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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #18,241
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:15pm Jun 10, 2016 4:15pm
Quoting geektrader
{quote} Ah, really? LOL I was either speculating if people sit on more short or more long positions. Right before market close people usually close their positions, so if price moves up right before, theyve been sitting on more shorts and vice versa.
Yea that's prob true
  • #18,242
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:26pm Jun 10, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Yes I use Fibbonacci levels. I usually look at the 38.2, 61.8, 100, and 161.8 levels. I always view where the trend is going based on the higher time frames, and I open my trades based on price movement for the 4-hour time frame......ideally with the Daily chart trending. Right now the GBP/JPY is on a wave 3 on the daily chart by my count, going down, about to touch the 61.8 retracement level.
Gotcha. Yea me too, but with the new daily low i now have us working on 5. I have 3 ending on 4/7 and 4 ending with the recent high on 5/31
  • #18,243
  • Jun 10, 2016 5:39pm Jun 10, 2016 5:39pm

Goldman Sachs Strategy for Brexit :


Goldman Sachs knows what to do with the pound on the Brexit vote

As was the case for all major currencies, Sterling went up in response to the very weak US Jobs report on Friday (June 3), but in relative terms it underperformed. The GBP depreciated vis-a-vis the G-10 currencies (with the exception of the USD), a trend that picked up again about ten days ago, when polls on the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union suggested again that the outcome would be a close call.
As we approach the referendum date, positioning around the event remains an important macro theme, and in this FX Views we provide an update on our thinking on Sterling.
Attached Image
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1465535368

 

  1. After the referendum, if voters decide that the UK should continue to be a member of the European Union, EUR/GBP could move sharply towards our 12-month forecast of 0.70. If there is a vote to leave the EU, we estimate that Sterling could weaken by about 10% in trade-weighted terms due to the uncertainty that such an outcome would create. According to our estimates, EUR/USD could fall by about 4%.
  2. Tactically, over the next couple of weeks (until June 23), we think risk-reward is for downside in Sterling, which in trade-weighted terms is still about 2% above its lows at the end of February.
  3. We prefer GBP/USD downside to EUR/GBP upside. GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF downside are two other risk-off trades that we would expect to perform well in the event of a 'Leave' vote. By contrast, we do not like GBP/JPY downside.



Anyone believe goldman sachs strategy posted on the public domain??
Scoobi Doobi Doo

  • #18,244
  • Jun 10, 2016 6:08pm Jun 10, 2016 6:08pm
Great reading thanks for the input.....not following that brexit too closely yet, I read the vote was the 23rd...

Quoting Pip-Miner
Goldman Sachs Strategy for Brexit : Goldman Sachs knows what to do with the pound on the Brexit vote As was the case for all major currencies, Sterling went up in response to the very weak US Jobs report on Friday (June 3), but in relative terms it underperformed. The GBP depreciated vis-a-vis the G-10 currencies (with the exception of the USD), a trend that picked up again about ten days ago, when polls on the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union suggested again that the outcome would be a close call. As we approach...
  • #18,245
  • Jun 10, 2016 9:21pm Jun 10, 2016 9:21pm
guess next week open with gap and its can move to 140

then after votes back to 160
email me : pipspro88@gmail
  • #18,246
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:05pm Jun 10, 2016 10:05pm
Quoting Cm7
Already Sell @ 154,782 slightly above fibo. Target is 152,000 a little bit below S3. Give back @ 155,782. {image}
Ya ya ya , thank you market
  • #18,247
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:25pm Jun 10, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting geektrader
{quote} Interesting, heaps of posts to justify several long positions that are all completely under water right now. Theory and reality are always something different, arent they?
You're right bro, because there is no forex theories that suggest to buy in strong bearish condition.
  • #18,248
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:43pm Jun 10, 2016 10:43pm
my old buddy Robert p balan said.....I lost track of him for 9 years.....
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  • #18,249
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:45pm Jun 10, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} Gotcha. Yea me too, but with the new daily low i now have us working on 5. I have 3 ending on 4/7 and 4 ending with the recent high on 5/31
Hmmmmmm I'm a little confused could u explain a little more please?
  • #18,250
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:46pm Jun 10, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
Goldman Sachs Strategy for Brexit : Goldman Sachs knows what to do with the pound on the Brexit vote As was the case for all major currencies, Sterling went up in response to the very weak US Jobs report on Friday (June 3), but in relative terms it underperformed. The GBP depreciated vis-a-vis the G-10 currencies (with the exception of the USD), a trend that picked up again about ten days ago, when polls on the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union suggested again that the outcome would be a close call. As we approach...


Interesting we'll see how this plays out! They don't like GBP/JPY downside LOL
  • #18,251
  • Jun 10, 2016 10:52pm Jun 10, 2016 10:52pm
recent guess by him
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  • #18,252
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:01pm Jun 10, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Interesting we'll see how this plays out! They don't like GBP/JPY downside LOL
too volatile for the office boys. Interesting most of the emphasis of the article was on a UK exit - we all know this will end up like the Scottish referendum and the bankers be buying the crap out of this. The fact that people have the gitters suggests more downward movement for the next week leading up , then a boom up on the result is my bet.
  • #18,253
  • Edited 1:24am Jun 11, 2016 1:06am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Hmmmmmm I'm a little confused could u explain a little more please?
5 is now confirmed as it has made a new low. Where it stops...no body knows. 1 was about 1500 pips so im gonna guess this goes at least 1500. So past 147 looks like a good target to me. although past 141 makes sense
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  • #18,254
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:19am Jun 11, 2016 4:19am
I wish I had a yearly chart, or at least a chart displaying back before 1992. Because I think we're missing something quite big. This still has something to do with the gap of 1992 and subsequent consolidation since then. Kind of still feel there's something lurking not far from here.
  • #18,255
  • Edited 5:51am Jun 11, 2016 5:30am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting Mpt
I wish I had a yearly chart, or at least a chart displaying back before 1992. Because I think we're missing something quite big. This still has something to do with the gap of 1992 and subsequent consolidation since then. Kind of still feel there's something lurking not far from here.
Here Mpt
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"You may say I am a dreamer .... but I am not the only one."
  • #18,256
  • Jun 11, 2016 10:48am Jun 11, 2016 10:48am
Quoting guesser
{quote} Here Mpt {image} {image}
Thank you for posting that. I rarely go that far back.

Anyways, as soon as you did, this is what popped out to me on the chart.
So, to me it looks like some type of flat and on the RSI it looks like its getting close to bottoming out. Maybe after this brexit thing it will continue back up to the top of the channel.Also, take notice of the time period between 2009 and 2012 and the very bullish price divergence. Also, the downward slope of the pattern still leads me to believe that it is overall bullish. But patterns fail all the time so who knows.

The 126.7 area is the 100 extension for what i believe to be wave 5 so i guess its possible for price to reach there but i think we will need brexit for that.
If you look at the weekly, The RSI has been bottomed out and is showing good bullish divergence on it and the 2nd oscillator i use, the MACD4C is also beginning to show signs of divergence.

Overall, I think its reasonable to shoot for the upper trend line after the completion of this move down.
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  • #18,257
  • Jun 11, 2016 12:34pm Jun 11, 2016 12:34pm
brexit aside. relief rally should be next week's theme, driven by data. at least until yellow line which was the range prior to Scottish referendum. which so happens to coincide with the 38% fibo freefall from 31/05 - present.
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  • #18,258
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:47pm Jun 11, 2016 3:47pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} too volatile for the office boys. Interesting most of the emphasis of the article was on a UK exit - we all know this will end up like the Scottish referendum and the bankers be buying the crap out of this. The fact that people have the gitters suggests more downward movement for the next week leading up , then a boom up on the result is my bet.
Yea thats very possible, but for how long though LOL
  • #18,259
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:08pm Jun 11, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Yea thats very possible, but for how long though LOL
I sad reality is that GBP/JPY can move 1-2% in a heartbeat, which leaves people trading with even 50:1 leverage and no leverage at the hands of the market.

It is clear to see most of us swing trade or have some sort of bias towards one direction, but it would seem much easier to trade this pair day by day and not carry any trades over night. What do you guys think?
@GJscalper I've turned a new leaf. No more trolling.
  • #18,260
  • Jun 11, 2016 5:37pm Jun 11, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting GJscalper
{quote} I sad reality is that GBP/JPY can move 1-2% in a heartbeat, which leaves people trading with even 50:1 leverage and no leverage at the hands of the market. It is clear to see most of us swing trade or have some sort of bias towards one direction, but it would seem much easier to trade this pair day by day and not carry any trades over night. What do you guys think?
I never carry a dragon trade to the next day. I cant stomach watching a 100 pip turn against me.
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