The Really Useless Thread

I know in SELL OUTLOOK you sell at Extremes and Inside out; but, you have to get in synch with the legs or moves as well. I don't do well in this style and your iterations helped me. GBP is a different beast as it can run 200 to 300 pips at times in a day.


sisse states "we just cleared 1st target which is the right place for a very healthy position management for the mover and shakers that will only start from tomorrow onwards. Lets see how it goes..."

You are saying that the .4100 is a healthy position to SCALE IN and SHORT for the Move to .364X or 2009 LOWS? The Mover and Shakers will move it to the LOWS? I am confused as you are saying just crumbs left in .40XX level; yet, you said you are expecting GBP to test the LOWS of 2009. Please help me understand this. Thanks

And, embarrassing enough I did not take a NEW SHORT at the .44XX break as I wanted to so much!!!! I couldn't due to a stupid position I took in GBP back in March 2016 at .4010 and have held onto it along with my ignorant positions in EU at .086X and .0945. I have been locked in for awhile...BUT LEARNING. I have lost more opportunities to trade good R;R trades because I had a machine gun mentality at that time and over leveraged due to the big moves in both currencies opposite of my positions.

You are getting very confuse on trading management. Why on earth would you load(or reload/add) when price just hit a main target after +500 ticks in a few days?

Try to backtrack this conversation with a chart next to it and I will add you a 'nugget' from the conversation on the 7th June with the entry so you can map it out yourself.

Crumbs left are to the final target for the last short term position open. We already have a superb swing the extras is just a homerun trade so its nothing to see but to clear it with the FED.

On the rest for a break down and complete the main target in the mid term swing we will need either Dollar breaking via rates to carry Sterling, Brexit for the risk play or both for a clean sweep ...

sisse

GU was a perfect setup. Got s/o with the squeeze to 1.43, but great run. I still have to work on spotting the difference between a reversal and a 'squeeze'. Still holding my SP500 shorts though, with tight stops.

sisse writes: "Of course !!!!. Is the trade of the year if it pans out. 1.444x still holding and is the only rain maker as discussed yesterday. Actively looking for entries on the rally...

Yes on the sharp spike moves intraday. It's and will be for the upcoming weeks a wild beast:

-> First because Sterling stopped a long time ago being a major world currency and is rather illiquid and tiny
-> and second and more importantly is in the middle of a potential huge storm way beyond the scope of the British flows alone.

The maps are crystal clear in GU for both in or out and all cards are on the table so basically is trading time."

IMARICH1 writes: This is what I am referring too. If GU clears MAIN SHORT TERM Target at .4100 and crumbs left around .40XX this is strictly regarding the SHORT TERM LEG. And, we should expect a bounce from here back up but below the .44XX handle? Then, that would be an area to SHORT for the MID TERM LEG to 2009 LOWS at .364X and below?

This is where I am getting confused because I know the OUTLOOK for GU is SELL in Short, Mid and Long Term. We have hit Main target in SHORT TERM but not the PRIMARY target for MID TERM LEG. LONG TERM Target is .26XX. Am I way off on this?

You keep ignoring the difference between direction and current swings and more importantly keep mixing up the current swing with news flows.

I am going to keep posting the exactly same chart we have used as a base with exactly the same comment until is clear.



One more time the same points:

1. We trade expectations not facts.
2. The sooner you get in synch with expectations, the better and less risk you will have.
3. Map your direction for swinging before trying to trade.
4. Macro direction (outlook) will give you the path of least resistance to trade with the best r:r, lower drawdown, and better w%.
5. In general, the smaller news, reports and etc give you a good benchmark of the ebb and flow of the current leg(wave/short term swing/or whatever you call it).
6. Even if you spot TA wise a potential retrace/pullback against your direction. Don't be a sucker trading!!!! as sure you will get one or two but you WILL NEVER get consistent results and more importantly you will get burnt sooner rather than later.

Now with those points and that sketch in mind:

1. What happen if we fail to take the lows in GU because of a dovish FED a UK in vote or simply out of volatility to shake out the last hands before a break down?
   1. Well NOTHING. Thats why you trade expectations not facts. You will get a scratch trade with the reaming in the worst case scenario and try again, Who cares !!!!
   2. We already cleared 1st target in the mid term and have a nearly homerun (so far) in the short term leg so in simple words:
   3. No break no shake no nothing.

​Your main issue is that you are trying to trade a swing as it were a simple and DIRECT news flow play like a NFP, inflation, GDP numbers or whatever and ITS NOT !!!. You are waiting for a major confirmation that will pretty much kill the move already by the time you try to jump in/clear/confirm/etc.

You are afraid to believe that markets move because of expectations in value (of whatever instrument and whatever the reasons) and thinking that a couple of predefined by some esoteric force of nature squiggly lines will decide the direction and value of a market.

Don't get me wrong, sure there are plenty of TA setups for trading and I use TA every single day but my point is if you want to be in synch with the markets YOU MUST be in SYNCH with expectations (even if there are not the ones you think should be !!!!). The TA part come just after when you need to actually place a trade.

In this case, there is no in a million years you will jump here without a break. Moreover, with short, mid and long term aligned to one side have fun fading the move as I wont be joining you even if GU rally 500 ticks tomorrow. Why? because the money is in consistency and risk management not in jumping in every potential trade ....

So as long as there is no changes in the outlook or expectations, like always and I hope you by now get the point I make almost every single day when talking about a swing already in play: Same levels, same trades, same all !!!

sisse

...markets entering in hypersensitive mode lots of noise expected in the following weeks....

For now loud gossips in the street of SNB ready to intervene in the currency market as early as this week to preempt Brexit flows.... take it with a pinch of salt given the circumstances but with the last few years of SNB history of poor management and intervention .... something is cooking in the background. For those with short term memory the SNB has overreacted before and capitulated right after in every single major risk play since 2008...

Whatever the case, tighten your seatbelt and better be safe than sorry as we are in full risk mode on...

sisse

sisse,

Thanks for taking time to explain; but, you are correct that I do mix flows/swings/legs up. On the SELL OUTLOOK chart it shows TRADE the Expectations at the TOP when everyone else is trading the TREND. SMART MONEY is seeing the change coming.

1. Did this change start at .444x in GBP and .128X in EU?
2. Is the MOMENTUM Line for GU at .38Xx or .36XX and .082X in EU?
3. I give up on the FLIP as I had .434X as a FLIP in GU and .105X in EU. A FLIP is a spot that PA goes to more times than not and goes thru or reverses. Its a CHOP ZONE especially on Lower Time Frames.

I have a hard time identifying diff FLIP areas and MOMENTUM on a SHORT and MID Term Maps. Chester123 posted two which I had similar levels but you said your MAP was different.

A. Trading Expectations must align with OUTLOOK. We are in an AGGRESSIVE SELL OUTLOOK SHORT TERM in GU and SELL in MID and LONG TERM
and NEUTRAL in SHORT TERM, SELL MID and LONG TERM in EU.

If I Trade expectations, which are FED not raising rates for June but may in July. Brexit gaining momentum for LEAVE. Therefore, I would be trading SHORT on both of these expectations as I believe NFP flop short circuit already priced in and we are trading possible hike in July now for EU and the fact Brexit is possible.

---->However, I would NOT fade a GU move due to expectations and OUTLOOK. I was simply seeing why you said crumbs at .40XX level when you are looking at the 2009 LOWS .364X to be taken or tested. I believe what you are trying to tell me is we have moved 500 pips in this SHORT TERM SWING and its possible we could get a retrace/pullback from this level to shake out more SHORTS. If we retraced 500 pips, I would be looking to add to my SHORT. Ignorant?

I do believe there is a light-bulb that has not come on yet and this is why I am frustrating you along with myself. You state not to TRADE the FACTS and ONLY EXPECTATIONS and I understand this; but, at the LOWER part of your Chart where FINAL TARGET is, you have TRADE the FACT. Therefore, is this when the OUTLOOK finally changes from SELL to BUY?

Thanks for trying to explain!!!

+++++Opening table for the 1st Iteration in the second round to STAY in synch with the market short term+++++

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper and advanced R:R. It's titled: Risky Rates and its aim to introduce a more advanced trade management environment.

--> Choose your poison ASAP. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all. Hopefully updates will come in a live automatic table soon...

3 options for this complex iteration. No time limit for longs or shorts:

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.120x++++

Risky Rates

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

No touch (for 3 days) | 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) | 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

This iteration is expected to go dynamic and prolly extend for the next 2 or 3 legs so jump in as it may not open again. Its a more complex TA environment with a very tricky FA in play so its aim to those who has ask questions about advanced trade management.

sisse

lmt sell 1.125x [expectations : risk via Brexit + slightly hawkish FED ]

Trade expectation: No hike in June nor in July. Therefore, Limit buy=> 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

I would like to place a short.
Thanks

--> Question 11: Rates or Risk. June FED with major risk event on sight how would you trade the next legs?

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.120x++++

Risky Rates

IN

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl

No touch (for 3 days) | 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) | 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

hoom

clayjay

eborn

chester123

Thanks hoom and Fadhi..the first one to take the plunge is always the hardest ...GL if you are trading live...


sisse

correct- I'm showing GU clearing large targets as well, seems as if the poll bait is being swallowed hook line and sinker....

no brexit could provide a very juicey long, otherwise the time to short brexit has passed for me and if it went through would more trigger all of my current positions to close and me to be on the sidelines for quite some time

you've said yourself panic legs do well with mofu, here we are. Watching 1.4050, 1.4005, or 1.3875-1.3890 for possible entries. The bold has 3 technical confluences only if no brexit is confirmed

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Small typo in the LMT SELL. Although I would sell 1.25 any time

Expecting no hike, but risk will trigger the next leg down.

Im going short!

LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1

As much as I would like to SHORT as I believe NO HIKE but HAWKISH FED for July; I have to chose NEUTRAL since we are still in OUTLOOK NEUTRAL SHORT TERM for EU. I believe the FED no hike is already priced in.

In NEUTRAL you trade the EXTREMES and NOT INSIDE to OUT. DO NOT TRADE in the MIDDLE. We are in the Middle of .14XX and .109X

We trade expectations and NOT the FACT.

Taking a NEUTRAL Position (only if sisse OUTLOOK is NEUTRAL still for EU SHORT TERM)
No touch (for 3 days) | 1.110x or 1.130x and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) | 1.100x or 1.140x | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Thank you

-> LMT SELL 1.125x -> TP1 => 1.117x | TP2 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.117x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

I will sell if still open thanks

Try a long one here.
-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.123x | TP2 => 1.1350 | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*