The Really Useless Thread

LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1

dam confused right now out of the market ... until fomc ...

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Made a bit of a c@ck up the other day....

Bought Cable based on MY expectation that the referendum will be a remain vote (I live in rural England).

Neglected to realise that my expectations don't matter where the market is concerned and that we are aligning for a leave result.

My chart below had mapped out my current range and areas for profit taking for both scenarios, North and south.
I may have lost a little money, but have learned a valuable lesson!

Table still open ...last seats available ...

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.122x++++

Risky Rates

IN

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

Red Pirate

Vorex

ptoftangency

Decima

glassblower

No touch (for 3 days) TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

hoom

clayjay

eborn

chester123

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

Grinsakh

LiquidGenius

dogytrader

Oshomac

suntan

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Sisse: Can you add me to the competition? I am not taking any positions until after the Feb today. I think either Fed will act today or at least give a hawkish tone like "increase in the next meeting" like they did before...

++++++TABLE CLOSED ++++++

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.122x++++

Risky Rates

Thanks all for jumping in and very good luck to all trading live the next legs.

Opening range is over with a positive tick in inflation related numbers and marginal better numbers from NY manufacturing. We are ready to roll for the FED as soon as Europe goes home...

sisse

Hey sisse u missed me...I would like BUY please again

edit: phone screen so small I didn't see. Thanks for letting me play and Good luck to all

Was listening to the BBC this morning...interviews with people in Liverpool about where they stand on the referendum. Lots of ambivalence: "You might as well flip a coin," said one - noting the choice was between useless bureaucrats in either Brussels or London and in neither case would a Liverpudlian have anything to cheer about. But nobody ever fails to note their perception of immigration as a negative, both culturally and economically. So the Brexit referendum is a referendum about immigration.

I'm sure you know infinitely more about why things may look differently to someone sitting in London vs. some decaying outlying burg. The "great cities" are both economic engines and economic vampires. I might suggest that the more a country is marked by extreme urbanization, the more likely the wealth of that country will be more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer hands.

..."advance humanity"....hmmm. Are all humans "equal"? Does a human born in Pakistan have a "right" to go anywhere, eat and poop and work anywhere, just because he's a human who is "equal" to anyone else? What is a human worth? Is it a positive value? (he/she can work, create things, tell jokes, etc). Or is it a negative value? (He/she is a consumer of scarce resources, a murderer of dolphins, a needy problem with a carbon footprint who can be taught to make rudimentary explosive devices.) Is there a number of humans in existence beyond which the "advancement" of humanity is negatively impacted?

...and that was pretty much it for the day till the FED.

Good time for an early assessment for today.

=> On the fundamental side.

--> Not expecting much from the FED today on the rates front. No hikes is a done deal and a timid July hints if any given the risk in play is pretty much expected so the conference will be more important. However on the macro 2 key things to track for today:

1. After the major flop in NFP (and this is the 2nd consecutive flop) all eyes are on FED macro outlook especially given that inflation keep ticking inline and slightly higher expectations than the FED previous forecast.
2. Global risk via the UK referendum.

--> Here expecting a cautious FED 'dismissive' of the last NFP until the next but a rather vocal FED sending strong hints that is prepare for 'global' risk events in the summer (a.k.a Brexit) that will unlock the momentum on the risk on leg that we are currently on until next week.

=> On the technical side.

--> US equities already cleared at the highs last week as discussed in the thread and we are officially in Choose your poison time 2097.xx is the rain maker. Failure to take it and sustain the break today after a dovish/inline FED will open the down side, first on risk via UK and after that on July hikes positioning. To the other side with a Hawkish or vocal FED will trigger RMT with the same outcome but in a faster wave. Only a extreme dovish FED will delay the outcome.....

--> Dollar if by now for those following this thread don't recognise what is in play ....well.... In any case, Choose your poison time in Dollar too 94.4x is the rain maker till the UK results. A inline FED will leave us chopping around for a few, however, if risk momentum is trigger right after the knee jerk reaction in the FED (as I think it will in the upcoming sessions) Dollar will start catching speed while in case of panic (hopefully not) via Europe descending into short term chaos the green will be one to sit and ride even before the push from rates....

--> On Commodities, they are rather in the back seat for the moment. Oil will move as collateral of macro numbers (49.4x -> 55.2) from the FED and only extreme risk will drag down (48.4x -> 46.2x) with Europe entering in recession 2.0 via the UK. Gold on the other hand in a very simple and nice map. Both inline and dovish FED with RisK for an easy ride 1280 -> 1340x while a hawkish will leave us with a limited move down in chop zone until UK vote is settle.

--> For the Actual flows (Euro only).

Markets set for a zigzag move.

Like always all micro levels raised during the announcement.

--> A shocking hike (not expected at all) will short-circuit all markets including the Euro that will be in a straight line to 1.091x and below in only a few sessions.
--> A slightly hawkish/risk averse/decent outlook FED will trigger a zigzag ___to ___with intermediate stop ___ before targeting ___ as final destination before the UK vote.
--> While a dovish FED will just leave us in chop zone in neutral for a quick zigzag play ___ targeting ____ until Risk momentum takes over in the next few sessions.

Gl all trading today ...and for those wondering the ____ well I challenge IMARICH1 to fill the blanks mentally ...we'll update the blanks later...

PS: As widely expected since the opening. Europe going home and euro ticking 1.125x ...

sisse

well I challenge IMARICH1 to fill the blanks mentally

I am already working on it! I remember our lesson on the zig-zag. Thanks! I feel rather alone in my position in this exercise. Even though Risk is on, the RMT (FED) is a Mover and Shaker and expectations are priced in IMO.

We trade expectations and not the FACT. But, we are in Neutral Outlook in EU and middle of Range and not at either extreme.

A slightly hawkish/risk averse/decent outlook FED will trigger a zigzag .125X(1) to .115x(2) with intermediate stop .122X(b) before targeting .105X as final destination before the UK vote.

X=.125X to 1=.115X to 2=.118X to a=.116X to b=.122X to .108X---struggled on the a,b, points.

While a dovish FED will just leave us in chop zone in neutral for a quick zigzag play .129X targeting .139X until Risk momentum takes over in the next few sessions.

super dovish FOMC is Wall Street's personal ass whore and will grovel before the specter of a mouse, or a Brexit or anything its Masters fear. The Fed is behind its markers now in all respects and is wholly Dow-dependent, not data-dependent. If the Brexit referendum fails (as the oligarchs must have it) there might be a July ffr hike and at most one more in 2016, in December.

[quote=sisse;8981298]...and that was pretty much it for the day till the FED. Good time for an early assessment for today. => On the fundamental side. --> Not expecting much from the FED today on the rates front. No hikes is a done deal and a timid July hints if any given the risk in play is pretty much expected so the conference will be more important. However on the macro 2 key things to track for today: After the major flop in NFP (and this is the 2nd consecutive flop) all eyes are on FED macro outlook especially given that inflation keep ticking inline and slightly higher expectations than the FED previous forecast. Global risk via the UK ......

Many thanks Sisse for a great analysis

This is not about politics or about emotional trading is about economics and monetary policy. The FED already overstayed with low rates in my books. The only real fear and risk will come from the FED not pulling the trigger straight away as we are edging towards a royal mess.That's a technical opinion not one related to oligarchs, brexits or bastards squeezing the FED free money.sisse

This is what they do.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/world-...20160615-00718
"The World Isn't Ready for Another Fed Increase"....lol, the World isn't ready for ever more billions of people to keep sucking it dry. Advancement of Humanity....sheesh. We are not going to go softly into some dreamy Star Trek future where everyone has something super fulfilling to do and they don't have to worry about struggling to survive. I am not going to go into the gory details of what's coming, because I don't want to scare the Children, but trust me, it's gonna suck.

let's all just be happy

Jejeje....Watchout u regret what you are saying sooner than you think. A tiny push from risk and FED may get stuck with inflation, Gk global economy in collapse and ZERO room for manoeuvre.... and we all for real will be sucking dry.. I hope not as that will be bad very bad for all and for real. sisse

Here we go....gl all.... updates on the close.

sisse