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  • #141,021
  • Jun 15, 2016 12:54pm Jun 15, 2016 12:54pm
gl all ... vibrations coming ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,022
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:02pm Jun 15, 2016 1:02pm
Slightly dovish headline....

Sisse
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  • #141,023
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:09pm Jun 15, 2016 1:09pm
Dovish after first read.... yellen can kill it in a few. Watch out the floor in Dollar for the close

sisse
.... Short circuit on the macro numbers ... inflation expectation softening which don't really match the last numbers...
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  • #141,024
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:10pm Jun 15, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting sisse
Dovish after first read.... yellen can kill it in a few. Watch out the floor in Dollar for the close sisse
Expected ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,025
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:11pm Jun 15, 2016 1:11pm
no use of getting in ..... now
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  • #141,026
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:12pm Jun 15, 2016 1:12pm
changes ...clear dovish
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Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,027
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:15pm Jun 15, 2016 1:15pm
minimum 100 pips run expected ..... total dovish scene stilll nothing .... e/u under totall pressure .... big players dont even have faith in e/u
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  • #141,028
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:27pm Jun 15, 2016 1:27pm
a normal trading day is much better than the fomc meet ....
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  • #141,029
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:35pm Jun 15, 2016 1:35pm
as per her everything is almost mixed .... economic indicator .... etc etc

gradual hike expected ....

total BS
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  • #141,030
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:56pm Jun 15, 2016 1:56pm
It's doing what has been hinted at in the forums since the last nfp, no hike was already expected......the only way for this one to be a massive mover was for a surprise hike in the face of a horrid nfp. Otherwise chop and grind

The hikes play comes next nfp, that will give insight into whether or not we have 2, 1, or none hikes this year and answer as to whether or not the last nfp was an outlier or a sinister turn for the worse in usa job market

brexit of course the possible rain maker in between.
  • #141,031
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:58pm Jun 15, 2016 1:58pm
And that was pretty much it. No June hikes and very timid July as expected from the rates front. However on macro numbers a bit of a short-circuit inflation that don't really match with the latest numbers. Inline with expectations for the news flow and dovish for the mid term.

That will kill the FED and everything else till brexits. Risk in play from the close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,032
  • Jun 15, 2016 2:01pm Jun 15, 2016 2:01pm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,033
  • Jun 15, 2016 2:18pm Jun 15, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the day till the FED. Good time for an early assessment for today. => On the fundamental side. --> Not expecting much from the FED today on the rates front. No hikes is a done deal and a timid July hints if any given the risk in play is pretty much expected so the conference will be more important. However on the macro 2 key things to track for today: After the major flop in NFP (and this is the 2nd consecutive flop) all eyes are on FED macro outlook especially given that inflation keep ticking inline and slightly...
I feel like she talked more about uncertainty than usually

You wrote about dollar in that huge super post: but 2 questions:

Do we know that carry trade still applies to EUR? Are there some signs of that?
I guess its crucial Q since it seems markets are gonna jump into fisk-off mode very soon.

Are you gonna make any changes to oulooks?
  • #141,034
  • Jun 15, 2016 2:41pm Jun 15, 2016 2:41pm
While a dovish FED will just leave us in chop zone in neutral for a quick zigzag play .129X (check)targeting .139X until Risk momentum takes over in the next few sessions.
  • #141,035
  • Jun 15, 2016 2:50pm Jun 15, 2016 2:50pm
for now, all players sent the ball in the ground of Brexit!
  • #141,036
  • Jun 15, 2016 3:00pm Jun 15, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} I feel like she talked more about uncertainty than usually
Do we know that carry trade still applies to EUR?
Yes in all cases except in case of short term panic with Europe desintagrating in crumbs as Recession 2.0 with uncertainty will blow speculative short term carry trades.

Dont forget that 'timely' more QE from ECB officially kicks in the 22nd. Meaning no brexit, and Euro will be more carry than ever especially with hikes July cleared from 'global' risks...Are there some signs of that?

Yes EURO still holding 1.1080 despite the ECB and negative rates..

I guess its crucial Q since it seems markets are gonna jump into fisk-off mode very soon.

Yes we are in risk on since last week. We are officially rates off for a few weeks. Risk and Europea main dish next.

Are you gonna make any changes to oulooks?

yes
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,037
  • Jun 15, 2016 3:15pm Jun 15, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}Yes we are in risk on since last week. We are officially rates off for a few weeks. Risk and Europea main dish next. Are you gonna make any changes to oulooks? yes
Hi sisse,

Are you expecting the risk sentiment to change?

I am currently seeing strong weakening of the commodity currencies and further bearish movement for oil. All signs of markets going into risk-off mode.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #141,038
  • Jun 15, 2016 3:40pm Jun 15, 2016 3:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}Do we know that carry trade still applies to EUR? Yes in all cases except in case of short term panic with Europe desintagrating in crumbs as Recession 2.0 with uncertainty will blow speculative short term carry trades. Dont forget that 'timely' more QE from ECB officially kicks in the 22nd. Meaning no brexit, and Euro will be more carry than ever especially with hikes July cleared from 'global' risks...Are there some signs of that? Yes EURO still holding 1.1080 despite the ECB and negative rates.. I guess its crucial Q since it seems markets...
In my view: Right now not. Cuz the FED news flow is definitely nothing beyond the short term range (in E/U). However, I would expect some change in short term outlooks once the risk-off takes effect as there is time to create some wild short term moves.
  • #141,039
  • Jun 15, 2016 3:58pm Jun 15, 2016 3:58pm
First update after the FED:

--> Changing short term outlook in Yen from sell to buy until UK vote is cleared.

--> Re-confirming short term outlook in Gold in buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,040
  • Jun 15, 2016 4:03pm Jun 15, 2016 4:03pm
Second update from the FED also from indirect markets via risk in play till next week is cleared:

--> Aligning and Changing short term outlook in EUROZONE equities from buy to sell and in UK Equities from neutral to strong sell.

Key outlooks as Europe tripping next week via the UK can trigger a domino in the mid and long term legs for MAJOR WTF moves ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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