whiplashes are so common, unless one can stomach 100pips movement without perspiring. I will be minimizing on my trading until Brexit is done. No idea when some unknown poll results or violence will take place again. RIP Jo Cox
Poor woman, RIP, very sad, I guess this increases the chances of Bremain which means GBP going higher.
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