The Really Useless Thread

If the FED is dovish tomorrow and participants expect no rake hike in July (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...mc.html)..then a buy is the way to go to the 1.129x level..but the NFP may have been an outlier & the US data today was good, so a July hike may still be on..
but if Brexit is leading the euro after tomorrow's Fed..then a sell seems to be the best option as I think Brexit will happen..
The 3 day no touch looks very appealing..but I'm going with risk and a sell
-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Second Call !!!

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.120x++++

Risky Rates

IN

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

manosk

Earleone

chronical

Pharm0r

No touch (for 3 days) | 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) | 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP4 => 1.095x | STP => 1.132x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

hoom

clayjay

eborn

chester123

Pixie666

goosebone

PAStalker

Grinsakh (thx corrected)

try lmt buy.

place me in for BUY... got this technical level and expectations for no hike and no brexit

Green box is a daily supply zone for me

Good time to open the second topic for this month: Brexit.

Lot of noise now from everywhere but markets (and for those following these thread) were already well aware of the upcoming events before it got to the international mass media attention and the average Joe posting polls and tweets.

Whatever the case, the main issue with this topic is that it has been politicised and bastardised so much that its now just a combo of gossips, half truths, lots of scaremongering and all cover with a layer of nationalism and populist on top to make the whole issue a whore house instead of a technical, rational and economic discussion of the future of the UK and Europe.

I don't want to go deeper in the political side of this as I am sure we'll have plenty of time in the upcoming days to discuss. In a nutshell 4 main factors to understand the issue for those outside the UK:

1. There is huge generational distortion in the vote. A large majority (over 2/3) of the young population (16 to 35) are willing to remain while a even larger majority of old and retired folks are in favour of exit.

    

   1. Which is very tricky point. Retired (grand)Mom and pops with mortgage already paid are more interested in remembering some distant and long gone 'good old times' and that the local shop is serve by a white english with proper accent rather than the concerns of a super globalise and integrate young population that gives less priority to borders or people's passport colour over universal values and future economic opportunities.

   
   

2. The second one is a geographical problem. Large cities and the poorer regions in the UK are strongly in favour of staying in, while the midlands and the medium and some long forgotten cities and town are strongly in favour of Exit.

    

   1. Clearly there is huge group of people who have been marginalised by politicians in Westminster and in Europe in the last few years and the obvious reaction is to get a self identity in nationality and the typical things that come with it while the large cities (especially London) are well integrated in global markets and are already in 21st century in term of economic and social perceptions

   
   

3. Third and prolly more importantly ​Economic and political disparities across the UK. While London alone generates nearly 60% directly and indirectly (via the spillover effects) of the UK GDP, large regions in the UK are completely forgotten the last 30 years.

    

   1. Blaming migrants, EU and anything else make absolutely sense if you are stuck around there. Also massively importantly is the distribution of power. London almost monopolise power while Scotland and worst Wales and the rest of small Regions in England has nearly 0 influence in policy making (and sadly wont change with Brexit either.)​​

   
   

4. Finally there is strong educational gap. Over 70% of people with higher education will vote to remain even if they aren't all happy with how things are in Brussels, while a staggering 90% of people with no higher education are strongly in favour of the UKIP and the UK leaving the EU.

    

   1. Main issue is that is hard to generate a debate as every time a real Brexiter gives a good argument is meet with strong scaremongering and lies form the stay camp. While the opposite is even worst. If somebody remotely give a argument to why stay or why is bad to go is meet with large insults and flood of scaremongering blah ignore any rational or technical argument ....at the end lots of unaware voters are not having a chance to discuss real reasons for pro and against ...

At the end the whole debate has been hacked by populist, nationalism and scaremongering instead of a constructive positive debate. In an nutshell, the vote has become between going back to the 19th century (Brexit) with some long gone dreams of empire that is long forgotten or stay stuck in the 20th century (Remain as Cameron proposal) hoping that boycotting any idea to move forward in Europe is going to make the EU and Europe better and safer...

Like always shame on the stupid politicians are wasting a unique historic moment to move forward and put the UK on the front row for change instead of making little England an ostrich burying head in a tiny island pretending the 21st century is NOT here ...

--> Now that is a quick note on the political side but more importantly and relevant is what is the actual impact of the UK staying or leaving for trading ....thats is for next post as there is lots of potential juice in it ...

sisse

I'm short

sisse could you please correct typo? I believe STP is not same as TP1, should it be 1.132?

obvious buy

wow
or may be you can help "white europeans" about how to make some babys, or soon the land will be totaly left to others

"sand nigger ‎(plural sand niggers) (derogatory, offensive, ethnic slur) A person of Middle Eastern or North African descent."

--> First and for all, it we'll be very hard to impossible for a humanist, liberal, educated, cosmopolitan Londoner economist that has travel and live across the world to even remotely consider or even bother thinking backwards and believing little England in isolation of the world we'll be better off ...thats for ones ...

Second to your points:

je je you are starting to sound like that guy who gut banned talking about the devil , the Rothcilds and etc ...

--> For real come on mate. First the unelected politicians in Brussels are as unelected / or elected as the one in Westminster. Believe it of not .

--> Look let me tell you the main issue. I follow and believe in the principle not the details or the name of the actors. I don't get stuck in the names neither the colour of skin or passport. Bureaucracy and red tape is bad in Brussels or Westminster. I hate it. The UK leaving the EU wont change a single inch in that front and prolly gets even worst as it wont have counter check mechanism to concentrate power in a few hands.

--> Between us let me tell you the largest part of key legislation is made and lobbied in London not in Brussels believe it or not. Plus if you ever have been in Brussels and see the 'real Lobbying' groups from UK business groups sweeping and exchange legislation with other majors countries to take over some sectors or regions (you just have to see how the UK took over some sector in Eastern Europe with EU expansion) ....uff you don't want know ...obviously that wont make it to the British press worst to the average nationalistic voter either...

--> Only naive people think that decisions are not made here. You just have to go one day for lunch around the City and Mayfair and you will see where the REAL deals are made. Only UKIPPERS selling lies and very naive voters thing that the real deal is made in Brussels. The brexiters vote for the Eurocrats as much as they vote for local MPs but in both case don't have A SINGLE say in what will happen in the real $$$$ issues . Brexit wont change that. I can guarantee you as it happens everywhere in the world !!!!

--> Having work and live in both sides of the equation I can tell you between large organised lobbying groups in Brussels and the low profile Eatonian/Oxfbridge selected few in the UK calling the cards in Westminster ...by a long shot the latter are the worst and where the power is concentrate. At least in Brussels they are regulated and have competition from other 28 countries doing the same...in here uff my friend ... in Westminster the real Rotchilds LITERALLY call the shots while the minions think they will get a better deal (they actually will get less leverage as the large hands will monopolise public policy in the UK without any constrain) given a 100% monopoly of power to some groups on the UK...

At the end is not about multicultural utopia is about commons sense. Its about principle over bullshit. Its about real human values over archaic notions of nationhood ....and more importantly is about ECONOMICS !!!!but hey whatever rocks your boat...

sisse

theholy justice? (in fact ı dont believe in holy things and there may be a conection with WW)

sisse the only question is WHO is going to ACTUALLY vote....

i remember very well the one taking in Scotland and whether Scotland was going to "stay" in UK or not...

there was even a slight favor (outside the statistical error) in the final days (as per most of the polls) in terms of Scotland getting out of UK and starting on "its own" ....

what happened?

the ones in favor of Scotland going "solo" didnt head to vote versus the ones who wanted to stay

no need to say who's vote "counted"....


i believe the same scenario is going to take place here...


btw remember the Greek one?

the polls had it as a "YES"... most of the "yesman" didnt go to vote and the "NO" ones got more stubborn to actually go and vote...

of course Tsipras didnt expect that and was "forced" to get it the way he originally had planned at the end.... but i dont want to discuss this because its getting way too political...



moreover in the Greek situation the whole saga was oversold before the elections and after the results for the rest few months EUR got stronger (heading to 1.17 area)....

i believe the same case is taking place right now with GBP.... its way too oversold... and no matter the final result its going to get stronger (besides of course of a typical "final overselling" in case of a "LEAVE" result)


to answer your question no trade on any of the "european related crosses" ( ie EUR, CHF etc incl GBP) until the result

you should may be first read this

"There is an incredible theory that a Brexit won't actually happen even if the public votes for it"
http://uk.businessinsider.com/green-...-brexit-2016-6

no offense but i dont like theories...

i dont know what will happen after the final result thats why i more or less gave my "theory" as to what is going to take place tradingwise


btw i have seen firsthand the Greek referendum as i live in greece and i was beforehand saying whatever the vote the "end result" was going to be the same...


the only thing that surprised me to be honest was the huge "clear" gap in favor of NO.... i expected a smaller one...

then you should stop trading today.........

Thats the main issue right now. The brexiters are hard votes OUT, active in the street and online, vocal and large chunk of them of are not working in large and busy cities like London and will 100% chances go to Vote.

While the large majority of normal but passive remain voters are usually too 'busy' to remember (although with the amount of noise in the press I suspect it will be different) or bother to give you an opinion in favour and are like most of educated people SICK of so much BS and lies and want this to be over asap.

So its a open race. The momentum is with the Brexiters because they are noisy and represent the antiestablishment so it gets fashionable because of the media coverage but the majority if they would vote all of them I still think will be 60% / 40% and even larger in the big cities to stay but that is fantasy land in terms of vote % so race is still wide open with momentum toward exit.

sisse

how you setup your trades?
cuz you have predictions or forecasts
why?
cuz you work on your chart and/or fundumental and you create your theories to risk your funds
and the person dont like theories

words talked without thingking

thats what i have already did as i mentioned above.... i will start trading euro area currencies and their crosses.... the moment the actual result is out

until then the market is full of alternative options for speculations

As always, I'm joking. And not joking. Honestly, I don't understand the utter depths of self-loathing it must take to allow one's culture to be destroyed. Or is "culture" now even a passé concept, unwelcome in the sterile vacuum of post-modernism? I'm old, I still have living uncles whose brothers never made it back from Europe, from the last time fascism threatened to "unify" Europe. I don't know what you are offering to replace nationalism with? Clearly, a lot of people there think it is with something worse.